As mentioned earlier in the day, the media is off-base to focus on age in years. It is not the same as years in service or flight hours. Aircraft are never gauged in years but in the number of hours operated, and those numbers are weighted by the TYPE of service and conditions operated under. In this case, the 17-year old history of Qantas 747s is totally irrelevant because the age of this particular airframe is only a little less than nine years and, as mentioned before, the type of flying that Qantas typically does with its wide-bodies is vastly different than that done with many others. They don't do short hops where the fuselage is repeatedly expanded and contracted due to increases and decreases in air pressure at altitude. THAT is what causes the most metal fatigue in an airframe. And there is something else that few people know: the 747 is one particularly rugged design. It was actually over-built for its role as a passenger aircraft because it was originally designed to be a competitor with Lockheed's C-5 Galaxy as the USAF heavy lift transport plane during the CX competition. The plane was designed to carry massive loads. Failure to win that contract almost doomed Boeing, and turning it into a successful airliner was what saved the corporation from financial ruin. The plane is therefore much more robust than your average aircraft designed from the ground up as an airliner, and it can take a lot more punishment than you would at first think. That is precisely why it has survived so many previous bombing attempts. What happened to Pan Am 103 was something of a fluke, a bomb placed in just the right spot to maximize damage that might otherwise have been survivable. The fact that we had an explosion in this airframe, in almost the identical location (though on the opposite side) tends to make me believe that a device was deliberately planted by somebody who knew just where a certain luggage bin would be placed. Either that, or it was an incredible coincidence. As for the corrosion hogwash, let me put it this way: if this plane were the rusty hunk of junk that some have tried to paint it as being, a tiny hole should have unzipped the skin like a cheap pair of jeans. Just goes to show you how officials and the media will spew a kinds of nonsense about age, corrosion, poor maintenance, and any order of other things, and just wind up looking like idiots when the true research is done on the plane's background. This plane was not that old and, if it had been a corrosion nightmare, they would not simply have ignored it and placed a new interior in the plane, as is reported. It would have been fixed and, therefore, it might have been even more robust than one that had not been given an extensive inspection recently. My big concern with foreign maintenance is the lack of control and oversight that you have on who is working on it and their background checks. Malaysia is a Muslim country. Al-Qaeda could easily have an agent working in there to do sabotage, plant devices, or even simply gather intelligence on what the weak points of the various aircraft are. Ron
I concur with Ron; made the same analogy to Pan Am 103. Then there was the bomb threat to QF12 of last Sunday. Still digging for possible related data I found a report filed last Monday (21 July), just two days after the QF12 bomb threat (which officials said was a hoax) stating that Qantas is under fire for outsouring maintenance to foreign crews on foreign soil. Hong Kong, where QF30 departed from an hour prior to this explosive event, is one of those foreign maintance sites. http://www.theage.com.au/national/foreign-servicing-of-jets-kept-secret-2008 0720-3i9a.html?page=-1 Foreign servicing of jets kept secret * Richard Baker * July 21, 2008 AUDITS of overseas facilities used to service Australia's passenger jets are being kept secret by the nation's aviation safety regulator over fears their release could cause adverse publicity for foreign-owned maintenance companies. The Civil Aviation Safety Authority faces accusations of acting against the public interest by refusing to release 1000 pages from its audits of maintenance facilities in Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines and New Zealand during 2006 and 2007. The Australian Licensed Aircraft Engineers Association has sought the audits under the Freedom of Information Act. Its request was prompted by last year's leak of a scathing 2006 Qantas audit of work performed on one of its jets by the Singapore Airlines Engineering Company in Singapore. "The general quality trend appears to be heading in a negative direction with numerous quality deficiencies considered to be of a serious nature," the Qantas audit concluded. Last month, a Qantas 737 returned from overseas maintenance with 60 defects. CASA has repeatedly refused to release its overseas audit reports under freedom of information, claiming doing so could harm the maintenance companies due to "adverse publicity" and also reduce the effectiveness of future audits by inhibiting "frankness and candour". The aircraft engineers' association responded by saying the Australian public has a right to know the results of CASA's inspections of overseas facilities, and adverse publicity would only occur if substandard maintenance practices had been identified. The association has applied to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal to direct CASA to release the documents. The fight over CASA's secret audits comes amid reports of a big increase in the number of Australian passenger jets being outsourced for maintenance by overseas contractors. A recent Senate inquiry into CASA's administration was told by the engineers' association that the number of Qantas aircraft outsourced for maintenance in overseas facilities had increased from 2% in 2002 to 20% this year. The airline and the association are locked in a bitter industrial