Hi Kelley. Thanks for that interesting article. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Kelly Pierce" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Saturday, April 03, 2004 11:35 AM Subject: Face the music
> Here's what is projected to be the future of recorded music in the next five > years. More audio on the PC and fewer people paying $18 for an album. > > Kelly > > > Chicago Sun-Times > March 28, 2004 > > > Face the music > > > BY JIM DEROGATIS > POP MUSIC CRITIC > > > The music industry stands at an historic crossroads -- almost every > aspect of the way people consume and listen to popular music is changing, > dwarfing even the seismic shift in the 1880s when music lovers turned from > sheet music and player pianos to wax cylinders and later, in 1915, > newfangled 78 rpm phonograph discs. > > The one thing all of the experts agree upon is that these changes -- > which are already under way -- will be dramatic, quick and inevitable. But > no one knows exactly where they will lead. > > Compact discs, the dominant form of recorded music today, may be > extinct within the next few years -- or they may continue to appeal to some > percentage (know one knows the exact number) of (probably older) music > buyers, while young listeners turn exclusively to downloaded music files. > > Concerts as we know them may become much rarer -- or they may > experience a revival on a smaller level, up to mid-size theaters, so long > as promoters offer great sounds at a good value. > > Mom-and-pop record stores may disappear, as a consequence of > downloading music and shopping online -- or they may become ever-more > specialized and valued centers of the music scene. > > Similarly, the audience for AM and FM radio may dwindle, thanks to > competition from satellite and Internet broadcasting -- or it may survive, > if programmers continue to view their stations as a center for communities > and not just pre-programmed jukeboxes. > > To get some picture of what the future might hold, the Sun-Times turned > to 20 of the top people in the Chicago music industry -- including concert > promoters, retailers and radio programmers -- and asked all of them the > same question: Look into your crystal ball and tell us what you think the > music industry will look like five years from now. > > Their answers are illuminating, and they offer as clear a picture of > the future of music as anyone today can accurately predict. > > Ken Waagner Internet music consultant > > Waagner, who works with artists such as Wilco and Lucinda Williams, > coordinating their presence on the Web, believes that CDs will still be a > part of the music world in five years, but the shift toward the Internet is > irreversible. > > "It's a generational thing," he said. "Over the age of 25, people will > continue to have an attachment to CDs. Under 25, they may never buy a CD, > ever. I see an iPod being in every kid's life, or a Windows media player > being in everyone's hand. > > "From a record company standpoint, it behooves them not to have > physical goods: There are breakage and shipping costs and manufacturing > costs, and selling files online is easier, cheaper and has higher profit > margins. What I really see is that more and more you will see artists being > less dependent on the record company as a whole." > > Tera Siwicki National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences > > Siwicki recently became the executive vice president of the Chicago > chapter of the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences -- the folks > who hand out the Grammys, as well as campaigners for artist's rights. She > is optimistic that changes in technology will bring a new emphasis to the > music side of the music business. > > "As things get more electronic, the industry is going to have to come > up with much more creative ways to market a product besides cover art and > liner notes," she said. "And maybe the image of the artist won't be as > important as the music itself. If a song is floating around on iTunes, > you're not necessarily looking at the person, you're looking for music. If > there isn't a focus on the image, then maybe people will focus on the > craft." > > Bettina Richards Thrill Jockey Records > > As the founder and owner of Thrill Jockey, one of the most respected > U.S. independent labels (and home to Tortoise, Eleventh Dream Day and many > other underground favorites), Richards sees digital downloading as only a > small part of her own label's future -- perhaps 20 percent of the business > in the next few years. > > "Most of our artists, who maybe two or three years ago were opposed to > their music being distributed in that manner, have changed their minds," > Richards said. "It's not their preferred format, but they'd rather that > kids pay for it than get it for free. But for those who still prefer to buy > the hard copy, we are really trying to make our CDs have something extra > that you cannot get from a download -- extensive information in a booklet, > a CD-ROM or DVD component, coupons for contests -- an extra reward." > > Jim Powers Minty Fresh Records > > A former major-label executive who founded his own record company (and > brought us Veruca Salt and the Cardigans, among others), Powers disagrees > with Richards -- he's convinced that CDs will be almost extinct within the > next five years. > > "It's going to be a plastic-free future," he said. "In the same way as > you still have vinyl aficionados, some people will still buy CDs, but it > won't be the core source of income in the music industry. It's rocketing > forward at a much faster pace than I think anyone realizes; I'm certain > that 90 percent of the music Minty Fresh sells will be via downloading." > > Rob Miller Bloodshot Records > > The co-owner of Bloodshot, another of Chicago's best-known independent > labels, Miller is pessimistic about the plight of indie labels like his > own, largely because of the challenges that face small retailers. > > "The bloodletting at the independent retail level is just amazing," he > said. "And I think this bloodbath will make a lot of artists who are making > a marginal living off their music, selling 3,000 to 5,000 records, just get > frustrated and break up. There is just too much damn music out there, and I > think there is going to be a bit of a contraction in the next few years." > > Mike Felten Record Emporium > > As the model for selling music online evolves, Felten hopes that small > retail operations such as his store in the Lake View neighborhood will be > able to grab some portion of the downloading business. But he also sees > mom-and-pop record stores as centers for the musical community as much as > businesses. > > "I've likened going out and buying music to going out and buying a > beer," he said. "You can buy a six-pack of Busch and go home for a lot > cheaper than going to a bar and getting a microbrew for six bucks, but you > don't have that social interaction. We have to make record stores more > destination-oriented. That's why we're doing more in-store performances; > people just don't want to sit home in front of their computer for the rest > of their lives." > > John Laurie Planet of Sound > > The owner of Laurie's Planet of Sound record store in Lincoln Square > believes the electronic fad will eventually pass. "I think there's going to > be a lot of broken MP3 players," he said, laughing. And he's confident that > he will still be in business in five years. > > "I'm really not kidding myself, because when we first opened, people > told me I was insane to do it, and that was eight or nine years ago," > Laurie said. "No doubt online sales are a part of the business now, but > they're not everything. I just know the problem with downloading MP3s, and > the sound quality is still so poor. > > "I don't believe there will be fewer mom-and-pop stores in the future > -- it doesn't seem to go away, and I haven't been proven wrong yet. People > like coming in here." > > Paul Harrington George's Music Room > > The manager of the South Side's biggest independent record store is > also optimistic about the future of record retailers. > > "I think the bottom line is, five years down the line, it's going to > come full circle: People are going to want to come out and go to the record > shop," he said. "Downloading music is so impersonal. Look at a barbershop: > Even if they had a way to do your hair differently, at home, people would > miss the conversations in the barbershop, and sooner or later, it would > have to come full circle. > > "Where I work, people just crowd in here to talk about new music -- > who's coming out with what, did you hear what 50 Cent said about Ja Rule, > you know what I am saying? And even though you can get that information off > of the Internet, people still love talking to other people." > > Scott Gelman Clear Channel Entertainment > > Gelman, the local vice president of booking for concert giant Clear > Channel Entertainment, believes that live music promoters need to "rekindle > or reinvent the passion" for concertgoers to survive. > > "I'm talking to my 13-year-old nephew and my 10-year-old son, trying to > figure out what motivates them," he said. "They have so many alternatives > today -- 150 TV stations, 300 different video games -- that they are doing > things totally differently from what we did." > > To draw new music lovers, Gelman believes that the industry has to > explore extra incentives such as offering live CDs of concerts on site -- > and it has to lower ticket prices. "We have to get the ticket prices on the > lawn down to 12 or 15 bucks; second, we have to create a party atmosphere, > and third, we have to make these bands accessible to all different age > groups, not just the adults who can afford 50 bucks a ticket." > > Andy Cirzan Jam Productions > > Cirzan, a senior talent buyer for Clear Channel rivals Jam Productions, > believes that nothing will ever replace the live concert experience. > > "The one thing I can say is there has not been a reasonable alternative > for how people can enjoy live experience," he said. "When Webcasting first > came up, people were saying, 'Here we go, we're just going to watch > concerts on TV.' It never happened, and anyone who's watched a Webcast can > tell you, it is just a grueling experience. So we're lucky in the live end > of the music industry that there's been nothing coming along that can > replace that experience." > > "But I do see a complete and utter reinvention in the major-label > system. The amount of money invested in an artist is going to go down > dramatically. The amount of staff involved in working projects is going to > go down dramatically. The methods used and the moneys invested in promoting > product is going to go down dramatically. Everything's got to go down, and > the business has to completely reinvent itself." > > Angie Mead Gunther Murphys, Abbey Pub > > As a talent booker for two of Chicago's best rock clubs, Mead is > cautiously optimistic about the future of smaller venues for live music. > > "The city makes it really hard to obtain the right permits and > everything, but I hope that we are still