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Feb. 10, 2011 Assessing America's Foes By Paul Johnson Which is the bigger threat to the U.S. and its vital interests - Islamic terrorism or China's economic and military expansion? History teaches that extremist phases in Islam's development come and go and that the present surge of violence will pass. We need to combine vigilance with patience. To be vigilant is necessary, anyway. It's not a bad thing that the threat of suicide bombers has forced us to update and improve our security measures to detect and speedily derail violent conspiracies; the end of the Cold War had made us complacent. The most worrisome danger today is the risk of a terrorist gang obtaining a nuclear weapon and the means to deploy it against a Western or Western- allied target. With Pakistan in its fragile state, terrorist access to its nuclear stockpile must be regarded as a distinct possibility. There is also the chance that North Korea might sell one of its A-bombs to terrorists or that Iran might present such a weapon - when and if it succeeds in making one - to those it regards as allies in the war against "the great Satan." But these risks are well-known and provided for in America's contingency planning. Indeed, the possibility of a nuclear weapon's landing in rogue hands has forced the West to sharpen and pinpoint its intelligence efforts. And in this, of course, the U.S. has the inestimable advantage of enjoying the closest possible cooperation with Israeli intelligence services. And since Israel's very existence depends on forestalling such a threat, we can be sure its information on this issue is of the highest quality. In sum, then, the threat from Islamic extremism is huge and real but not a cause for panic. China is in quite another category - and may not be a threat at all. Some argue, plausibly, that as China's economy continues to expand and more wealth and higher living standards are enjoyed by its rapidly expanding middle class, any aggressive intentions China has toward the West will gradually disappear, and it will become a trustworthy member of the international community. Today there's no sign of such a rosy vision coming to pass. China's military budget continues to increase in absolute terms. The effort China is putting into military high tech is daunting, and there's no indication that China is abandoning any of its territorial claims in the vast East Asian theater. There are two vital tests of China's intentions. Will it abandon its efforts to secure control over Taiwan by threat or the use of force? Will it cooperate with other powers in the region, including the U.S., to restrain North Korea? Until we get affirmative answers to these questions we cannot count on China's goodwill toward the world or its willingness to work for peace. We have to treat China with reserve - not habitual hostility. But above all the U.S. must keep ahead of China in the development of military technology, especially on the seas and in the air. Looking ahead to the midcentury we can foresee certain welcome adjustments. By 2050 China's population, while expected to be around 1.4 billion, will probably be dropping and have an aging profile. The U.S. population will be more than 400 million, be steadily rising and have a more youthful profile. It's possible, though unlikely, that by then China's GNP will be larger than America's, but in every other respect the U.S. economy will be well ahead, especially in high tech. China would be more likely to become an economic - as opposed to a military - threat to the U.S. if it embraced democracy and freedom. Therein lies the paradox, for a truly free and democratic China - and thus an increasingly prosperous and friendly one - must be a welcome phenomenon. Another factor to consider is India. China has chosen to expand its economy via traditional smokestack industries and cheap, mass-produced exports. In contrast, India is moving more rapidly into high tech. For the time being this means a less showy performance than China's. But in the long run this offers India a much more promising future, which by 2050 may be apparent. What is clear today is that India, as a working democracy, a respecter of the rule of law and a potentially hightech superpower, will be an immensely valuable U.S. ally. Therefore, a cardinal object of American policy must be to cultivate India's friendship and cooperation in every sphere. And at the same time, if the U.S. remains a firm friend and ally of Japan, I doubt there will be much to fear in China's creating a huge economy. On the contrary, that might well prove, in the end, to be a blessing for mankind. 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