Sayf al-'Adl Outlines New al-Qa'ida Strategy
Vahid Brown http://www.jihadica.com/sayf-al-%E2%80%98adl-outlines-new-al-qa%E2%80%99ida- strategy/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Jihadic a+%28jihadica%29&utm_content=Google+Reader May 23rd, 2011 | AQ Leadership, Strategy A week ago, Sayf al-'Adl, the new/old operational leader of al-Qa'ida, posted online an outline for a strategic transformation of the organization, in a brief message which has thus far gone unnoticed beyond the jihadi blogosphere. Sayf's proposals are offered as "steps toward change" and are new to some extent, having much to do with the "Arab Spring" upheaval in Egypt, Yemen, Syria and elsewhere. Yet the core strategic principles enunciated in this new communication echo his earlier writings on jihadi strategy, as well as his recent lengthy exchange with Abu'l-Walid on the latter's blog. Like these earlier writings, the new message significantly differs from the much vaguer strategic rhetoric of recent years coming from Zawahiri and the official al-Qa'ida media outlets, a point on which the new letter is explicit. In the following I want to introduce jihadica's readers to Sayf's newest letter and, in a follow-up, to place it in the context of his strategic outlook as it has evolved since 9/11. Posted to the Ansar al-Mujahidin forum in mid-May and written under the same pseudonym with which Sayf has been signing his messages to Abu'l-Walid, the new message is entitled "A Letter to the Military Leadership of Qa'idat al-Jihad Organization - [both] the Main and Affiliate Leaders." Qa'idat al-Jihad was the name taken by al-Qa'ida after it merged with Zawahiri's faction of the EIJ, so this letter is clearly directed at Zawahiri's AQ-Central and jihadi organizations that have aligned with it. The message begins with a prefatory note in which Sayf (as "Abir Sabil") writes that "I must clarify at the outset that what I am about to write departs from the general orientation of the Qa'idat al-Jihad organization. This is an outline for the project of a transformed al-Qa'ida organization, addressing several pillars of al-Qa'ida's military thought." Under the heading "Steps towards creating the transformation," Sayf begins by observing that the fundamentals of al-Qa'ida's military strategy are to strike US targets and draw the US into costly military interventions, thus undermining its economy and sapping its strength. He then says that in light of this strategy, two points must be considered. First, even should this strategy succeed, other powers will take America's place, "Europe, China or others," and in any case an outright American collapse would not mean the collapse of the current regimes in the Muslim world. Second, America's economic and military power are utterly dependent on the Muslim world's oil resources; the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have taken a major toll on the US, but the monopolistic capitalism that characterizes its politics serves as a lifeline, so even these military disasters will not be enough to eliminate American power completely. According to Sayf, the only thing that can decisively end American interference is a strong Islamist state. Given this, Sayf argues that the jihad must change course and focus on capitalizing on the chaos created by the revolts in Arab states and on disrupting the flow of oil from the region, with a sideline external-operations focus being attacks on US (or Iranian!) power grids. Sayf is particularly concerned with the growing power of Iran and raises the specter of an Iranian propaganda campaign to convert the Sunni masses to Shi'ism. He says that the mujahidin must aid the Arab revolutions most endangered by state repression, especially in Syria, "Iran's strong hand in the region," arguing that a successful take-over of Syria by mujahidin forces would lead to a domino effect engulfing Jordan and Lebanon, which will both encircle Saudi Arabia - assuming Egypt and Yemen continue in their revolutionary trajectories - and "tighten the noose around Israel," putting the mujahidin leadership in place to shut off the oil to the West. He mentions that after the Japanese disaster nuclear power is not a viable alternative to oil, other options are too expensive, and a significant disruption of the oil is all the jihad needs to put an end to Western dominance. It is in this context that he mentions attacks on American and Iranian energy grids, which "though not impossible," would require tremendous resources and entail great security risks. Instead, the leaders of the world's jihadi organizations need to look to the example of the Libyan revolutionaries, the anti-Soviet mujahidin in Afghanistan, and Hamas in Gaza, and turn to building up for large-scale attacks on major cities, and in this way "liberate the cities of Syria, Yemen, and Sunni Iraq." Such is the gist of Sayf al-'Adl's first effort at offering new strategic direction to international jihadism. But while this may "depart from the main orientation" of Zawahiri's Qa'idat al-Jihad, it does echoes in broad outline what Sayf has been saying for years. In his most recent letters to Abu'l-Walid, for instance, Sayf has focused much of his attention on providing military assessments of the conditions of the revolts in various Arab countries, with advice for the rebels in Libya and optimistic outlooks for a Yemeni state collapse. He reiterated in these letters the main outlines of al-Qa'ida's strategy in attacking the United States on 9/11, and stated that after bringing the US to the brink of economic collapse all that was left to do was imperil the oil supply and the victory would be at hand. ========================================== (F)AIR USE NOTICE: All original content and/or articles and graphics in this message are copyrighted, unless specifically noted otherwise. All rights to these copyrighted items are reserved. Articles and graphics have been placed within for educational and discussion purposes only, in compliance with "Fair Use" criteria established in Section 107 of the Copyright Act of 1976. The principle of "Fair Use" was established as law by Section 107 of The Copyright Act of 1976. 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