i agree, it's going to be more than just 3d printing, nevertheless, this report is really grist to our mill in terms of the legitimacy and realism of cosmo-local production,
Michel On Fri, Oct 6, 2017 at 8:13 PM, Bob Haugen <[email protected]> wrote: > I don't doubt that more-automated local production is coming, but I wonder > if 3d printing is too narrow a focus. For example, > > Quality of 3D printed products falls short in some cases (Reeves and > Mendis, 2015). > For example, printed metal products sometimes contain holes and some > products > require an accuracy that 3D printers cannot deliver yet. According to > Kannekens it > will take quite some time to close this accuracy gap. “It took 3D printers > ten years to > raise the accuracy by a factor five, so you can imagine that increasing > the accuracy > by a factor ten, as needed to serve companies like ASML, will also take > many years.” > > Automated milling machines and automated manufacturing systems have been > around for awhile and I think can fill in the gaps of 3d printing. > https://madisoncollege.edu/program/automated-manufacturing-systems- > technology > > http://wiki.p2pfoundation.net/Cube_Spawn is a potential P2P-appropriate > example. > > On Fri, Oct 6, 2017 at 7:52 AM, Sharon Ede <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Yes. And governments are merrily planning for export-led economic >> development in a world that will no longer exist... >> >> On 6 October 2017 at 23:08, Michel Bauwens <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> >>> this is quite an explosive report in my view: >>> >>> >>> 3D printing a threat to global trade.pdf >>> <https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8ojYwSnwORKUzhZZ3piT2M1ZlE/view?usp=drive_web> >>> >>> >>> Executive summary 3D printing is still in its infancy. For now it has >>> very little effect on cross-border trade. This will change once high >>> speed 3D printing makes mass production with 3D printers economically >>> viable. The first technical steps have already been taken. 3D printing >>> will lead to less trade growth because 3D printers use far less labour, >>> reducing the need to import intermediate and final goods from low wage >>> countries. It is tricky to define the exact potential of 3D printing, but >>> some experts expect a share of 50% in manufacturing over the next two >>> decades. Tentative calculations show that, if the current growth of >>> investment in 3D printers continues, 50% of manufactured goods will be >>> printed in 2060 in scenario I, with this figure possibly being achieved as >>> early as 2040 in scenario II in which investment doubles every five years. >>> This is estimated to wipe out almost one quarter of world trade by 2060 >>> under scenario I (or two-fifths by 2040 under scenario II). Automotive, >>> industrial machinery and consumer products are the industries that, as a >>> result of 3D printing, will take the lead in suppressing cross border trade >>> These industries are top investors in 3D printers and are large players in >>> world trade. In automotive, the dominant bilateral trade flows are >>> exports from Mexico, Japan, Germany and Canada to the US. So these flows >>> will be most affected by 3D printing. Locally printed car parts will >>> increase jobs at US-based automotive factories. In industrial machinery >>> and consumer products, the largest bilateral export flows also have the US >>> as their main destination. China is the main origin country. The >>> direction of flows in the most important 3D printing industries will lower >>> US trade deficits with Mexico and Germany (automotive) and China (machines, >>> consumer products), all large contributors to the US trade deficit. Less >>> trade means that countries with trade deficits in manufacturing will see >>> deficits decline. This will be more pronounced for countries that import >>> relatively many products from leading industries in 3D printing. Countries >>> with a surplus in manufacturing trade will see their surpluses shrink, >>> especially if they currently export many products that will be 3D printed >>> in the near future >>> >>> >>> >>> . >>> >>> >>> >>> -- >>> P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net - >>> http://blog.p2pfoundation.net >>> >>> Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss: >>> http://lists.ourproject.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/p2p-foundation >>> >>> Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens; >>> http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >> > -- P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss: http://lists.ourproject.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/p2p-foundation Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens; http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens
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