dispute over outsourcing and pay. An association spokesman told The Age CASA's refusal to disclose the overseas audits make it difficult for engineers to certify the safety of aircraft because they were not given all relevant information about its maintenance history and the people responsible for the work. CASA deputy chief executive Michael Quinn told the Senate inquiry earlier this month that all overseas maintenance facilities providing services to Australian carriers were audited annually. The report from the Senate inquiry into CASA's administration is due by the end of next month. Engineers say it is difficult to certify safety of aircraft without the relevant information. Other details about QF30: Australian Aircraft Registration: VH-OJS Boeing 747-438 346 Pax/19 crew Rolled off Boeing production line at Everett, WA - August 29, 1999 First flight: September 30, 1999 First Commerical Flight as QF119 (Sydney to Auckland): October 12, 1999 VH-OJS registered to Yarra Leasing Ltd since November 14, 2005 -------------- Original message -------------- From: "Beowulf" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Some prelim analysis by ex-USAF intel: Almost certainly an explosive device. The right wing root fairing is gone and, initially, I thought maybe a seam loosened and some air flow got in to pry it from the fuselage. However, that would not expose the baggage, which is said to be visible through a small hole. Baggage is stored in large metal containers, not just stuffed into the luggage bay, so you would have to compromise both the wall of the luggage container and the fuselage wall. Cargo hold is separate from the main cabin, so a compromise of the luggage compartment should not have any effect on the passenger cabin, meaning that much more damage was sustained internally than is evident from the limited photos out right now. Philippine airport official is wrong in describing the hole as 7-9 ft in diameter. Actual hull penetration is just a foot or two, at most. The green area you see in photos is the hull area (zinc chromate green anti-corrosion painting) hidden behind aerodynamic wing fairing. No real structural compromise on the wing, or she would have gone down for sure. This is just forward of the main centerline fuel tank and in the exact same location as Pan Am 103, though on the opposite side of the plane. Just stopped over in Hong Kong on way from London to Australia. China has just had multiple bus bombings. UK and Australia are prime al-Qaeda targets, now China for visibility and issues with Uighur Muslims. This is a trifecta of all three countries. Downing a plane just weeks before the Olympics would put a huge damper on the games, and you get a plus in taking out people from two other countries considered major AQ enemies in the terror fight. Also, hot summer--somebody could get away with nonsense of claiming hot fuel tank, like TWA 800. You will also recall that just 8 days ago, I predicted that something like this was likely to happen and that 2-3 days ago, I said that the bus bombings in China were just the beginning. It will escalate. Look for more. The luggage hold is not pressurized, so there should not have been a decompression of any kind, much less an explosive one. There are areas where pressurization exists, for pets and live cargo, but a chunk of internal framing and skin is ripped outward and upward. That is not only against the airflow but not in an area where detachment of an outer fairing should have caused any skin damage. Need a closer look at the metal but VERY suspicious at this stage. Fox news online is reporting that there were concerns earlier this year on corrosion. Ok, if there were concerns, they would have been addressed rather than just noted, especially if you were doing an interior refit as claimed. Makes no sense to pour a lot of money into an internal refit that will all have to be yanked out for corrosion repair later. The photos do show some brownish areas but don't forget that most of the fuselage is made of aluminum and it does not get browning corrosion from iron oxide (rust color). Aluminum corrosion is a powdery gray-white, and the only corrosion that would have any impact on this incident is structural corrosion in fuselage/wing components made primarily of structural aluminum. The brownish color is often from corrosion preventive compounds swabbed on the metal and its fasteners, not from rust. Even if any of these components are steel and suffering from ferrous oxide corrosion, keep in mind that sudden heat will cause what is known as heat-induced corrosion. Heat from explosives bonds oxygen to the metal and oxidizes it immediately, creating a rusty color. What I found amazing is that this incident just happened within less than 24 hours and, already, a new organization appears to have dug up a story to explain what could have happened. Nonsense. These people don't know enough about planes to figure out which one gets pointed into the sky first. They may have noted a rusty-colored spot and assumed corrosion, but it just reveals their ignorance. Not one has yet pointed out that cargo in these planes is put into large bins. You simply cannot just toss loose luggage into these massive holds and then take out individual bags. You would be there all day and night with 369 passengers. Even if the wall of the plane gave way to corrosion, what happened to the wall of the luggage bin??? The media also talks about rivets on the fairing and about how it is metal. They are not rivets, but screws. This fairing comes off, and in all likelihood, it is made of fiberglass, not aluminum, since it is an aerodynamic fairing and not a structural member. Riveted items are permanent and structural members are metal. Detachable items are held with screws and made of composites or fiberglass. Look at the trailing edge of the fairing and you see a whole strip of empty holes for screws. Ron The 't-word' has been invoked in a three-page article by timesonline.co.uk. The first two pages (copied below) have all of the meat and potato substance. There were 346 pax and 19 crew onboard. