http://www.geostrategy-direct.com/geostrategy-direct/secure/2010/10_06/mi.as
p

 

Russia told sanctions could cost it $13 billion in Iran business 

MOSCOW - Russia has been warned that it could lose a lucrative market in
Iran. 

A leading Russian analyst said Moscow could lose up to $13 billion in
military and other sales to Iran amid the United Nations sanctions. The
analyst said the Security Council sanctions threaten current contracts,
including the reported $1 billion deal for the S-300 air defense system to
Teheran. 

"This amount includes deliveries under signed contracts and potential
revenues from prospective projects," Igor Korotchenko, director of the
Institute on International Arms Trade, said. 

Korotchenko, also editor of National Defense Magazine, said the sanctions,
passed in June 2010, could torpedo Iran's plans to purchase a range of
military platforms, weapons and other equipment from Russia. He said the
Iranian military modernization program, estimated at $25 billion, was geared
toward the procurement of Russian systems. 

"The Russian defense industry could have received at least half of this
amount in 2010-2025," Korotchenko said. 

The analyst said Russia could be blocked from selling the S-300 and other
air defense systems, which would amount to $2.2 billion. He said the
cancellation of the S-300 contract called for complete compensation plus a
10 percent penalty. 

Korotchenko said Moscow would also lose $3.2 billion in naval sales, $3.7
billion in combat aircraft, $1.1 billion in combat helicopters and $2.5
billion in ground systems and platforms for Iran's military. He said Russia
would also lose nearly $500 million in Iranian space projects as well as
follow-on orders for existing military contracts. 

The analyst said Iran would turn to other suppliers to replace Russia.
Korotchenko said a key alternative was China, which has already been
supplying technology and components for Iran's ballistic missile and nuclear
programs. 

 



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