http://www.hstoday.us/single-article/experts-weigh-likely-terror-attacks-fut ure-of-al-qaeda-after-death-of-bin-laden/4697000ae4d46a8d857018c25e40293c.ht ml
Experts Weigh Likely Terror Attacks, Future of Al Qaeda after Death of Bin Laden By: Mickey McCarter 05/26/2011 (12:00am) Authorities should prepare for a higher short-term threat to the US homeland after the death of Osama bin Laden but the long-term outlook for al Qaeda is weakening, experts told the House Homeland Security Committee Wednesday. Rep. Peter King (R-NY), chair of the committee, opened the hearing with reflections that many people think the war on terrorism is over now that bin Laden has been killed by US forces. "In the short run, the threat is probably greater than it was. Long-term there is no doubt the death of bin Laden is positive for so many reasons," King said, drawing agreement from a panel of experts. In the short term, operatives from al Qaeda and its affiliates likely will attack American resources to avenge the death of bin Laden, said Frances Townsend, former counter-terrorism advisor to President George W. Bush. But the United States also must maintain homeland security capabilities in the long term, warned Townsend, now a senior vice president at MacAndrews and Forbes Holdings Inc. "Capability is built over time. As we found in the immediate after 9/11, it cannot be quickly reacquired after a crisis," Townsend stated. While al Qaeda would find it difficult to attack the United States on the scale of an attack similar to 9/11 due to defenses built up over the past 10 years, it still will aspire to smaller scale attacks, she said. Townsend emphasized that al Qaeda has remained obsessed with attacking transportation systems and the United States has not been spending enough on rail security in response to the terrorist organization's track record of attacking mass transit systems. The United States also has not strengthened cargo security to the degree that it should, Townsend said. Overseas, the United States must "must re-evaluate our relationship with Pakistan but we must carefully consider the alternatives and consequences of partnership with Pakistan," Townsend stated. As Pakistan has become a nuclear state, instability in the country could result in terrorists obtaining a nuclear weapon -- a worst-case scenario for US national security. Lee Hamilton, former vice chair of the 9/11 Commission, stressed that a terrorist attack would come from core al Qaeda or one of its affiliates to avenge bin Laden's death but such an attack could happen at any time. "Al Qaeda and its affiliates will almost certainly attempt to avenge him. They will not necessarily attack soon. The threat from al Qaeda is more diverse and more complex than ever -- although less severe than the catastrophic proportions of the 9/11 attacks. It continues to hope to inflict mass casualties in the United States," Hamilton said in written testimony. The intelligence gained from the raid on bin Laden's compound on May 2, when Navy SEALs shot him dead, likely will produce valuable information on al Qaeda targets, which the United States must protect, said Hamilton, now co-chair of the Bipartisan Policy Center's National Security Preparedness Group. Townsend and Hamilton also called upon the administration and Congress to agree on comprehensive immigration reform, casting legislation to provide legal status to illegal immigrants seeking economic opportunities in the United States as a necessity so that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) can focus its resources on active national security threats. Essentially, Border Patrol and US Immigration and Customs Enforcement should spend more of its time attempting to deal with illegal immigrants and smugglers outside of economic migrants coming from Latin America, Townsend and Hamilton suggested. Evan Kohlmann of Flashpoint Global Partners urged policymakers to focus more on monitoring or breaking up jihadist activity on the Internet. Companies that host material from al Qaeda and its affiliates or other radicals unintentionally support the goals of terrorism, Kohlmann argued. The United States should put more pressure on these companies to close down terrorist forums and remove recruiting materials and the like from the Web. Future of al Qaeda Townsend described al Qaeda as engaged in an internal conflict over who should lead the organization after bin Laden. No permanent new leader of the organization has emerged, highlighting that the terrorists lacked a succession plan in the event of bin Laden's death. "The chaos at the top of al Qaeda is an important targeting opportunity for the United States," Townsend stated, noting that authorities could trace terrorist chatter and strike against the organization while it was mostly leaderless. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) remains the most active threat to the United States, however, demonstrating its ability to strike at the US homeland by supporting the Fort Hood massacre in 2009, the Christmas Day bomber in 2009, and the toner cartridge cargo attack in 2010, Townsend said. Anwar al-Awlaki, APAQ's leader, has been an active threat due to his ability to speak in colloquial English to extremists who would attack the United States, the experts agreed. Material connected to al-Awlaki has been uncovered in every homegrown terrorism case investigated in the United States, asserted Kohlmann. The Pakistan Taliban also remains a threat for its interest in training and equipping lone wolf attackers like Times Square bomber Faisal Shahzad, Townsend added. The death of bin Laden is the most significant achievement in the war on terror, Hamilton said, involving unprecedented cooperation between military and intelligence forces. "The raid took hard work, cooperation, vigilance, and tenacity, over a period of years," he said. "It involved surveillance, analysis of many bits of information, interceptions, and the extraordinary skills of our Special Operations Forces. The CIA and the military worked together seamlessly. The raid was a culmination of intense and tireless efforts on the part of many dedicated national security personnel over a period of many years." The successful raid clearly resulted from reforms produced from efforts such as the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 (Public Law 108-45), Hamilton declared. But Hamilton cautioned, "Although Osama bin Laden is dead, al Qaeda is not -- it is a network, not a hierarchy. Over a period of years, al Qaeda has been very adaptive and resilient. Bin Laden's death is certainly a setback for al Qaeda but likely not its demise." It's next likely leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, does not have the charisma or leadership skills of bin Laden, who commanded great personal loyalty throughout the terrorist organization, Hamilton said. Still, "[w]e should not underestimate Zawahiri. He is extremely pious, ruthless; he is not a lightweight; he has been instrumental in al Qaeda's strategy, development, and evolution over a period of years," he said. Although al-Awlaki is likely to remain a threat as head of APAQ, he is unlikely to rise further in the al Qaeda ranks, predicted Peter Bergen, national security studies director at the New America Foundation. Al-Awlaki cannot change the strategic intent of al Qaeda, Bergen characterized. He is an effective English speaker, but he is not a particularly powerful military or religious figure. APAQ could attempt to extend its reach through an alliance with al-Shabaab in Africa, but any attacks on which the two organizations collaborate would likely remain limited to the Middle East or Africa and not reach the US homeland directly, Bergen said. [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------------------ -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [email protected]. -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [email protected] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: [email protected] Subscribe: [email protected] Unsubscribe: [email protected] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. 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