<http://counterterrorismblog.org/2008/07/the_threat_here_2008_setting_t.php> The Threat Here - 2008: Setting the Scene Today, July 21, 2008, 7 hours ago | Madeleine Gruen & Frank Hyland <http://counterterrorismblog.org/2008/07/the_threat_here_2008_setting_t.php> Go to full article http://counterterrorismblog.org/2008/07/the_threat_here_2008_setting_t.php This is the second article in the series by Madeleine Gruen and Frank Hyland, portraying the seriousness of the threat of homegrown terrorism in the United States for readers of The Counterterrorism Blog. We hasten to say right off the bat that regular readers of CT Blog are already the recipients of a detailed and continuing supply of very useful information on the threat of terrorism here in the United States. We are grateful for our CT Blog colleagues Steven Emerson, Doug Farah, Jeff Imm, Mike Cutler, and on and on. Nothing in this series is intended to supplant their excellent work. If anything, we hope to draw even more attention to their (and others') fine efforts in the past and in the future. Our goal is to draw together in this one series the signs of the continuing, emerging threat here so that policy makers and citizens of Main Street US alike will be better able to assess the true threat. As we noted in the introductory article, individual attacks, plots, perpetrators, investigations tend to lose their impact as time passes; the geographic spread of such indicators and incidents also makes it difficult to visualize the progression of the threat of domestic terrorism. Similarly, our professional lives in Counter Terrorism have shown us clearly that the phenomenon of terrorism knows no boundaries, respects no religion, and the perpetrators regard themselves as the only "innocents." Terrorism targets everyone indiscriminately regardless of their church, temple, synagogue or mosque. No one religion has cornered the market on violence. The highest calling within the CT Community is that of providing Timely Terrorist Threat Warning. In viewing the "landscape" of terrorism then, the many professionals who serve you by putting in long hours searching out threats do a good bit of "Threat Ranking." An important criterion is whether the threatening group has the presence, the level of intention, and the capability to carry out its threat. Certainly a number of groups around the world have expressed great antipathy for the US. Those groups, however, lacking the infrastructure here in the US and the necessary skills, do not have as great an ability to perpetrate an attack here as does Al-Qa'ida (AQ), for example. The other groups, therefore, are on our list, but are ranked lower on our list in terms of the threat they represent to you. It is for that reason that there may seem at first to be a preponderance of groups whose expressed motivation is based in Islam. As we do in an office setting, we present to you the greatest threats, ranked from (in our professional belief) most likely to least likely. The sole basis for their placement on our list that follows is their ability and desire to carry out an attack. The Groups: 1. Al-Qa'ida & Al-Qa'ida-Inspired Individuals or Groups: Given the steady torrent of media coverage devoted to groups such as AQ, it may surprise some readers to see an unnamed group or individual at the top of this list. It is here simply because, as we noted above, we are calculating the odds. In that process, we estimate that in a nation of over 300,000,000 people, with continuing relatively unencumbered legal and illegal access to weapons and explosives, and with the demonstrated past actions both here and abroad, the odds are high that someone will see coverage of an incident abroad - Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel - and react. It is this category, by the way, that has caused us to state in the introductory article and repeat above the effect that dispersion in time and place has on the recognition of patterns in the threat. The perpetrators are not necessarily members of a network, often do not know each other, and therefore leave no "tracks" to follow from one to the other. Usama Bin-Laden's goal in forming an organization known as "The Base" (Al-Qa'ida) has been achieved in large part; that is, that he would see his group metastasize around the globe in the form of groups, cells, and individuals all dedicated to his goals. Any doubts that remained about the seriousness of AQ's intentions after 9-11-2001 should have been erased forever by now. It is the first attack on the World Trade Center in 1993, however, that raised the initial alarms; but the professionals on the case who recognized the attack as part of something much bigger and more enduring were outnumbered by others who viewed the case as a unique matter that could be resolved by a traditional thorough investigation and solid arrests. The primary conspirator in the 1993 attack, Ramzi Yousef, arrived in New York to find an in-place network of