ANALYSIS: Luttwack argues for break-up of Iran Written by Randy Talbot Thursday, 08 March 2007 http://www.ufppc. <http://www.ufppc.org/content/view/5888/35/> org/content/view/5888/35/ The First Post, which fancies itself "Britain's sharpest online magazine," posted a disturbing article Friday in which a significant U.S. strategic thinker argued against détente with Iran and for the encouragement of Iran's break-up.[1] -- Edward Luttwack argued that "Viewed from the inside, Iran is hardly the formidable power that some see from the outside. The natural outcome of increasing popular opposition to extremist rulers, of widening ethnic divisions, and bitter Sunni resentment of Shia oppression is the break-up of Iran." -- Edward Luttwack wrote his best known book at the ripe old age of 26: Coup d'État: A Practical Handbook. -- At 65 he remains a significant figure in the stable of U.S. national security state intellectuals.... THERE IS NO NEED FOR DÉTENTE WITH IRAN By Edward Luttwack ** Viewed from the inside, Iran is hardly the formidable power that some see from the outside There is no need for detente with Iran America should encourage the country's break-up from within ** First Post March 2, 2007 http://www.thefirst <http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/index.php?menuID=1&subID=1189> post.co.uk/index.php?menuID=1&subID=1189 Almost everyone in Washington agrees that Iran is the big winner in the Middle East power competition and the United States is the big loser. Instead of the hostile Taliban, Iran now has a friendly Afghan government on its eastern border; instead of having to face Saddam Hussein's regime, which inflicted huge casualties on its ragged armies, Iran has nothing to fear from an Iraqi government dominated by its friends and obedient clients, many of whom lived as protected exiles in Iran for 20 years or more. The U.S., having crushed Iran's enemies, now finds itself under attack by Iran's rulers, who no longer have to focus on defending their own borders, and can instead challenge American interests all over the Middle East, and as far away as Venezuela. Meanwhile, the building of Iranian facilities to process, gasify, and enrich uranium continues without interruption. For some, all this is a compelling argument for negotiations with Iran, in the hope that its mighty rulers can be persuaded to stop arming and inciting the insurgents who are attacking American and British troops in Iraq. Now there is even talk of a détente with Iran, that being the standard diplomatic method to deal with a hostile country too powerful to be intimidated or defeated, with which one must simply coexist on the best terms that can be had. In this case, it would necessarily mean coexistence with Iran's continued support for Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, and three different Iraqi militias, as well as Iran's nuclear program. Detente cannot be rejected when the realities of power allow no better choice. But back in the 1970s, détente with the Soviet Union was bitterly criticized on the grounds that it actually propped up a regime that was in irreversible decline. In the 1980s, the critics of that détente, led by President Reagan, had their opportunity to challenge the Soviet Union. Before the decade was over, they had succeeded. Iran is not the Soviet Union and certainly does not have even a fraction of its military power. But it too is a multinational state, in an age when nations are everywhere asserting their separate identities. Not only regime spokesmen but also many Persians in exile continue to speak of an Iranian state inhabited by "Iranians", who are said to be very nationalistic even if they oppose the ayatollahs. This is often repeated to argue that there is universal support, or near enough, for Iran's nuclear program. But this does not remotely correspond with Iran's ethnic realities: Persians account for no more than half of Iran's population, and the other half includes many different nationalities that are increasingly resentful of Persian cultural imperialism. Kurds, for instance, account for some nine per cent of the population, and their nationalism is Kurdish not Persian, having been much strengthened by the successful example of virtual Kurdish independence in Iraq next door. If Iran's economy were strong, ethnic divisions and even religious resentments would matter less. As it is, with at least 20 per cent unemployment and an annual inflation rate of 30 per cent, Iran's economy is scarcely a unifying force. Viewed from the inside, Iran is hardly the formidable power that some see from the outside. The natural outcome of increasing popular opposition to extremist rulers, of widening ethnic divisions and bitter Sunni resentment of Shia oppression is the break-up of Iran. There is no reason why Iran should be the only multinational state to resist the nationalist separatism that destroyed the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, divided Belgium in all but name, and has decentralized Spain and even the United Kingdom. As with the Soviet Union, there is a better alternative to détente with a repulsive regime -- and that is to be true to the Wilsonian tradition of American foreign policy by encouraging and helping the forces of national liberation within Iran. [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------ Yahoo! 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