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FLASHPOINT - Part III
ISRAEL: ODD MAN OUT AND TARGETED FOR WAR
By Ilana Freedman
March 31, 2011
Background Israel sits in a tiny corner of the vast Arab and Muslim world.
Despite her reputation for ferocity in war and the massive PR campaigns
showing her as a cruel aggressor, Israel is still the little David standing
before the mammoth Goliath of Muslim power.
For starters, let's put things into perspective. It is difficult to
understand how this tiny country can be perceived as a threat to the vast
sea of Muslim states surrounding her.
Israel is a small country, predominantly Jewish, surrounded by largely
hostile Muslim countries whose public pronouncements, laws, and treaties
have made it clear that the destruction of Israel is at the core of their
agenda. Many people still do not understand Israel's relationship to the
world around it, so to put it into greater relief, here are some of the bare
bones statistics that may help put Israel in context:
Israel
22 Muslim Countries in the
Middle East and North Africa
Population
7,100,000
(or 7.1 million people)
270,000,000
(or 270 million people)
Land Area
8,367 square miles
5,000,000 square miles
I
Israel is 263 miles long (North to South) and between 9 and 71 miles wide
(East to West). In fact, Israel is the 100th smallest country in the world.
It is so small, that Israel could fit into Florida 8 times, and into Saudi
Arabia 90 times.
And here is what that land area actually looks like. The map shows below
Israel in its relationship to the Muslim countries in the Middle East, North
Africa, and Asia (the numbers for Asian countries are not included in the
chart above):
The Story It has been 63 years since the State of Israel was established.
Since then, Israel has been in a continual state of war with Arab and Muslim
countries throughout the region. The only exceptions to this were two
countries with whom Israel signed peace treaties - Egypt in 1979 and Jordan
in 1994.
Born in the conflict of the War of Independence in 1948, Israel has survived
three more wars on her own soil as well as two intafadas (Arab uprisings),
another two wars in Lebanon, and two years of incessant shelling from Gaza
that ended in another war there.
Israel has also been the target of terrorist attacks since the early days of
statehood. Since 1948, Israel has suffered thousands of terrorist attacks
and lost over 2,400 citizens to acts of terror within Israeli borders.
Israel's history is a story of a country that in its 63 years of existence
has rarely seen times of quiet and never a time of true peace.
One further note of background: In the effort to establish peace, the West
has adopted the concept of the "Israeli-Palestinian Conflict". But the term
"Palestinian" is misleading. Before Israel achieved statehood, the entire
country was called Palestine, and everyone living in it was a "Palestinian".
All passports, whether for Arabs or Jews, Muslims or Christians identified
the individual as a citizen of Palestine. They were all "Palestinian".
When Yassir Arafat adopted the name "Palestine" to mean the homeland for
Arabs, whom he called "Palestinians", he created a people who, he claimed,
had represented approximately 60% of the population in the 1940s, prior to
the creation of the State of Israel. His political life was built upon the
idea that those who had left the new state in 1948 when war broke out
deserve the right to return to their homeland, "Palestine", with all their
succeeding generations. He defined Palestine as the entire State of Israel.
A Complex Situation The Israeli / Palestinian conflict is therefore
extremely complex and generates an extraordinary range of political,
logistic, strategic, and personal reactions. It is fraught with emotion and
deeply held convictions. The profound divisions which exist not only between
Israelis and Palestinians, but also within each society characterize one of
the fundamental reasons why peace has been so elusive in the region. Given
the sustained conditions of overt animosity between Arab and Muslim
countries on the one side and Israelis on the other, peace has not only been
elusive, it has been impossible to achieve.
Israel's reputation for ferocity on the battlefield has come from its need
to survive under incredibly difficult circumstances. Every war for Israel is
existential. Israel's remarkable story, however, is that despite being
under virtual siege for most of its 63 years, its economy is vibrant and it
has been the seedbed for technological innovation that has changed the
world.
