May 23 2011

In a major speech delivered at the State Department on May 19 President
Obama outlined his administration
<http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/05/19/remarks-president-bar
ack-obama-prepared-delivery-moment-opportunity> ,s policy in the Middle East
and North Africa, making some clean breaks with what had been key elements
of US policy in the region for decades.

Regarding the Arab Israeli conflict, it is important to note that the
President did maintain some aspects of his predecessors, policies, saying,
for example:

For the Palestinians, efforts to delegitimize Israel will end in failure.
Symbolic actions to isolate Israel at the United Nations in September won,t
create an independent state. Palestinian leaders will not achieve peace or
prosperity if Hamas insists on a path of terror and rejection. And
Palestinians will never realize their independence by denying the right of
Israel to exist.

As for Israel, our friendship is rooted deeply in a shared history and
shared values. Our commitment to Israel,s security is unshakeable. And we
will stand against attempts to single it out for criticism in international
forums...

Ultimately, it is up to Israelis and Palestinians to take action. No peace
can be imposed upon them, nor can endless delay make the problem go away.
But what America and the international community can do is state frankly
what everyone knows: a lasting peace will involve two states for two
peoples. Israel as a Jewish state and the homeland for the Jewish people,
and the state of Palestine as the homeland for the Palestinian people; each
state enjoying self-determination, mutual recognition, and peace.

But President Obama also profoundly changed key elements of US policy on the
Arab-Israeli question. Here are excerpts from those portions of the speech:

1. President Obama: So while the core issues of the conflict must be
negotiated, the basis of those negotiations is clear: a viable Palestine,
and a secure Israel. The United States believes that negotiations should
result in two states, with permanent Palestinian borders with Israel,
Jordan, and Egypt, and permanent Israeli borders with Palestine. The borders
of Israel and Palestine should be based on the 1967 lines with mutually
agreed swaps, so that secure and recognized borders are established for both
states. The Palestinian people must have the right to govern themselves, and
reach their potential, in a sovereign and contiguous state.

Prior policy has been not to publicly spell out what the territorial outcome
should be, since this would tend to harden positions and make compromise
between the parties more difficult. The Bush Letter
<http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Peace+Process/Reference+Documents/Exchange+of+let
ters+Sharon-Bush+14-Apr-2004.htm>  (April 14, 2004), for example, stated:

As part of a final peace settlement, Israel must have secure and recognized
borders, which should emerge from negotiations between the parties in
accordance with UNSC Resolutions 242 and 338. In light of new realities on
the ground, including already existing major Israeli populations centers, it
is unrealistic to expect that the outcome of final status negotiations will
be a full and complete return to the armistice lines of 1949, and all
previous efforts to negotiate a two-state solution have reached the same
conclusion. It is realistic to expect that any final status agreement will
only be achieved on the basis of mutually agreed changes that reflect these
realities.

In his letter President Bush didn't put forth any baseline, and was careful
to refer only in negative terms to the 1949 Armistice lines, saying that
these would not be the final outcome of negotiations.

It is also important to note that the Bush Letter was endorsed
overwhelmingly by the House and the Senate in a non-binding concurrent
resolution, H. Con. Res. 460
<http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-108hconres460rfs/pdf/BILLS-108hconres460
rfs.pdf> . (Among those voting in favor was then Senator Hillary Clinton.)

In departing from the terms of the Bush Letter, President Obama may call
into question the value of such Presidential assurances, including his own,
thereby making these and future negotiations more difficult.

Similarly, at the Camp David negotiations in 2000, when President Clinton
tried to synthesize the positions of the parties and offer what he felt were
viable compromises, he dictated the "Clinton Parameters" to the parties in
private without giving them copies, and without a map of the proposed land
swaps. Here in aFoxNews interview
<http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,50830,00.html>  is Dennis Ross's
detailed description of how and why this was done:

BARNES: I have two other questions. One, the Palestinians point out that
this was never put on paper, this offer. Why not?

ROSS: We presented this to them so that they could record it. When the
president presented it, he went over it at dictation speed. He then left the
cabinet room. I stayed behind. I sat with them to be sure, and checked to be
sure that every single word.

The reason we did it this way was to be sure they had it and they could
record it. But we told the Palestinians and Israelis, if you cannot accept
these ideas, this is the culmination of the effort, we withdraw them. We did
not want to formalize it. We wanted them to understand we meant what we
said. You don't accept it, it's not for negotiation, this is the end of it,
we withdraw it. So that's why they have it themselves recorded. And to this
day, the Palestinians have not presented to their own people what was
available.

BARNES: In other words, Arafat might use it as a basis for further
negotiations so he'd get more?

