The wonderful aspect is that it is Muslims killing Muslims.  Confusion to
the enemy!

B

The Sweet Scam And The Last Straw

Strategy May 30, 2011

On May 22nd, a small group of Taliban, wearing military uniforms, got 
into the Pakistan Naval Station at Mehran (outside of Karachi), killed 
twenty people and destroyed two of Pakistan's four P-3C maritime patrol 
aircraft, along with a helicopter. Four of the attackers were killed, 
but at least two were seen to get away. The Pakistani Taliban took 
credit for the attack, and said twenty people were involved (although 
only six were seen.) Coming after the May 2nd American raid that killed 
Osama bin Laden within sight of the Pakistani Military Academy (and a 
town full of Pakistani troops and retired officers), something 
unexpected happened. The Pakistani media, and most Pakistanis, turned on 
the military. This included many media outlets that had long been 
pro-military, and many individuals noted their long support of the 
military, as they now admitted that this support was undeserved.

The criticism usually made it clear that there was still plenty of 
support for the troops, but that the military leadership was not up to 
the task, and had not been for some time. For the few dozen senior 
generals and admirals who do run the armed forces, this change in public 
opinion is the worst threat they have ever faced. Actually, even more 
senior officers may be in danger as well. That's because the senior 
officers have long been known for their corruption and high-handed 
behavior (as in taking over the government periodically).

It was also the military that adopted the policy of supporting Islamic 
terror groups for attacks on India. The military had not been able to 
beat the Indians in a conventional war, so perhaps Islamic terrorists 
would have more luck. But this arrangement came with strings. That is, 
the Islamic radicals wanted Sharia (Islamic law) made the law of the 
land and, eventually, the country was to be run by clerics (as Iran is). 
While many Pakistanis supported these ideas, neither of them worked. The 
Islamic terrorist attacks on India merely enraged India and have brought 
the two nations to the brink of nuclear war several times. Sharia has 
not done anything about the massive corruption in Pakistan, but it did 
reveal that Islamic clerics can be just as corrupt as your average 
Pakistani politician or military officer. So the Mehran raid was, for 
many Pakistanis, the last straw (as in "the one that broke the camel's 
back").

Since the late 1940s, most Pakistanis have supported their armed forces, 
despite losing every war it has fought, and taking a disproportionate 
chunk of the government budget (over half). But this support has been 
eroding for years. Now, the military has to fear for the worst. This 
will either be the dismissal of many senior officers or, worse yet, 
sharp cuts in the defense budget. That will be justified by widespread 
realization that it has been the military that has been portraying India 
as a constant threat when, in fact, India is anything but (Pakistanis 
who read Indian newspapers kept wondering about that.)
But for the moment, the scam the generals and admirals have devised is 
still working. Last year, Pakistan increased its defense budget 17 
percent for this year, to $5.2 billion. While Pakistan increases its 
defense spending every year, to try and keep up with archrival India, it 
rarely goes up this much. The increase this year was mostly due to the 
war against the Taliban in the tribal territories, and Islamic terrorism 
in general. At the same time, most of the increase is covered by 
military aid from the United States (which has provided some $10 billion 
in military aid in the last eight years.) However, the new recently 
reached Pakistan that this aid was being cut because American auditors 
had found many of the bills Pakistan submitted, for goods and services 
needed to fight terrorists, that the U.S. said it would cover, were 
false. The U.S. accountants believed that, at least in the last year, 
someone in the Pakistani military was stealing at least 40 percent of 
the money.

Most Pakistanis have only recently become aware of the full extent of 
military corruption. For example, it was only three years ago that, for 
the first time in over four decades, Pakistan revealed details on its 
defense spending. In 2008, the Pakistani defense budget was $4.1 
billion. That figure explains why this data has been kept secret for so 
long. That's because Pakistan's military rival, and neighbor, India was, 
three years ago, increasing its defense budget by nearly 50 percent, to 
$39 billion (mainly to deal with China). The difference should be no 
surprise. India has six times the population (at 1.1 billion) and 7.5 
times the GDP ($1.1 trillion compared to $145 billion) of Pakistan. 
India's economy has been booming for over a decade, while Pakistan's 
largely stagnates.

This military spending disparity has long been suspected, even with the 
secrecy. The GDP differences were well known, as were the details of how 
the two forces were equipped. This, of course, is why Pakistan put so 
much effort into developing nuclear weapons. Only this would provide a 
credible defense against a foe with superior conventional forces. 
Pakistan has been spending about three percent of GDP on defense, while 
India was long been spending two percent (the recent increase will make 
it three percent). The global average back then was about 2.5 percent. 
The most dominant military powers on the planet spend at least three 
percent of GDP on defense. Pakistan is neither rich nor dominant and has 
been spending money it doesn't have, in a vain effort to keep up with 
its much larger neighbor. Now that India has matched Pakistan's three 
percent, Pakistan has to seriously consider peace, because they can't 
afford to go above three percent of GDP. But peace would derail the 
sweet scam the Pakistani generals and admirals have been running for 
decades.

Then there's one final insult. Over the last few years, India has 
accounted that Pakistan is no longer the main potential military 
adversary. No, now it's China, and India has been redeploying its 
forces, and military spending, accordingly. Thus the Pakistani military 
has a high opinion of itself that is not shared by the Pakistani people, 
local Islamic terrorists or long-time arch foe India.



[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]



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