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article4396805.ece July 25, 2008 Qantas 747 terror could have been caused by bomb, say aviation experts The hole blown in the side of the Boeing 747 on flight from London to Melbourne, could have been caused by an explosive device or a damaged fuselage, according to aviation experts. Passengers on the flight have described their terror after a panel on the side of the aircraft was ripped off in midair, blowing a hole in the fuselage. Qantas flight QF30, with 300 passengers and crew on board, plunged 20,000ft after the missing panel caused an "explosive" depressurisation. Expert View Opening quote <http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/img/global/header-opening-quote.gif> It's possible that there was some kind of explosive device in the suitcases because there's a hole where there shouldn't be Closing quote <http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/img/global/header-closing-quote.gif> David Learmount, Safety Editor of Flight International Magazine David Learmount, Safety Editor at Flight International Magazine, said: "It's possible there was some kind of explosive device in the suitcases. There's a hole where there shouldn't be." But he stressed that other possible causes for the damage included physical damage or a corrosive that weakened the hull, making it give way. He said the hole had exposed some bags in the hold which are usually contained in metal containers. "It's interesting to see them - how else could that be if not an explosion? Bags are moved about quite roughly in the hold and the plane was built in 1991 so it has seen a lot of action. If damage was done to the fuselage over a period of time a crack could have developed...weakening to the point where it was blown out." The Boeing 747 had just taken off from a stopover in Hong Kong when the incident happened. As the plane dropped from 30,000ft to 10,000ft, oxygen masks fell from the ceiling. Investigators should be able to quickly pinpoint the basic reason behind the Qantas plane's emergency landing in the Philippines, aviation experts said today. But they warned that a full understanding of the terrifying incident may take much longer. Although there has been no immediate evidence that terrorism played a part in the incident, investigators will want to look at anything that points towards a deliberately-planted explosive device. The probe will also concentrate on whether there was a non-criminal explosion of some kind or whether the incident was sparked by something breaking on the plane. "It should become apparent fairly quickly if something exploded or something broke," said Kieran Daly, editor of internet news service Air Transport Intelligence. "When things like this happens there is always the thought that it might be a criminal case.Investigators will also want to see if something like a gas cylinder exploded or that something broke for whatever reason. "There may also have been some form of structural failure. Sometimes with accidents, the essential gist of the cause is very quickly known, but then it can take a much longer period of time to know exactly what happened." Debra Manchester, a passenger in first class, said there was a "huge bang" and a "massive rush of wind," with debris swirling around the cabin. Mrs Manchester, a housewife from Buckinghamshire, said there was an atmosphere of chaos as passengers struggled to put their oxygen masks on. "Newspapers and what looked like part of the ceiling flew past me. We didn't know what was happening to the plane. After a while things calmed down and there was a deadly silence. There was still debris all around our feet but we all started to feel a bit safer when we could take our masks off," she said. Brendan McClements, an Australian businessman, said that when the passengers disembarked, they could see a large hole in the side of the plane on the "driver's side" - or right hand side of the fuselage. "We could see it from where we were standing and you could see straight through into the hold of the plane," he said. Mrs Manchester added that luggage was "hanging out" of the hole where the hold had been, and that the emergency door above appeared to have come loose. The passengers praised the actions of the pilot and crew. Mr McClements, 45, said: "The crew were terrific, they were really good, they kept everyone calm and told people what to do and helped people with their masks and things. Their reactions had a very calm effect on the other passengers. "When the crew came off everyone applauded and when the pilot came off he got a round of applause too. "The pilot said to us: 'Look, we don't really know what happened. There is a hole in the side of the plane and the cabin depressurised so we had to come down.'" Mrs Manchester claimed that 20 minutes after the plane first took off from Heathrow, she heard a loud bang near the faulty panel. "You have to wonder if that explosion could have caused the second one," she said. Ding Lima, Manila airport operations officer, said: "Upon disembarkation, there were some passengers who vomited. You can see in their faces that they were really scared." Octavio Lina, the airport's deputy manager for operations, said the cabin's floor gave way, exposing some of the cargo beneath and part of the ceiling collapsed. "There is a big hole on the right side near the wing," he said, adding it was 2.5 to 3 yards (metres) in diameter. Qantas is still trying to establish how the large hole came to appear in the fuselage. An emergency room has been set up at the airline's head office at Mascot airport in Sydney, where senior airline executives are being briefed