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Thursday, 06.02.11


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Pakistan's bin Laden probe falters before it even starts

 


By SAEED SHAH


McClatchy Newspapers


ISLAMABAD -- A month after U.S. Navy SEALs shot and killed Osama bin Laden,
Pakistan's investigation into how the al-Qaida leader hid out here
undetected for at least five years has hit major stumbling blocks even
before it has begun, leaving politicians and analysts to wonder whether
Pakistan will ever get to the bottom of the affair.

A five-member commission was named Tuesday to oversee the probe, nearly a
month after U.S. Navy SEALs shot and killed bin Laden on May 2 in the
northern Pakistani town of Abbottabad. But one of the members declined to
serve and the others have said they were never asked if they were willing to
undertake what's likely to be a controversial assignment.

On Thursday, the leader of the biggest opposition party rejected the inquiry
team, while a lawsuit was filed in the courts to block its work. Pakistani
public opinion, meanwhile, is badly divided, with many Pakistanis openly
skeptical that bin Laden was killed in Abbottabad on May 2, believing
instead that the U.S. staged the incident to allow it to pressure Pakistan
over other matters. 

The U.S. has demanded that Pakistan explain how bin Laden remained hidden
until he was tracked down by U.S. commandos and determine what "support
network" sustained him while he was hiding in Pakistan. But few here think
Pakistan will be able to do so satisfactorily, with the commission's
independence and organization in question.

U.S. hopes that the Pakistani military will launch a major offensive in
North Waziristan, the Pakistani region believed to be a sanctuary for both
Afghan insurgents and al-Qaida, also face a tough road. Pakistani officials
have offered conflicting views about whether such an operation will take
place, and some believe that if it does, it will be limited in scope -
unlikely to satisfy U.S. demands.

The one bright spot in U.S.-Pakistan terrorist cooperation appears to be an
agreement to jointly hunt down four al-Qaida and Afghan insurgency leaders
thought by U.S. officials to be in Pakistan.

The commission "mandated to ascertain the full facts regarding the presence
of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan" will be headed by Javed Iqbal, a sitting
member of Pakistan's Supreme Court. Neither he nor the chief justice was
consulted on the appointment, according to Asma Jahangir, a distinguished
lawyer who leads the senior bar association in Pakistan.

A retired judge who was also named to the panel, Fakhruddin G. Ebrahim, said
he wouldn't serve, and analysts have called into question the independence
of the other three: a retired general, a former police chief and an
ex-Pakistani ambassador.

"The commission has been stillborn. The government never had any intention
of holding a serious inquiry," said Najam Sethi, a political analyst.
"They've handed over all decision-making on foreign policy and terrorism to
the military."

Jihadists and their ties to the military are deeply sensitive issues in
Pakistan, sure to be at the center of any serious inquiry into the bin Laden
debacle. Also key to the investigation will be determining why, or if,
Pakistan's intelligence services failed to detect his presence.

But whether the commission could tackle such issues remains an open
question. While the government of President Asif Ali Zardari, elected in
2008, did initially try to exercise some control over security and foreign
policy, the effort was challenged by the military and many believe now that
Zardari largely has given up trying to exercise control over those issues. 

Nawaz Sharif, a former prime minister who heads the main opposition party,
the Pakistan Muslim League-N, which forced the government to agree to an
independent commission, said Thursday that the members of the inquiry team
had been chosen "unilaterally," without consulting his party.

"It has been a month since May 2nd. What is the government afraid of?
Revealing some secrets? Those secrets should be opened," Sharif told a news
conference in Islamabad.

While Washington had initially suggested that the Pakistani military could
be "complicit" in hiding bin Laden, which incensed the Pakistan's uniformed
commanders, the U.S. has since stated that there is "no evidence" of any
high level official knowledge of his whereabouts. However, to re-establish
trust in Islamabad, the U.S. has asked for co-operation in hunting down some
of its most-wanted extremist leaders.

A U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the
sensitivity of the issue, said that there was an agreement for "joint
cooperation" on killing or capturing at least four figures: al-Qaida deputy
leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar, key Afghan
insurgency commander Sirajuddin Haqqani and Pakistani militant Ilyas
Kashmiri, who has close ties to al-Qaida. Like bin Laden, U.S. intelligence
believes that they're all on Pakistani territory. Haqqani and Kashmiri were
based in North Waziristan, though they may have recently relocated.

The Pakistani military has given mixed signals in recent days about whether
it will bow to long-standing U.S. demands for an operation in North
Waziristan.

This week a Pakistani general, Asif Yasin Malik, didn't rule out an
offensive there but said that an operation would come "when it is militarily
and otherwise in the national interest." The Pakistani army has consistently
said that its forces are stretched elsewhere.

Aid organizations in Pakistan told McClatchy Newspapers this week that they
hadn't been told to prepare for an imminent operation in North Waziristan.
Any full-scale offensive would mean that the population of the area would
come flooding out, which would require humanitarian assistance.

A more limited operation could clear the two major towns in North
Waziristan, Mir Ali and Miram Shah, but that would still leave the rest of
the area as a staging post for Afghan insurgents, especially those from the
Haqqani network.



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