http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jul/19/obama-afghanistan-strategy-talib
an-negotiate

 


White House shifts Afghanistan strategy towards talks with Taliban


Senior Washington officials tell the Guardian of a 'change of mindset' over
the Obama administration's Afghanistan policy

*       Ewen MacAskill <http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/ewenmacaskill>  in
Washington and Simon <http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/simontisdall>
Tisdall 
*       guardian.co.uk <http://www.guardian.co.uk/> , Monday 19 July 2010
17.28 BST 

Achakzai/Reuters 

The Obama administration
<http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/obama-administration>  is revising its
Afghanistan <http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/afghanistan>  strategy to
embrace the idea of negotiating with senior members of the Taliban
<http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/taliban>  through third parties - a policy
to which it had previously been lukewarm.

Negotiation with the Taliban has long been advocated by Hamid Karzai, the
Afghanistan president, and the British and Pakistan governments, but
resisted by the US.

The Guardian has learned that while the official position of the US
government is still resistant to the idea of talks with Taliban leaders,
behind the scenes a shift is under way, and Washington is now encouraging
Karzai to take a lead in such negotiations.

"There is a change of mindset in DC," a senior official in Washington said.
"There is no military solution. That means you have to find something else.
There was something missing." The missing element is talks with the Taliban
leadership, the official added.

The US rethink comes in the aftermath of the departure in June of General
Stanley McChrystal, the top US commander in Afghanistan Barack Obama,
apparently frustrated at the way the war is going, reminded his national
security advisers that while he was on the election campaign trail in 2008,
he had advocated talking to America's enemies.

A US review of Afghanistan policy is under way, and is due for completionin
December, but officials in Washington, Kabul and Islamabad with knowledge of
internal discussions said feelers have already been put out. Negotiations
would be conducted largely in secret, through a web of contacts, involving
governments such as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, or organisations with
back-channel links to the Taliban.

"It will be messy and could take years," said a diplomatic source.

The change of heart by the US comes as Afghanistan hosts the biggest
international gathering in the capital for 40 years, with representatives
from 60 countries and dignitaries including the US secretary of state,
Hillary Clinton, and Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general.

The dominant theme of the Kabul conference is 'reintegration', which
involves reaching out to low-level insurgents to encourage them to lay down
their arms.

Earlier this year, outlining US policy, Richard Holbrooke, the state
department special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, made a distinction
between reintegration, which the US supported, and 'reconciliation',
negotiation with senior members of the Taliban. Holbrooke said: "Let me be
clear.There is no American involvement in any reconciliation process."

There is growing disenchantment in the US with the war in Afghanistan, and
senators on the foreign relations committee last week grilled Holbrooke over
what they described as a lack of clarity on an exit strategy, on the part of
the Obama administration.

The US has no agreed position on who among the leaders of the insurgency
should be wooed and who would be regarded as beyond the pale. The Taliban
leader, Mullah Omar, would be a problem given he provided Osama bin Laden
with bases in the run-up to the 9/11 attacks. The US would also find it
problematic to deal with the Pakistan-based insurgents led by Sirajuddin
Haqqani, whose group pioneered suicide attacks in Afghanistan. The third
main element in the insurgency is Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a jihadist supporter
who has hinted he is ready to break rank.

A source with knowledge of the process said: "There is no agreed US
position, but there is agreement that Karzai should lead on this. They would
expect the Pakistanis to deliver the Haqqani network in any internal
settlement."

The US has laid down basic conditions for any group seeking negotiation.
They are: end any ties with al-Qaida, end violence, and accept the
Afghanistan constitution.

A senior Pakistani diplomat said: "The US needs to be negotiating with the
Taliban; those Taliban with no links to al-Qaida. We need a power-sharing
agreement in Afghanistan, and it will have to be negotiated with all the
parties.

"The Afghan government is already talking to all the shareholders, the
Taliban, the Haqqani network, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, and Mullah Omar. The
Americans have been setting ridiculous preconditions for talks. You can't
lay down such preconditions when you are losing."

Some Afghan policy specialists are sceptical about whether negotiations will
succeed. Peter Bergen, a specialist on Afghanistan and al-Qaida, speaking at
a seminar in Washington last week organised by the United States
<http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/usa>  Institute of Peace, suggested a host
of problems with such a strategy, not least why the Taliban should enter
into negotiations "when they think they are winning".

Audrey Kurth Cronin, a member of the US National War College faculty in
Washington, and the author of How Terrorism Ends, said talks with Mullah
Omar and the Haqqani network were pointless because there would be no
negotiable terms.

She said there could be talks with Hekmatyar, but these would be conducted
through back channels, potenially by a third party. Given his support for
jihad, she said, "it would be unreasonable to expect the US and the UK to do
so.".

Asked how Obama's Afghan strategy was progressing, a senior former US
government official familiar with the latest Pentagon thinking said: "In a
word, poorly. We seriously need to be developing a revised plan of action
that will allow us a chance to achieve sufficient security in a more
sustainable manner."

Officials have mentioned possible roles in negotiation for the UN and
figures such as the veteran UN negotiator, the Algerian Lahkdar Brahimi, who
heads, along with the retired US ambassador Thomas Pickering, a New
York-based international panel which is looking at such a reconciliation.

Another name mentioned is Michael Semple, an Irishman based in Boston at
Harvard's Kennedy School who has extensive ties with the Taliban.

 



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