http://www.geostrategy-direct.com/geostrategy-direct/secure/2011/08_17/2.asp
'Al Qaida 2.0' deemed more westernized with 'fewer cave dwellers' WASHINGTON - The U.S. intelligence community is preparing for the emergence of the second generation of Al Qaida. Officials said military intelligence and other agencies have assessed that the organization of Osama bin Laden was being eclipsed by powerful regional Islamic networks. They said the U.S. assassination of Bin Laden in May virtually paralyzed the central Al Qaida leadership in Afghanistan and Pakistan. "I think the death of Bin Laden was an uppercut to the jaw," U.S. Special Operations Forces commander Adm. Eric Olson said. "It just knocked them on their heels." In a July 27 address to the Aspen Security Forum, Olson outlined an intelligence assessment that envisioned a transformation of Al Qaida. Olson, the longest-serving Navy SEAL, said "Al Qaida 1.0" has been replaced by "Al Qaida 2.0," an amorphous network of cells, many of them with dual nationals, including Americans. "It will become in some ways more Westernized dual passport holders, fewer cave dwellers," Olson said. Bin Laden has been replaced by his deputy, Ayman Zawahiri, an Egyptian. In his address, Olson did not dismiss the new Al Qaida chief, but stressed that the key threat stemmed from new network chiefs, particularly Anwar Al Awlaki, commander of Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula and born in the United States. "Zawahiri hasn't really exercised the full authority of his position," Olson said. "He hasn't become a one-for-one replacement for bin Laden, and he may have acknowledged that he won't be that." Olson said the second generation of Al Qaida would become more regional and include many more commanders. He said the insurgency movement was also refining its message in a process that has raised concern. "They will continue to need places to operate from," Olson said. "They will continue to need sanctuary. They will have to find a way to get past increasing security. I'm concerned that they are focused on that. But we'll see how quickly they learn those lessons." Officials said Al Qaida has been stunned by the revolts in Sunni Arab regimes throughout the Middle East. They said the revolts, which ousted two North African presidents and were threatening two other dictators, undermined Al Qaida's campaign of replacing pro-Western governments. "There were more governments overthrown this year than overthrown throughout their [Al Qaida] entire existence," Olson said. "I think they lost steam as a result of the Arab Spring." Al Awlaki was identified as one of the most dangerous of the new generation of Al Qaida commanders. Olson said Al Awlaki understands Americans better than they understand him and would use sophisticated methods for recruitment and operations. Olson urged Washington to train U.S. officers and counter-insurgency operatives to learn the languages and cultures employed by the new Al Qaida networks. He said such an effort would take years but was preferable to another U.S. invasion, such as Afghanistan or Iraq. "It's about developing long-term relationships, learning languages, meeting people, studying histories, learning black markets," Olson said. "If you don't know that, you won't be an effective counterterrorism force." [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] ------------------------------------ -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, discuss-os...@yahoogroups.com. -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor biso...@intellnet.org http://www.intellnet.org Post message: osint@yahoogroups.com Subscribe: osint-subscr...@yahoogroups.com Unsubscribe: osint-unsubscr...@yahoogroups.com *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. 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