http://www.geostrategy-direct.com/geostrategy-direct/secure/2011/07_20/ne.as
p
China's growing assertiveness in S. China Sea seen as prelude to war
China's aggressive assertion of maritime controls over the South China Sea
is increasing the risk of a future war in Asia, according to an Australian
think tank.
The Sydney-based Lowy Institute for International Policy said Chinese
military activities in both South and East China Seas, combined with China's
growing demands for resources and greater assertiveness, is the basis for
the assessment.
"The sea lanes of Indo-Pacific Asia are becoming more crowded, contested and
vulnerable to armed strife," the study said. "Naval and air forces are being
strengthened amid shifting balances of economic strategic weight." The
report was written by Rory Medcalf and Raoul Heinrichs.
"China's frictions with the United States, Japan and India are likely to
persist and intensify," it said. "As the number and tempo of incidents
increases, so does the likelihood that an episode will escalate to armed
confrontation, diplomatic crisis or possibly even conflict."
The report said increased maritime patrols and surveillance, growing
nationalism and resources disputes are making the management of disputes
over maritime sovereignty more difficult.
"All of these factors are making Asia a danger zone for incidents at sea:
close-range encounters involving vessels and aircraft from competing powers,
typically in sensitive or contested zones," the report said.
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