by aircraft engineers. A Qantas spokeswoman said: "Qantas can confirm that Qantas flight 30 from Hong Kong to Melbourne has been diverted to Manila . The aircraft is on the ground and is currently being inspected". Interesting the 't-word' doesn't appear anywhere in the article...even by implication. This will be another cover-up like TWA-800. They can't afford a panic in the airline industry! B _____ From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Friday, July 25, 2008 10:56 AM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Cc: Douglas J. Hagmann Subject: Re: [grendelreport] Explosion Aboard Qantas Flight - Emergency Landing Similarities to Pan Am 103. Both incidents occurred about 1 hour after departure from the gate, and in the forward cargo hold. PA-103 was at 30,000 ft, QF30 was at 29,000 ft. I think it is a miracle that QF30 did not disintigrate in mid-air. Wiki entry for Pan Am 103. <http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2/25/PA103_graphic_1.gif> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan_Am_Flight_103 http://news. <http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080725/ap_on_re_as/philippines_emergency_landi ng> yahoo.com/s/ap/20080725/ap_on_re_as/philippines_emergency_landing In this photo released by the Media Affairs Division of the ... <http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20080725/capt.cedf6ecae0b5445a82b32783c0 8b27a0.philippines_emergency_landing_xbm101.jpg?x=400&y=265&sig=CSKwk6eXV3qw .JX4qnBEdg--> Fri Jul 25, 2:43 AM ET In this photo released by the Media Affairs Division of the Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Manila, Qantas pilot Capt. John Francis Bartels looks at the right wing damaged fuselage of Qantas Airways Boeing 747-400 after it made an emergency landing Friday July 25, 2008 in Manila, Philippines. The plane en route to Australia from London made an emergency stop in Manila on Friday and airport authorities discovered a big hole in the Boeing 747-400's fuselage near the right wing. (AP Photo/Ninoy Aquino International Airport, Edwin Loobrera, HO) Qantas jet lands with gaping hole in fuselage By PAUL ALEXANDER, Associated Press Writer 23 minutes ago MANILA, Philippines - A Qantas jumbo jet carrying 345 passengers made an emergency landing Friday with a gaping hole in its fuselage after a mysterious "explosive decompression," officials said. There were no injuries, but some passengers vomited after disembarking the Boeing 747-400, said Octavio Lina, Manila International Airport Authority deputy manager for operations. The cabin's floor gave way, he said, exposing some of the cargo beneath and part of the ceiling collapsed. "There is a big hole on the right side near the wing," he said, adding it was 7 1/2 feet to 9 feet in diameter. Flight QF 30, from London to Melbourne, had just made a stopover in Hong Kong. Passengers who talked to the media at the airport described hearing an explosion, and then oxygen masks were released. "One hour into the flight there was a big bang, then the plane started going down," passenger Marina Scaffidi, 39, from Melbourne, told The Associated Press by phone from Manila airport. "There was wind swirling around the plane and some condensation." She said the hole extended from the cargo hold into the passenger cabin. "No one was very hysterical," she said. June Kane of Melbourne described how parts of the plane's interior broke apart in the depressurized cabin. "There was a terrific boom and bits of wood and debris just flew forward into first (class) and the oxygen masks dropped down," she told Australia's ABC Radio. "It was absolutely terrifying, but I have to say everyone was very calm." Video shot by a passenger showed people sitting with their oxygen masks on - just-served meals on their tray tables - as the plane descended quickly to 10,000 feet en route to an emergency landing at Manila's international airport. Cabin crew continued to work, walking down the aisles and showing no sign of panic. Applause erupted as the plane touched down safely. Geoff Dixon, the chief executive officer of Qantas, praised the pilots and the rest of the 19-person crew for how they handled the incident. "This was a highly unusual situation and our crew responded with the professionalism that Qantas is known for," he said. Qantas - Australia's largest domestic and international airline - boasts a strong safety record and has never lost a jet to an accident, although there were crashes of smaller planes, the last in 1951. However, the airline has had a few scares in recent years. In February 2008, a Qantas 717 with 84 passengers on board sustained substantial damage in a heavy landing in Darwin, Australia. In addition, union engineers - who have held several strikes this year to demand pay raises - say that safety is being compromised by low wages and overtime work. A report by the Manila International Airport Authority, quoting pilot John Francis Bartels, said the plane on Friday suffered an "explosive decompression." Australia's air-safety investigator said an initial investigation suggested "a section of the fuselage separated." The passengers were taken to several hotels while waiting for another plane to Melbourne late Friday, Wantas said. The plane was towed to a hangar in Manila. Chief Superintendent Atilano Morada, head of the police Aviation Security Group, said his officers, including explosives experts, may assist in the airline's investigation. "So far, they don't want us to touch it, so we will respect the aircraft owner. But we will make our personnel available if they need assistance in the investigation," he said. [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------------------ -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: [email protected] Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. 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