Al Qaeda's Strength 'Undiminished' in Iraq

Despite U.S. Assertions, Terrorists Thriving in Iraq, Senior Military
Official Says

By JONATHAN KARL

http://abcnews.go.com/print?id=3366118

 

July 11, 2007 -

 

While the military has maintained that Al Qaeda is on the run in Iraq, by
any number of measures the terror group and its affiliates are as strong as
ever and June was the most violent month since the start of the war, a
senior U.S. military official tells ABC News.

 

Watch the report tonight on World News With Charles Gibson at 6:30 p.m. EDT

 

"Despite our successes in taking out leaders and infrastructure," said the
official, "Al Qaeda's operational capability appears to be undiminished."

 

Al Qaeda operations are marked by the use of suicide bombers and the latest
intelligence assessment shows that suicide attacks were near an all-time
high in May and June. According to the report, Al Qaeda in Iraq is
responsible for 15 percent of the attacks in the country, often the most
deadly. Sunni insurgents are blamed for 70 percent of attacks, and Shia
militias 15 percent. Shia attacks, however, have sharply increased and are
now probably higher than 15 percent.

 

ABC News has learned the most recent military intelligence assessment of
Iraq also shows that the overall level of violence in the country --
measured as the number of "violent incidents" -- hit its highest level in
June since the war began.

 

According to the assessment, an average of 178 attacks a day were carried
out in June. By comparison, there were only 94 attacks a day in March 2006,
the month after the attack on the Golden Mosque in Samarra touched off a
wave of sectarian violence.

 

The record level of violence comes despite significant progress in a few key
areas. Anbar province, for example, was once the most dangerous area in Iraq
and has experienced a turnaround a senior military official calls
"miraculous." Attacks on civilians are also down significantly. But in other
areas, the trends are in the wrong direction:

 

- The number of attacks on U.S. soldiers is way up, now accounting for 70
percent of all attacks in Iraq.

 

- While violence has dropped dramatically in Anbar province, the number of
attacks has risen sharply in four other provinces: Baghdad, Salahaddin,
Diyala and Basra.

 

- In June, there were a record 55 attacks with Iranian-made roadside bombs
-- so-called Explosively Formed Penetrators. This is the deadliest form of
roadside bomb seen in Iraq.

 

- Mortar attacks on the Green Zone have dramatically increased.

 

The increase in violence can be attributed to a sharp rise in attacks on
U.S. forces, including a record number of attacks with Iranian-made
explosives in June, as well as a sharp increase in attacks on Baghdad's
Green Zone, 90 percent of which are fired from Shia neighborhoods.

 

A progress report on Iraq is expected to be delivered to Congress by week's
end. President Bush has asked Congress to wait until September to see
whether signs of progress are being made in securing the country and
achieving political reconciliation .

 

The senior military official summarized the report as "insufficient progress
across the board" and says success in Iraq is not possible in the timeframe
that Congress and the American public have in mind.

 

While the Iraqi Parliament is now meeting six days a week and there has been
some slow progress, it is unlikely to see any legislative benchmarks
completed by September or even by the end of the year, the official said.

 

  
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