Obama vs Netanyahu, Round Three
by Daniel Pipes May 24, 2011 Cross-posted from National Review Online <http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/268055/obama-vs-netanyahu-round-three- daniel-pipes> http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2011/05/obama-vs-netanyahu-round-three Barack Obama gave two major policy speeches about the Middle East in quick succession, May 19 and 22; and while he discussed a number of Middle East topics, the Arab-Israeli conflict portion received the lion's share of attention. Analysts and politicians who care about the Middle East's only democratic country (yes, I use that formulation now that Turkey is under AKP control) have excoriated Obama and see Israel in great jeopardy. For example, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich <http://www.ktiv.com/story/14687663/gingrich-obama-plan-for-israel-palestine -a-disaster> called the speech "a disaster" and said that Obama, in effect, asked Israel "to commit suicide." I see things more positively for Israel. My reasoning: This is Obama's third gratuitous, unprovoked, and unilateral picking of a fight with Israel. The prior two took place in May 2009 <http://www.danielpipes.org/7464/obama-israel-into-the-abyss> andMarch 2010 <http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/mar/09/israel-jerusalem-settlement-hom es-biden> : in the one, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared no Israeli building even in eastern Jerusalem and in the other, Vice President Joe Biden got (mock?) outraged when such building did take place. In all three cases, the fight dwelt on a secondary issue that few had been focused on - Israeli building in the first two cases and the June 4, 1967 ceasefire lines as the basis for a permanent border agreement - until Obama turned them into headlines. Obama's picking a fight led in all cases to an immediate hardening of positions by both Israelis and Palestinians. Israelis retreated, wounded, disinclined to make concessions, while Palestinians added Obama's demands, Jerusalem <http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/28/AR200905280 3614_pf.html> and the 1967 lines <http://www.jta.org/news/article/2011/05/22/3087798/palestinians-israel-must -accept-1967-border-as-basis-for-negotiations> , to their prior list of demands of Israel. When Obama realized his mistake - that Israeli governments make concessions more readily when relations with Washington are strong and Palestinians need to be pressured, not coddled - he crawled back to the Israeli prime minister, making nice as though nothing had happened. This has occurred twice already, in September 2009 <http://www.danielpipes.org/7665/netanyahu-quiet-success> and July 2010 <http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/06/AR201007060 4005_pf.html> . TheWashington Post's Dana Milbank used choice language to describe the latter episode, describing a "routed and humiliated" Obama in a White House flying "the white flag of surrender." I predict that a "routed and humiliated" Obama will regret his ill-chosen fight over the 1967 lines and, if he follows his prior schedule, should be crawling back to the prime minister in about four months' time, or September 2011. In conclusion: As someone opposed to Arab-Israeli negotiations while war is underway and to Obama's presidency, I take solace in his making a hash of diplomacy and politics. This way, Israel is less likely to make more counterproductive "painful concessions" and, with a slew of former Obama supporters <http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/may/22/obamas-speech-doesnt-sway-s ome-key-donors/> abandoning him, Obama has hurt his chances for reelection. (May 24, 2011) Related Topics: Arab-Israel conflict <http://www.danielpipes.org/topics/2/arab-israel-conflict-diplomacy> & diplomacy, US policy <http://www.danielpipes.org/topics/42/us-policy> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------------------ -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [email protected]. -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [email protected] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: [email protected] Subscribe: [email protected] Unsubscribe: [email protected] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. OSINT, as a part of The Intelligence Network, is making it available without profit to OSINT YahooGroups members who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information in their efforts to advance the understanding of intelligence and law enforcement organizations, their activities, methods, techniques, human rights, civil liberties, social justice and other intelligence related issues, for non-profit research and educational purposes only. We believe that this constitutes a 'fair use' of the copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Law. If you wish to use this copyrighted material for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use,' you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtmlYahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/osint/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/osint/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: [email protected] [email protected] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [email protected] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