In Israel's industry and her national technology incubator program that has
become a world standard for excellence, some of the most advanced inventions
have altered the way we do things in the fields of technology, medicine,
physics, agriculture, aerospace, and military science. For example:
- The cell phone, most of the Windows NT operating system, the Pentium
MMX Chip technology, voice-mail technology, the
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USB_flash_drive> USB flash drive, and instant
messaging were all invented or developed in Israel.
- Advances in medical technology have driven new ideas into life-saving
devices and procedures, including innovative imaging and surgical methods
for a host of diseases and conditions, including cancer and rehabilitation,
to mention only two.
- The development of new concepts in military technology has helped to
improve America's own military capabilities. And Israel's outstanding
performance in the fields of military and security intelligence has provided
the US with critical, strategic information over the years.
In fact, it is Israel's strong military and security posture that has
enabled the tiny country to grow and thrive despite her security issues. For
the last four years, internal security has been extremely effective in
keeping terrorism within its borders at bay. These years of quiet have
helped Israel's economy to grow and to continue to make significant
contributions to the world.
In short, Israel is a paradox and a thorn in the side of Muslim countries
like Syria, Iran, and Pakistan, and terrorist organizations, like Hamas and
Hezbollah. All have publicly condemned Israel's existence and called for her
total destruction.
But the Rolling Revolutions in the Middle East have brought change to the
region and have greatly increased the existential threat to Israel. What
began as a peaceful, pro-democracy movement in Egypt, organized by secular
students and young professionals, was quickly co-opted by the Muslim
Brotherhood, whose vision of an Islamist Egypt under Shari'a law portends a
dangerous future for the region. They have openly stated that one of their
first orders of business will be a review of the Peace Treaty with Israel.
They have already re-opened the border with Gaza, through which weapons of
war are again flowing to Hamas. And a new period of unrest is beginning to
unfold. Over the last few weeks, rockets are again flying into populated
areas of Israel from Gaza, reaching further into Israel than ever before.
Israel's military response has been limited and the rockets continue to fall
on Israeli cities. Iran is also supplying Hamas with weapons. Recently a
German cargo ship, the Victoria, was intercepted in the Mediterranean by the
Israeli Navy, and found to be carrying 50 tons of heavy weapons bound for
Gaza.
The situation in the north is even more serious. Israeli intelligence has
released maps <http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=214475> of some
1,000 underground bunkers and hidden weapons storage facilities and
monitoring sites built by Hezbollah in south Lebanon. Our sources report
that Iran has already supplied Hezbollah with 80,000-100,000 rockets and
missiles for which these bunkers have been built.
A network of deep tunnels has also been built deep beneath the country to
enable Hezbollah to transport the missiles and heavy equipment without being
detected by the watchful eyes of drones and satellites. Eyewitnesses also
report seeing large transports of flatbed trucks driving overland and
carrying large missiles under flapping tarps. Many of the large, heavily
treed valleys of southern Lebanon have now been declared closed military
zones by Hezbollah, forbidden to locals, where they also hide large weapons
and equipment under the dense tree canopies.
Iran has supplied thousands of IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps)
personnel to support Hezbollah, and North Korean tunnel construction
equipment to assist in the massive tunnel building project that has been
taking place over the last five years. Some of these tunnels according to
eye witnesses on the ground, are said to extend under Israeli territory, and
are fitted with rails and electrical power for transporting heavy military
equipment deep into the Israeli heartland. Others, they report, are small
bore tunnels, meant to be a means to send heavily armed child soldiers of
Hezbollah, ages 7 - 14, trained to go into Israel and kill Israelis.
Another eye-witness account reported the sudden appearance of an old Russian
"Typhoon" class submarine, flying an Iranian flag, in a small fishing harbor
near Beirut. According to the source, several tons of gas cylinders were
off-loaded by Hezbollah soldiers in hazmat suits.
All the stories coming out of Lebanon are relayed by men who tell them at
great risk to their own lives. Hezbollah has dedicated teams intercepting
telephone and computer transmissions, and mercilessly track down those who
plot against them. But the reports that get out suggest the building of a
war effort that is unequalled in local history.
