Libyan Rebels Sinking Posted By Ryan Mauro On April 5, 2011
The see-saw battle in Libya rages on, with the rebels asking for a truce and in a full-scale retreat from cities they recently re-captured. The weaknesses of the rebel forces mean that they will need significant, long-term outside assistance to survive unless the coalition decides to remove Qaddafi from power. The West now faces a catch-22: It can provide the rebels with what they need, knowing there are Islamist elements among them or the rebels will go to those willing to help them, which could include Al-Qaeda, Hezbollah and other Islamists. The rebel forces have just incurred a series of losses as they pushed too far in their advances following the U.N.-authorized intervention. This stretched their forces and allowed Qaddafi's military to launch successful counter-attacks. The rebels have complained about a sudden lack of airstrikes, which Admiral Mike Mullen says is due to poor weather. However, the announcement <http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/04/01/end-air-combat-role-libya-qaddaf i-makes-gains/> that the U.S. combat role is ending and strikes will no longer be carried out by American forces except at NATO's specific request will cast doubts among the rebels over whether the air cover they need will return. One Libyan woman close to the National Transitional Council in Benghazi said <http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/mar/30/libyan-rebels-blame-retreat -on-lack-of-allied-air-/?page=2> that "They see non-commitment, commitment, non-commitment" and as a result, "their morale is very low." Admiral Mullen said <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-12924807> that 20 to 25 percent of Qaddafi's forces have been destroyed but he still has about ten times the firepower of the rebels, who have only around 1,000 military-trained fighters. Mullen specifically said that Qaddafi's military is "[not] about to break." The rebels say they need heavy weaponry and a broadening of the targets for air strikes. They are having particular difficulty in handling snipers, who one said <http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/mar/24/gadhafi-aides-urge-leader-t o-split-nation-with-reb/?page=3> "have been wreaking havoc." The biggest issues are the lack of a command structure and trained forces among the rebels. One of the fighters was an assistant to a ship captain before the uprising began and never even held a weapon before the war began. He said <http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/rebels-ragtag-army-has-heart-but-lacks- organization/2011/03/26/AF7wjRiB_story.html> the little knowledge he had about using an AK-47 came "from what I saw in the movies. And also from PlayStation." The rebels cannot adequately train them because they are needed for the battlefield immediately. They also have almost no satellite communications equipment and therefore have to send instructions, intelligence and weapons through couriers. This leads to a lack <http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2011/4/3/nation/8402079&sec=nati on> of coordination and significantly delayed responses to developments. The opposition says the rebels still have plenty of motivation and are quickly improving their performance, but it will take considerable time to train fighters who can lead the forces. The opposition denies wanting to institute Sharia law and U.S. intelligence believes <http://articles.latimes.com/2011/mar/23/world/la-fg-libya-rebels-intel-2011 0324> that Al-Qaeda are only a small portion of the opposition, but this need for experienced commanders and fighters has led to an embrace of Islamists. A representative of Derna on the Transitional Council states <http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703712504576237042432212406.h tml> "Many of us were concerned about these people's backgrounds," specifically mentioning Abdel-Hakim al-Hasidi, a rebel commander tied to the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group who has promised to serve only under the authority of the local governing councils. _____ _____ Al-Hasidi commands 300 fighters from Derna and says about 25 of them fought Coalition forces in Iraq. He was quoted <http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/840704 7/Libyan-rebel-commander-admits-his-fighters-have-al-Qaeda-links.html> in the British media as saying "members of Al-Qaeda are good Muslims and are fighting against the invader" and he was arrested in Pakistan after crossing over from Afghanistan in 2002. Today, he is taking a less extremist tone, saying "Our view is starting to change of the U.S. If we hated the Americans 100%, today it is less than 50%. They have started to redeem themselves for their past mistakes by helping us to preserve the blood of our children." On the future of Libya, he says "No Islamist revolution has ever succeeded. Only when the whole population was included did we succeed and that means a more inclusive ideology." His field commander is another member of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group named Salah al-Barrani and one of his trainers, Sufyan Ben Qumu, worked for a company owned by Osama Bin Laden in Sudan and worked for a charity in Afghanistan. He was captured by the U.S. in Afghanistan and held at Guantanamo Bay for six years before being transferred to Libya in 2007 and released the following year. There are also reports <http://www.rttnews.com/Content/GeneralNews.aspx?Id=1586330&SM=1> of a Hezbollah presence in Libya, which would make sense given the Iranian regime's open support for overthrowing Qaddafi. President Obama has given <http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/31/world/africa/31intel.html> orders to the CIA to covertly assist the rebels and a rebel source has told <http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/04/201142172443133798.html> Al-Jazeera that he was trained at a secret site in Libya used by the U.S. and Egypt. He talked of shipments of Katyusha rockets arriving through Egypt. These are the same kinds of missiles used by Hamas, so hopefully the source is correct about their origin. The Gulf country of Qatar has also struck a deal <http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jDqBU1S3sD-7ac4vzaED2k3wY qGw?docId=4d1680be5c1b424eaf301576b14387d8> with the rebels to provide them with supplies and money for weapons in exchange for oil. The conflict in Libya is at a crossroads now. Rebel sources have claimed <http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/mar/24/gadhafi-aides-urge-leader-t o-split-nation-with-reb/> that aides to Qaddafi are suggesting that he destroy the rebels in the west, specifically Misrata and then agree to a ceasefire that allows the rebels to govern the eastern part of the country. However, such an outcome would leave the dictator in power, allow him to massacre his opponents in the territory he governs and commit the West to a long-term military engagement to enforce the ceasefire. The rebels will still need outside support for training and arms and if the West does not provide it, they will go wherever they need to out of necessity. The U.S. now faces a predicament. Arming and supporting the rebels relieves them of the need to go to Islamists for help and would give the U.S. influence over the Libyan opposition, but it could also result in American arms and money going to people like Abdel-Hakim al-Hasidi. On the other hand, American non-involvement could leave Qaddafi in power and result in Islamist inroads among the rebels. The U.S. must now choose between two risky options, both of which pose serious dangers. _____ Article printed from FrontPage Magazine: http://frontpagemag.com URL to article: http://frontpagemag.com/2011/04/05/libyan-rebels-sinking/ [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------------------ -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? 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