ROSS: Well, exactly.

HUME: Which is what, in fact, he tried to do, according to your account.

ROSS: We treated it as not only a culmination. We wanted to be sure it
couldn't be a floor for negotiations.

Thus, in presenting his proposal and preferred outcome in public, President
Obama has markedly departed from President Clinton's strategy, which was
intended to avoid providing the baseline for future negotiations should his
peace efforts fail.

2. President Obama: Palestinians should know the territorial outlines of
their state; Israelis should know that their basic security concerns will be
met.

Previous Presidents have refrained from stating publicly the territorial
outlines of a Palestinian state in this way, because it removes from Israel
the basic bargaining chips needed in the negotiations. What can Israel now
trade to the Palestinians in return for necessary Palestinian compromises?

3. President Obama: But precisely because of our friendship, it is important
that we tell the truth: the status quo is unsustainable, and Israel too must
act boldly to advance a lasting peace.

Unlike his predecessors, here President Obama seems to be placing
requirements on Israel alone to make compromises for peace ^ there is not a
similar call in the speech for the Palestinians to "act boldly" to achieve
peace with Israel.

 

Perhaps it is also necessary to repeat all the compromises for peace and
risks for peace that Israel has already taken, such as withdrawing from the
Sinai, an area almost three times larger than pre-1967 Israel, and giving up
the oil fields it had developed there, which promised to make Israel self
sufficient in oil. What other country has given up so much land, and oil,
all for the promise of peace? A peace which is now in question, thanks to
the revolution in Egypt.

 

And taking Yasir Arafat's word that he had renounced terrorism, and allowing
him back with more than 10,000 of his "militia" (armed terrorists), in order
to try to reach peace with the Palestinians, was also a huge risk, which has
cost the lives of almost 1500 Israelis in terrorist attacks. Again, what
other country would invite its worst enemy to live next door, just on the
promise that he would no longer be an enemy. A promise which turned out to
be a lie.

 

Unfortunately, one-sided calls for bold action from Israel, and ignoring the
many risks that Israel has already taken, may well make a peace agreement
more difficult to achieve.

4. President Obama: Two wrenching and emotional issues remain: the future of
Jerusalem, and the fate of Palestinian refugees. But moving forward now on
the basis of territory and security provides a foundation to resolve those
two issues in a way that is just and fair, and that respects the rights and
aspirations of Israelis and Palestinians.

This is the only place in the speech mentioning refugees. Nowhere does the
President say that there will be no "right of return
<http://www.camera.org/index.asp?x_context=7&x_issue=7&x_article=185> " and
that the Palestinian refugees (which includes actual refugees and their far
more numerous descendants) will find their homes in a future state of
Palestine and not in Israel. This is a clear departure from previous
Presidents.

For example, in the FoxNews interview
<http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,50830,00.html> , Dennis Ross said that
President Clinton proposed that:

On the issue of refugees, there would be a right of return for the refugees
to their own state, not to Israel, but there would also be a fund of $30
billion internationally that would be put together for either compensation
or to cover repatriation, resettlement, rehabilitation costs.

Similarly, in the Bush Letter
<http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Peace+Process/Reference+Documents/Exchange+of+let
ters+Sharon-Bush+14-Apr-2004.htm> , President Bush said that:

The United States is strongly committed to Israel's security and well-being
as a Jewish state. It seems clear that an agreed, just, fair and realistic
framework for a solution to the Palestinian refugee issue as part of any
final status agreement will need to be found through the establishment of a
Palestinian state, and the settling of Palestinian refugees there, rather
than in Israel.

Omitting this position will likely encourage the Palestinians to harden
their stance on a claimed "right of return" to Israel, which would make
achieving peace that much harder.

5. President Obama: In particular, the recent announcement of an agreement
between Fatah and Hamas raises profound and legitimate questions for Israel
^ how can one negotiate with a party that has shown itself unwilling to
recognize your right to exist. In the weeks and months to come, Palestinian
leaders will have to provide a credible answer to that question. Meanwhile,
the United States, our Quartet partners, and the Arab states will need to
continue every effort to get beyond the current impasse.

Of course, Hamas did not just refuse to recognize Israel's right to exist,
it also engaged in thousands of terror attacks against Israeli civilians,
including suicide bombing and rocket attacks. And while the reconciliation
between Fatah and Hamas certainly raises questions for Israel, does it not
also raise questions for the United States? After all, Hamas is recognized
as a terrorist organization by the United States and by the European Union,
and US aid to a Palestinian Authority that reconciles with Hamas would be
barred by law. This prohibition is contained in thePalestinian
Anti-Terrorism Act of 2006
<http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=s109-2370>  and also
under the Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2009
<http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=h111-2346&version=enr&nid
=t0%3Aenr%3A573>  , which specifically bars funding to any entity related to
Hamas and any government which includes Hamas.