In short, the situation throughout the region is becoming increasingly
unstable and the rolling revolutions are adding immeasurably to the tension
that Israel is now experiencing. Sitting like an island of democratic
process in a sea of countries run either by tyrants or anti-government
rebels, Israel may now be facing the most serious war in her short history.
Analysis: Connecting the Dots In the name of "democracy revolutions", the
Middle East is rapidly succumbing to chaos, and battles between long
reigning rulers on one side and the people on the other. The result may be
anything but democratic.
The resulting rise and legitimization of anti-Semitism and anti-Israel
sentiment not only in the Middle East but throughout Europe and Asia is
alarming. A few examples:
- During Egypt's "peaceful" demonstrations, an American journalist was
sexually assaulted by a mob of Egyptian men in a brutal twenty-minute attack
in the iconic Tahrir Square, while the crowd shouted, "Jew! Jew!" (the
reporter is not Jewish).
- In Tunisia, after the government of President Bin Ali had already
been brought down, the demonstrations continued, looking for another target.
At least one synagogue was attacked and burned, and the crowds in Tunis
shouted, "Death to the Jews! Death to Israel".
- Now that Egypt has become 'democratic', it has lifted the
blockade of Gaza imposed by Hosni Mubarak, and weapons are once again
flowing into Gaza through Egypt to Hamas.
- Hamas has once again begun a barrage of rocket attacks on
southern Israeli. On the first day of their new offensive, they fired 50
mortars and rockets into populated areas. This marked the beginning of a
new in terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians
- In the town of Itamar in the West Bank, a young couple and three
of their six children were brutally murdered, and the head of their newborn
baby girl was cut off in a gruesome Sabbath massacre.
- In Jerusalem, a bomb placed near a bus stop killed a British
tourist and injured 50 more
Israel is once again facing a time of increasing insecurity internally and
animosity from its Arab and Muslim neighbors.
If Israel has a major flaw in its strategic security plans, it lies in its
dependence on American friendship and support, neither of which she is
likely to get in the event of an all-out war. And all-out war is what seems
to be inevitable. In fact, in my view, it has already started, with the
strengthening of Islamist control of the Muslim countries surrounding Israel
and the return of terrorist attacks at home.
The vice around Israel is tightening, from Lebanon and Syria in the north,
Gaza in the South, and now Iran from the Mediterranean Sea in the west. It
is not clear what will trigger the next war, but I believe it is likely that
we will see another regional war before the end of the summer, with Israel
at its epicenter.
WILL THE UN BE CONVINCED TO APPLY RESOLUTION 1973 TO ISRAEL?
Hamas has already asked the UN Security Council to intervene on behalf of
the people in Gaza, using the Libyan precedent as a handy excuse for
intervention. They failed to mention in their appeal that Israel's recent
limited attacks on specific targets in Gaza (before which Israel provided
warning to civilians to leave the targeted areas) were in direct response to
the unprovoked rocket attacks from Gaza on Israeli towns and cities.
Uninvited foreign intervention in Israel is itself unprecedented. Israel has
been a destination for UN personnel to come on R&R, not to intervene in its
internal affairs. But where Israel is concerned, the laws of reason and
logic, as well as the lessons of history, seem to break down.
Conclusion The next war will be unlike any other war we have seen. Israel,
from all accounts, is well prepared and capable of defending herself against
extreme odds. But this war will not be pretty and the consequences of
America's incompetent foreign policy and blatant interference throughout the
region will bring catastrophe to the entire Middle East and beyond.
Other breaking stories:
Gaddafi's Forces are Still Strong After Days of Massive Air Strikes
But America's Secret Intervention Changes the Picture
Ten days of heavy bombardment have not curbed Gaddafi's appetite or ability
to inflict revenge against the Libyans who turned against him. Essentially,
nothing has changed. Gaddafi is still in power, rebel groups have once again
pushed the rebels back almost to Banghazi, where they started, and the war
goes on.