like-minded individuals-devotees of Sheikh Omar Abdel Rahman-who welcomed him, housed him, supported him and carried out the attack on his behalf. The subsequent investigation of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing introduced the American public to names of individuals who went on to become the highest-ranking AQ operatives. But, with the passing of time and with physical distance, many have forgotten the ideological and operational links within the US. Those same links exist here today. Hardly a month goes by without reports - including official reports - telling all of us about the arrest of yet another Westerner who has been to an AQ training camp in Pakistan and/or Afghanistan. Added to those are the accounts of those in the UK, for example, of the AQ-inspired native-born men who carried out the attacks on London commuters in July 2005. As part of this series we will also introduce US-based groups that have no clear-cut physical ties to AQ, but that abide by the same ideological doctrines as AQ and which are unabashed supporters of AQ, such as As-Sabiqun. 2. White Nationalist Groups: They hate Jews, they believe that non-whites have no soul, and they anticipate with relish a violent revolution against the US Government, even if they have to start it. Many of the groups are armed to the teeth and have plenty of members with military backgrounds who have studied and practiced the intricacies of unconventional warfare. Members and supporters of white nationalism have committed murder and have pulled off major terrorist attacks, such as Timothy McVeigh, who killed 168 and injured more than 800 others in Oklahoma City, and Eric Robert Rudolph, whose pipe bombs killed 2 and injured more than 100 others during a celebratory concert at the Atlanta Olympics in 1996. White nationalist groups are on our list because of their intentions and potential capabilities; however, historically, their movement has been relatively disorganized, has lacked funding, and its adherents have not been as ideologically committed as they have been committed to a social network and cults of personality. This is an essential difference between the white nationalist movements and the militant Islamist groups. Nevertheless, given what we stated above about numbers of people, access to weapons and explosives and the likelihood of a triggering event, groups such as the National Socialist Movement, Stormfront, and the National Alliance must remain under a watchful eye. 3. Lebanese Hizballah: A group must have the access to weapons and explosives. They must have the motivation and the requisite skills in order to carry out a successful attack here. Another very important prerequisite, and the one that places Lebanese Hizballah (LH) on the list on this high a rung, is that LH has undoubtedly carried out the pre-attack surveillance necessary not only to carry out at least one attack, but to do it in short order after receiving the "Go" from their masters in Tehran and Beirut. Members of the group have insinuated themselves into many of the major metropolitan areas of the US. Their criminal activities (Please see Doug Farah's columns on, among other things, cigarette smuggling) provide them far more money than would be needed for an attack. We would be foolish to believe that LH has not already formulated the tactical plans for an eventual attack in the US. Their history in Buenos Aires, alone -- which we will recount - demonstrates conclusively that they belong on the list and on this rung. 4. Palestinian Islamic Jihad: Originally an offshoot of Egyptian Islamic Jihad, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) merits a place on the list by virtue of the fact that its so-called Military Wing - the Al-Quds Brigades - has been responsible for countless attacks on Israel from its base in the Gaza Strip, both suicide bombings and the firing of rockets. "Al-Quds," it should be mentioned, is the Arab alternative to "Jerusalem," demonstrating the group's hatred for the current arrangement. Against that backdrop of demonstrated capability and intent, you should be aware that PIJ has had an infrastructure in the US for decades. The quality and depth of that infrastructure was shown clearly following the assassination of PIJ leader Fathi Shqaqi in 1995, when University of South Florida Computer Engineering Professor Ramadan Shallah immediately left Florida, journeyed to the Middle East and assumed the chairmanship of PIJ. As is the case with other groups here in the US, including HAMAS, the Tamil Tigers, PIJ presently devotes the greatest share of its efforts to fund raising. We echo the words of others, though, in saying that the PIJ capability for carrying out attacks has been amply demonstrated. 