By Rachel Oswald
http://gsn.nti.org/siteservices/print_friendly.php?ID=nw_20110526_8524

 
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON -- The terrorist network al-Qaeda is faced with an "internal
power struggle" weeks after the death of founder and longtime leader Osama
bin Laden, a counterterrorism expert testified before the U.S. House
Homeland Security Committee on Wednesday (see GSN, May 25).

(May. 26) - Members of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, shown in an online
video. The Yemen-based organization is seen as the most pressing terrorist
threat to the continental United States, a former Bush administration
counterterrorism adviser told lawmakers on Wednesday (Getty Images).

Bin Laden was killed this month during a U.S. commando raid on his compound
in Abbottabad, Pakistan.

Al-Jazeera last week reported that Egyptian extremist Saif al-Adel had been
named interim chief of the terrorist group. Al-Adel, who helped develop the
1998 bombings of two U.S. embassies in Africa, is viewed as al-Qaeda's
senior most military commander. His promotion was a surprise to some
terrorism experts who anticipated that bin Laden's longtime deputy, Ayman
al-Zawahiri, would be named the new permanent leader (see GSN, May 18).

"Al-Qaeda has failed to name a new leader because there is clearly an
internal power struggle. There was no agreed-upon succession plan. There is
no one of bin Laden's stature to inspire and guide operations and quell
disputes," former Bush administration counterterrorism adviser Fran Townsend
said during a hearing on threats to the nation.

Committee ranking member Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) noted that "in every
group, the death of a leader causes disarray and confusion among the
followers. These periods of transition can last for weeks or years.

"When we consider the safety of our country, the question that matters most
is: What will we do while the terrorists are in the throes of transition?"
he said.

Townsend indicated that Washington could exploit "the chaos at the top of
al-Qaeda" but warned of the continued threat posed by various militant
organizations, particularly the Yemen-based al-Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula.

The group has been connected to the attempted Christmas Day 2009 bombing of
a passenger aircraft as it prepared to land in Detroit and for the effort to
hide explosives in printer cartridges loaded onto cargo aircraft (see GSN,
Nov. 3, 1010). It is also believed to have an interest in acquiring
biological and chemical weapons, according to U.S. officials (see GSN, Feb.
11).

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula "has both the intent to attack and has
demonstrated some capability," Townsend said. The group "was behind the
Nidal Hasan Fort Hood event, the attempted Christmas Day under bomber and
the recent computer cartridges attempt. ... There are other [al-Qaeda]
affiliates that I won't go into in depth -- the one in North Africa, those
in Somalia and Asia -- but AQAP poses the most immediate threat."

Without bin Laden's unifying leadership it is not clear what direction
increasingly diffuse al-Qaeda regional cells will take in choosing new
targets to strike. A trove of captured intelligence from the Abbottabad
compound has revealed that the deceased Saudi national repeatedly urged his
followers to focus their attacks on U.S. targets as opposed to regional
locations.

The Pakistani Taliban, which provided training to failed Times Square bomber
Faisal Shahzad, is also a "direct threat" to the United States, Townsend
said (see GSN, Oct. 5, 2010).

"We must be careful not to write off radical groups that appear only
regionally or locally focused, as was the initial belief of the Pakistan
Taliban. Lashkar-e-Taiba, LeT, which was behind the Mumbai attack, is
currently the subject of the trial in Chicago right now (see GSN, May 24).
And the Haqqani network in the Pakistan tribal areas continues to target and
kill coalition forces in Afghanistan," Townsend said.

The Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility for this week's attack on a
naval base in Karachi, an event that points to a less-capable Pakistani
military that was previously believed, she said. The assault has renewed
worries about the security of the South Asian nation's nuclear weapons (see
GSN, May 24).

Committee Chairman Peter King (R-N.Y.) said he believes the risk to the
United States of another terrorist attack has been heightened in the near
future.

"Just looking at al-Qaeda's own language, the fact is that they feel they
have to not just avenge [the death of bin Laden], but they have to show the
rest of the world, the rest of the Muslim world, the rest of the terror
world that they are viable, that they are vibrant as before," the lawmaker
said.

Thompson said he was concerned by potential vulnerabilities that could be
exploited by a proposed $1 billion reduction to the Homeland Security
Department budget for fiscal 2012.

Townsend also warned against unwise budget cuts and emphasized the need for
maintaining security measures such as the controversial Patriot Act.

"We must prevent terrorists from getting a nuclear or ... biological weapon,
and that means we must ensure we have the ability to respond by maintaining
the Strategic National Stockpile and our other unique operational
capabilities," she said.

Former Representative Lee Hamilton, one of the leaders of the Sept. 11
commission, said the nation is "undoubtedly safer and more secure" than at
the time of the 2001 attacks. However, he testified he also worries about
the failure by Washington to take up some of the commission's terrorism
defense recommendations.

A key point is oversight of U.S. intelligence services and the Homeland
Security Department, according to Hamilton.

"The committee is well aware -- better than most anybody else -- of the
fractured oversight of DHS," he said. "I need not give the statistics to
you. It's an inefficient allocation of limited resources needed to secure
our nation, and the massive department of the DHS will be much better
integrated if there is integrated oversight."

The National Security Preparedness Group, led by Hamilton and former Sept.
11 commission Chairman Thomas Kean, expects to soon issue a report with
proposals for bolstering protections against "radicalization," the former
lawmaker told the committee.

"Because ... al-Qaeda and its affiliates with not give up, we cannot let our
guard down," he said.

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