But who are the rebels? Well, as it turns out, they are not just the
beleaguered people of eastern Libya, but are also fighters from campaigns in
Iraq and Afghanistan (where they targeted the "foreign invaders", i.e. US
troops, and aligned with the Taliban and al Qaeda). (See this morning's
Special Edition). And reports are rife that the rebel ranks have been
infiltrated by al Qaeda, Hezbollah, and adrenalin junkies who just enjoy the
rush of firing automatic weapons in the air and are loyal to no one. Tribal
leaders who can't or won't work together once the shooting stops are also a
critical part of this unholy mix.
Moreover, relative to the article above, Debka reports that senior Libyan
rebels sold an estimated 2,000 artillery shells carrying mustard gas and
1,200 nerve gas shells to Hezbollah and Hamas for several million dollars in
cash. The weapons were taken from Gaddafi's huge stocks of WMD that the
rebels captured in military facilities in Benghazi. The deal was reportedly
negotiated by Iran. The shipments are thought to be currently en route
through the Sudan, bound for Lebanon and Gaza.
The US administration is 'still considering' whether to arm the rebels.
However, the administration announced today that CIA agents have been
deployed to "check out" the rebels - who they are and what they need. When
asked whether this complied with the terms of UN Security Council Resolution
1973, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton responded, "It is our
interpretation that 1973 amended or overrode the absolute prohibition of
arms to anyone in Libya so that there could be legitimate transfer of arms
if a country were to choose to do that. As I said, we have not made that
decision at this time." Our information is that the decision has, in fact,
been made and that it is now in the hands of the CIA, already operating in
eastern Libya.
Latest news today is that several senior ministers, including the Foreign
Minister, and 32 diplomatic cars have crossed the border into Tunisia.
Syria: President Makes No Promises and the People are Primed for Unrest
President Bashar al-Assad gave an uninspired speech to Syria's parliament
today. Looking relaxed and happy, he talked in general about Syrian unity
and the need for reforms. But he did not offer any reforms, not even the
expected reforms that included lifting the state of emergency laws that have
been in effect since 1963, and have stifled free speech and assembly, among
other things.
The people of Syria, shocked by his apparent inability to grasp the
situation in his own country, took to the streets again, and even mobbed his
car as he was driven through Damascus.
His weakness as a leader and his personal inability to grasp reality as his
country falls into even greater upheaval does not bode well for the country.
He has set up a committee to study the possibility of ending emergency law.
His next steps will be decisive, one way or another. Although he has said
that his security forces are under orders not to fire on the demonstrators,
this could change at any time. Under his weak demeanor, Bashar holds the
power to uses deadly force if he chooses to do so.
However, Iran's role is also likely to be pivotal. It holds great leverage
over Assad and may use it if the situation seems warranted. Assad's
continued presence in office will be important to Iran's strategic interest
in both Syria and Lebanon. As in the other revolutions in other countries,
the situation is volatile and changing by the hour. Stay tuned.
AL QAEDA HAS JUST PUBLISHED ITS FIFTH ISSUE OF 'INSPIRE' MAGAZINE, its
slick, internet-base English-language publication, which is designed to
recruit English-speaking jihadis to its anti-infidel mission. Watch for more
on this development.
BREAKING NEWS: Turkey informed the Security Council today that it recently
seized a large shipment of Kalashnikov rifles and hundreds of mortar shells
from a Syria-bound Iranian cargo plane. The arms were listed as 'auto spare
parts.'
= = = = = = = =
ILANA FREEDMAN is an intelligence analyst with over twenty years of
experience in the field. Trained in Israel, Ilana has forecast some of the
major events in the last decade, including the current crisis in the Middle
East. She forecast the fall of Mubarak, the spread of the uprisings
throughout the region, she identified the hand of the Muslim Brotherhood in
the organizations of the demonstrations in Egypt, and she was among the
first to recognize the importance of Qaradawi's presence in Tahrir Square a
week after Mubarak's fall.
Ms Freedman has been a featured speaker at conferences and other events
throughout the US and around the world. She is a frequent guest on radio and
television where she provides analysis on the implications of current
crises, and on the threat of global and domestic terrorism to the US and the
world.
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