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Is Your Wallet Screaming “Inflation”?


 
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 By James Sharp  Thursday, March 3, 2011 

imageI would like to start off by stressing the fact that I am NOT an 
economist. I am a “working Joe” that gets up and goes to work every day – as I 
have for thirty-five years – in order to pay my bills and feed my family. I do 
not profess to be an expert. However, I do know what my wallet is telling me – 
and it isn’t telling me anything good.

I need not mention what we are seeing at the gas pump these days. The price of 
a gallon of gasoline has skyrocketed (in my home state of Florida) from just 
over $1.50 per gallon at the end of the Bush administration to close to $3.50 
for that same gallon today. 

        

Anybody that believes that inflation is really 1.63 percent (as told to us by 
the federal government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics in its Consumer Price Index 
summary) is not living in the real world. If you shop for groceries, gasoline, 
insurance, or basically, ANYTHING (computers and other electronic goods 
notwithstanding) on a regular basis, you have seen a steady rise in prices for 
a number of years. 


There is a web site that offers an “inflation calculator”. This is very 
intriguing and allows one to determine the rate of inflation between any two 
dates from 1914 to the present. You can then enter that inflation rate and a 
dollar amount (such as the cost of goods or services) and determine what the 
inflated cost is. According to the information on this site, the inflation rate 
from January 2000 to today is 30.46 percent. This means that something that 
cost one dollar in 2000 costs $1.30 today. 

I like to think of prices in terms of my “personal price index”. I do most of 
the grocery shopping in my family and I am keenly aware of the prices that I 
pay for the goods that I purchase regularly. Take, for instance, a popular 
national brand of orange juice that I was able to buy on sale (back in 2000) in 
half gallon cartons for three for $5.00. That same container of orange juice 
today will cost you $2.99 when you can find it on sale. But wait – the vendor 
recently reduced the package size from a half-gallon to 59 fluid ounces. This 
increase in price PLUS the decrease in package size yields a net increase in 
the per-ounce price from 2.61 cents to 5.07 cents, or 94 percent. And this has 
taken place since 2000.

Granted, many factors can enter into the price of orange juice including 
freezes in Florida. But this is a steady long-term increase – not a seasonal 
trend. And how many other products can you name which have seen similar 
increases in price along with a decrease in package size? Ice cream and coffee 
are two that immediately come to mind. Or have you purchased a bag of sugar 
lately? A four pound bag that used to be five? If not, you are in for a shock.


My 82-year-old mother told me just the other day that the yogurt that she has 
been purchasing for quite some time for $2.49 just increased in price to $2.79. 
This sounds like a twelve percent increase to me - in one fell swoop; not over 
an extended period of time. 

We know that the Federal Reserve has been, for the past several months (and 
will continue doing through the third quarter of this year), increasing the 
money supply by a process euphemistically known as “quantitative easing”. The 
irony here is that they are not making it easier on the working people. 
Increasing the supply of money is the only real cause of inflation and this is 
precisely what the Fed is doing. The price of oil (as with the price of 
everything) is controlled by the laws of supply and demand. But with the Fed 
seemingly trying to destroy the dollar, investors are turning to commodities 
such as gold, silver, sugar, and OIL. Not only has oil seen a large run-up in 
price lately, but silver (from which, once upon a time, our coins were minted) 
has increased over twenty percent in the past month alone.

I believe that we are seeing people eager to spend their dollars while there is 
still at least some value left to them, albeit not much. Hence the demand, and 
increasing prices, for the aforementioned commodities. It is a vicious cycle. 
The more the Fed devalues the dollar through forced inflation, the more 
investors try to unload their dollars by purchasing tangible assets with real 
value.

We have all heard stories about Germany in the 1920’s and the inflation that 
that country experienced. Stories abound of people using wheelbarrows full of 
money to purchase loaves of bread. Such stories may seem absurd to a majority 
of Americans today. But think about it in the context of such inflation taking 
place over a period of many years. This is precisely what we have seen in this 
country. The dollar has lost over 95 percent of its value since 1900. This 
means that, what once sold for less than five cents now costs a dollar – two 
50-cent rolls of pennies – or more. A forty cent loaf of bread of a few decades 
ago now costs upwards of three dollars. Hence it is not difficult to spend a 
wheelbarrow full of pennies on a single trip to the grocery store.


In my opinion, if it looks like a duck, waddles like a duck, and quacks like a 
duck – it’s a duck. Well, if it looks like inflation and feels like inflation, 
it IS inflation, regardless of what the government tries to tell us.


Fed chairman Ben Bernanke is whispering, “Don’t worry.” 

But my wallet is screaming, “Inflation!” 

 



[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]



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