In addition to the legal issues, omitting US concerns regarding Hamas is
also a major departure from prior Presidential policies and promises to
Israel. In the Bush Letter
<http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Peace+Process/Reference+Documents/Exchange+of+let
ters+Sharon-Bush+14-Apr-2004.htm> , for example, President Bush assured
Israel that:

The United States will join with others in the international community to
foster the development of democratic political institutions and new
[Palestinian] leadership committed to those institutions, the reconstruction
of civic institutions, the growth of a free and prosperous economy, and the
building of capable security institutions dedicated to maintaining law and
order and dismantling terrorist organizations.

Is the US now retreating from the Bush promise to foster the dismantling of
Hamas?

And during the Clinton Administration the Interim Agreement
<http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Peace+Process/Guide+to+the+Peace+Process/THE+ISRA
ELI-PALESTINIAN+INTERIM+AGREEMENT.htm>  was negotiated, which required in
Article XIV that:

3. Except for the Palestinian Police and the Israeli military forces, no
other armed forces shall be established or operate in the West Bank and the
Gaza Strip.

4. Except for the arms, ammunition and equipment of the Palestinian Police
described in Annex I, and those of the Israeli military forces, no
organization, group or individual in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip shall
manufacture, sell, acquire, possess, import or otherwise introduce into the
West Bank or the Gaza Strip any firearms, ammunition, weapons, explosives,
gunpowder or any related equipment, unless otherwise provided for in Annex
I.

Additionally, at the Summit of Peacemakers
<http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Peace+Process/Guide+to+the+Peace+Process/Summit+o
f+Peacemakers+-+Sharm+el-Sheikh-+March+13-.htm> , co-hosted by President
Clinton in 1996, the participants pledged:

D. To promote coordination of efforts to stop acts of terror on bilateral,
regional and international levels; ensuring instigators of such acts are
brought to justice; supporting efforts by all parties to prevent their
territories from being used for terrorist purposes; and preventing terrorist
organizations from engaging in recruitment, supplying arms, or fund raising.

E. To exert maximum efforts to identify and determine the sources of
financing for these groups and to cooperate in cutting them off, and by
providing training, equipment and other forms of support to those taking
steps against groups using violence and terror to undermine peace, security
or stability.

And the Roadmap
<http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Peace+Process/Guide+to+the+Peace+Process/A+Perfor
mance-Based+Roadmap+to+a+Permanent+Two-Sta.htm>  under President Bush
required that:

Rebuilt and refocused Palestinian Authority security apparatus begins
sustained, targeted, and effective operations aimed at confronting all those
engaged in terror and dismantlement of terrorist capabilities and
infrastructure. This includes commencing confiscation of illegal weapons and
consolidation of security authority, free of association with terror and
corruption.

So, will Fatah and the PA reconcile with Hamas at the same time that they
dismantle Hamas, as called for in US law, the Oslo Accords, the Bush Letter,
the Summit of Peacemakers and the Roadmap? In his speech, unlike President
Clinton and President Bush, President Obama failed to take any position on
this key issue.

 

And if the Palestinians, the United States, the EU, the UN, etc., are not
expected to live up to these prior agreements, what confidence can Israel
place in any future agreements it is asked to sign with any of these
parties?

6. President Obama: For Israelis, it has meant living with the fear that
their children could get blown up on a bus or by rockets fired at their
homes, as well as the pain of knowing that other children in the region are
taught to hate them.

This is the only place in the speech where President Obama mentions the
incitement to hatred of Jews and Israelis that is prevalent throughout
Palestinian society, despite the fact that it is one of the prime obstacles
to peace, and is specifically barred by many of the agreements between
Israel and the Palestinians. To cite just one example, the Roadmap
<http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Peace+Process/Guide+to+the+Peace+Process/A+Perfor
mance-Based+Roadmap+to+a+Permanent+Two-Sta.htm>  states that:

Palestinian leadership issues unequivocal statement reiterating Israel's
right to exist in peace and security and calling for an immediate and
unconditional ceasefire to end armed activity and all acts of violence
against Israelis anywhere. All official Palestinian institutions end
incitement against Israel.

President Obama's omission is therefore yet another departure from past key
policies. It is unfortunate that while President Obama calls on Israel to
"act boldly," he does not call on the Palestinians to "act boldly" to
finally end this corrosive culture of hatred.



[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]



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