5. HAMAS: In the relatively short time span of just 21 years, the group formed by ranking members of the Gaza wing of the Muslim Brotherhood has gone from a pure terrorist organization to a much more highly effective Palestinian movement that is now the Majority Party in the Legislative Council of the Palestinian Authority. As contrasted with PIJ, which has remained smaller and concentrated virtually solely on armed action against Israel, HAMAS mutated into a political party, opened schools, dispensed funds, provided foodstuffs, operated clinics, and challenged (successfully) the existing powers of Yasser Arafat's Palestinian Authority. CT Blog has presented readers over the years with what is likely the single most comprehensive, in-depth coverage of HAMAS' activities in the US. This is especially true of Steven Emerson's reporting on the lengthy legal proceedings against the largest HAMAS fund-raising arm-- The Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development-- at one time the leading Islamic charity in the US, extracting millions of dollars annually for its chosen "work" back home in Gaza and the West Bank. Even more strident than PIJ, HAMAS regularly and frequently trumpets its raining of rockets and the sending of suicide bombers to Israel. Notwithstanding its emphasis on fund raising here in the US, its diatribes signal its capabilities to carry out attacks here at a time of its choosing. 6. Hizb ut-Tahrir: Hizb ut-Tahrir (HT) is a transnational political Islamist organization that is present in approximately 45 countries, including the United States. In its more than 50 years of existence, HT has not been directly linked to a terrorist attack; its published ideological doctrine and strategy for development specifies non-violent means to reach its objectives, which are identical to AQ's. Although HT has not been designated a Foreign Terrorist Organization by the US government it is a group that merits a close watch due to its ability to radicalize and propel people along the spectrum of the acceptance of violent extremes. The group does not operate openly under the name Hizb ut-Tahrir in the United States, which makes even the matter of identification of its activities challenging. It is important to raise awareness of the indicators of HT's presence in the United States so that the communities exposed to the group can make informed decisions about whether or not to open their doors to HT and its particular brand of Islamism. In arriving at that decision, previous HT involvement should raise serious concerns in readers' minds. The quality and results of HT's recruitment and indoctrination efforts are perhaps most visible in the number of HT students and members who went on to greater notoriety. 7. Muslim Brotherhood: The Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is arguably the most influential of all Islamist groups, and perhaps the most controversial. Nearly every jihadist or political Islamist group that can be named is an offshoot of MB, or even an offshoot of an offshoot of MB. Many scholars have described the MB as a wily outfit that hides behind legitimizing fronts in the US and elsewhere. Although the MB has officially opposed violence as a means of achieving its objective of establishing an Islamic State ruled by Islamic law, its activities and statements have exposed its continued support for violent operations. While some scholars argue that the MB has reinvented itself and is a legitimate political actor that is sincere in its efforts to work cooperatively within democratic political systems to prevent future terrorist attacks, we and others in the CT Community will keep waiting and watching for MB's actions to match its words. 8. USA General Store: Finally, there are the terrorist groups that are not believed to have specific aspirations of committing a terrorist attack on US soil but that do exploit market systems, immigrant populations, and spotty national security systems to keep themselves in business, so to speak. Groups such as the Tamil Tigers have long used extortion tactics to extract funds from Tamil communities in the US. The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) depends on its network of drug peddlers in the United States to fatten its billfold. It should be remembered that, in addition to attacks inside the US, the threat of attacks on US interests abroad deserve serious consideration because of the thousands of Americans worldwide who staff those facilities. Foreign conflicts do have a tendency to spill over borders, and targets that are less secure because they are not in the obvious line of fire become more attractive. These groups have bases of support already in place, which makes it easier to conduct pre-operation surveillance, obtain explosives through means that would not necessarily draw the attention of law enforcement, and move operatives in and out of the US through legitimate-looking channels. (F)AIR USE NOTICE: All original content and/or articles and graphics in this message are copyrighted, unless specifically noted otherwise. All rights to these copyrighted items are reserved. 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