Unilateral Action by U.S. a Growing Fear in Pakistan 
By
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/p/jane_perlez/in
dex.html?inline=nyt-per> JANE PERLEZ
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/22/world/asia/22tribal.html?tntemail1=y
<http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/22/world/asia/22tribal.html?tntemail1=y&_r=1
&oref=slogin&emc=tnt&pagewanted=print>
&_r=1&oref=slogin&emc=tnt&pagewanted=print

ISLAMABAD,
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/pa
kistan/index.html?inline=nyt-geo> Pakistan - Strong suggestions by the
United States that it could resort to unilateral intervention against
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/a/al_qaed
a/index.html?inline=nyt-org> Al Qaeda and the
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/t/taliban
/index.html?inline=nyt-org> Taliban in Pakistan are generating increasing
anxiety in the Pakistani press and among government officials, who warn that
such an action could backfire. 

Over the last week, the Pakistani press has been filled with commentaries
warning that American attacks without Pakistan's permission would further
inflame anti-American sentiment, drive more people into the camp of the
militants and fatally undermine the already fragile civilian government.
Privately, one senior government official said American strikes would
produce "chaos." 

But the English-language newspapers have also stressed that the Pakistani
government has failed to deal with the Islamic militants, and they have made
repeated pleas in recent days for the government and the military to take on
the militants before Washington does the job, uninvited. 

"What is missing and is urgently required in Islamabad is a coherent policy"
for dealing with the militants in the tribal areas, said one in a series of
recent editorials in a leading newspaper, Dawn. The editorial continued:
"The world and all of Pakistan is looking to Islamabad for leadership and
vision. The time to act is running out very quickly."

Washington has increased the pressure in the past 10 days, asserting in
public statements and closed-door meetings with senior Pakistani officials
that the increase in the number of Pakistani Taliban fighters crossing from
the tribal areas into Afghanistan to fight
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/n/north_a
tlantic_treaty_organization/index.html?inline=nyt-org> NATO and American
forces was unacceptable. 

A spike in deaths of United States and NATO soldiers in Afghanistan in the
last two months has been largely attributed by American officials to the
flow of Pakistani Taliban into southern Afghanistan. 

American officials have also emphasized to Pakistani officials their concern
that Al Qaeda was plotting attacks on the United States from sanctuaries in
the tribal areas, a region of rugged territory adjacent to Afghanistan that
is now almost totally controlled by the Pakistani Taliban. 

President Bush said at a White House news conference last week that "some
extremists are coming out of parts of Pakistan into Afghanistan." He added,
"That's troubling to us, troubling to Afghanistan, and it should be
troubling to Pakistan." Such statements have been interpreted here as a sign
of rising American impatience with a lack of action to stem the tide of
militants by the Pakistani government. 

Senator
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/o/barack_obama/i
ndex.html?inline=nyt-per> Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee
for president, said on Sunday, while visiting Afghanistan, that if the
United States had "actionable intelligence against high-value Al Qaeda
targets, and the Pakistani government was unwilling to go after those
targets," the United States should strike. Mr. Obama, of Illinois, has been
viewed warily in Pakistan because of similar previous comments. 

Alarm in Pakistan about possible American intervention rose after a surprise
visit July 12 by the chairman of the
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/j/joint_c
hiefs_of_staff/index.html?inline=nyt-org> Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm.
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/m/michael_g_mull
en/index.html?inline=nyt-per> Mike Mullen, to Islamabad, where he met with
the army chief of staff, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani; the prime minister,
Yousaf Raza Gilani; and the president,
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/m/pervez_musharr
af/index.html?inline=nyt-per> Pervez Musharraf. 

It was Admiral Mullen's fourth visit in six months to see the nation's
leaders. Days afterward, reports about a buildup of NATO forces on the
border between Afghanistan and Pakistan added to Pakistani anxiety. 

A senior Pakistani government official familiar with the content of the
meetings with Admiral Mullen, who declined to be identified because public
statements were not released, said the admiral was informed that unilateral
action by the United States would be "counterproductive" and would result in
"chaos."

But the Americans did not recognize the downside of intervention, the
official said. "They don't see that," the official said. "They have tunnel
vision. They see more foreign fighters pouring in, more training, more
cross-border attacks." 

The Americans were right in their assessment that more fighters from
Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and a "spurt of Turks," had come to the
tribal areas to join the Taliban since the Pakistani government entered into
a peace accord with the leader of the Pakistani Taliban,
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/m/baitullah_mehs
ud/index.html?inline=nyt-per> Baitullah Mehsud, this spring, the official
acknowledged. 

The official said the Pakistanis had asked Admiral Mullen for infusions of
military equipment and the sharing of real-time intelligence, demands made
many times to visiting Americans in the past six months. 

The frequent request by the Pakistanis for the sharing of current
intelligence has been refused by the Bush administration because Washington
lacked confidence in what the Pakistani military might do with the
information, according to a former United States military officer who served
in Pakistan and spoke on condition of anonymity because of the delicate
nature of the situation. 

The Bush administration has given more than $10 billion in military aid to
Pakistan since 9/11, when President Musharraf agreed to become an ally in
the campaign against terrorism. Of that amount, $5.5 billion was
specifically intended for counterinsurgency efforts by the Pakistani Army. A
Congressional report this year said that Pakistan did not spend the $5.5
billion on counterinsurgency, and that the Bush administration had failed to
insist that it do so. 

"Improve our capability - you've been slow on that," the Pakistani official
said, describing the gist of the recent conversation with Admiral Mullen.
"We are fighting a war here. But the army is geared to peacetime." 

In unusually blunt terms, some of the commentaries in recent days in the
Pakistani English-language press have disputed that the army has actually
been fighting the Taliban or Al Qaeda at all. 

Hasan-Askari Rizvi, a defense analyst, wrote in Sunday's issue of The Daily
Times, a newspaper, that many in Pakistan's military and intelligence
leadership did not view the Taliban and other Islamic extremists as the main
threat to the Pakistani state. 

"They view Taliban violence as a reaction to the use of force against them
by Pakistan and the U.S., rather than a strategy to establish their hegemony
in the name of Islam," he said. 

It was understandable that American commanders would want to take unilateral
action against the Taliban, Mr. Rizvi wrote. But there was "no guarantee
that such an action would eliminate militancy in the area," he warned. 

"Rather, it may worsen the situation and increase American losses," he said.


In Washington, a new report on Pakistan by Daniel Markey, a senior fellow at
the
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/c/council
_on_foreign_relations/index.html?inline=nyt-org> Council on Foreign
Relations, cautioned against uninvited intervention in Pakistan. 

"The U.S. military would find Pakistan's tribal areas extremely tough
going," he said. "The primary challenge would come not from the militants or
terrorists but from the rest of Pakistan's 165 million people and army." 

He concluded, "Under almost any conceivable circumstance, the overwhelming
majority of Pakistanis would perceive a U.S. invasion of the tribal areas as
an attack on national sovereignty requiring resistance by every means
possible."

 
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