going to be here," she said. > "There are so many bands out there that aren't big enough to play > 2,000-seat rooms, but there are enough bands out there that can play rooms > our size. We definitely see ourselves as staying in the community and being > a big part of Chicago. People like going out and hearing music. It's one > thing sitting at your computer downloading MP3s, but you need to go out and > see a band live and support them live." > > Joe Shanahan Metro, Double Door > > The owner of longtime North Side music venue Metro and co-owner of > Wicker Park's Double Door nightclub believes that small and mid-sized > venues need to get smarter -- and fast -- about offering concertgoers more > than just the entertainment onstage. > > "We have to convince people that the live experience offers something > to get them out from behind their computers and TV screens, and that going > to that show is something special," Shanahan said. He is enthusiastic about > programs such as the new "See a Show, Buy a Show" feature at Metro and > Double Door (as well as at Schubas), where the venue, in partnership with a > company called eMusic.com and participating artists, can offer concertgoers > the chance to buy a CD of the show they just saw on their way out the door. > > Bruce Finkelman The Empty Bottle > > The owner of Chicago's prestigious Empty Bottle rock club also believes > CDs will soon be extinct. "Everything will be done online," he said. "And > sooner or later, bands may even stop putting out recorded stuff." > > In the live music world, Finkelman sees trouble for small clubs. "I > think it may soon be all government-funded clubs and venues, like in > Europe," he said. "The small entrepreneur will be done. I hope I'll still > be in business in five years, but ask the city [referring to restrictive > licensing procedures] if they think I'll be in business. I mean, what I > think and what it is looking like are two very different things. I think > [the city] will lower the amount of places that will be allowed to have > live music." > > Michael Yerke House of Blues > > The head talent buyer for Chicago's House of Blues maintains that the > live music scene is stronger today than ever. "We don't do arena shows, and > there is a lot more risk at the arena level, but at our level, it's > thriving," Yerke said. > > "People are spending more and more time with video games and on the > Internet, but you can't match that concert experience unless you are there. > There is no way to duplicate being at a live show. No matter what you have > on your computer or DVD, it's not the same, so I am optimistic about live > music up to the theater [size] level." > > Todd Cavanah B96 > > Cavanah, the program director of WBBM-FM (96.3), is another believer in > the inevitability of the CD's extinction. > > "I predict that in five years, the majority of music buyers will > receive their purchases digitally," he said. "As a matter of fact, at B-96, > we already receive most of the songs we play in MP3 form. CDs are an > afterthought these days; it's much easier and more practical to listen to > an MP3 that we receive from an artist or management company and send it to > the studio to air." > > Shawn Campbell WLUW-FM > > The program director for the lauded community radio station WLUW-FM > (88.7) is optimistic that CDs won't disappear entirely. "I think it is > going to take a generation," Campbell said. "I don't think that five years > down the road, people who are accustomed to buying music in traditional > forms and have done so their entire adult life -- people my age, in their > 30s and above -- I'm not sure they are going to make that transition > [exclusively to digital]. I do think, unfortunately, a lot of small, > independent record stores are going to continue to go under, and buying > music is definitely going online." > > As for the radio scene, Campbell believes that stations like WLUW are > the future. "I think that we here on the left side of the dial [dominated > by nonprofit and college stations] will continue to grow, while commercial > radio shrinks. Once again, people are looking for more alternatives, more > things outside the mainstream. You hear complaints about mainstream radio > that it is the same thing over and over again -- it's pre-fab, not > authentic stuff. So I think that college radio, public radio and community > radio will thrive." > > Bill Gamble The Zone > > The program director of WZZN-FM (94.7) believes digital delivery will > be the future for all radio stations. "And there will be a point in the > not-too-distant future when you will be listening to a song on the radio in > your car, and you will have the ability to push a button, and someone like > Amazon and Yahoo will get it to your house the next day," he said. > "Eventually, though, it will be all digital: Everyone will be walking > around with 10,000 songs on their iPod." > > In the radio world, Gamble thinks that the current crackdown on > corporate broadcasters will mean a shift to subscriber or satellite > broadcast for adult fare like Howard Stern, but that stations like the Zone > will live on. > > "As far as the music side, I think radio's power will continue to be > there: It is still the credibility stamp and the shared cultural > experience," he said. "If you walk around with 10,000 songs on your iPod, > that is great, but then when you hear one of your songs on the radio, you > go, 'Oh, wait, I have good taste and other people like what I do!' The > majority of people like to know that they like what everybody else likes." > > Norm Winer WXRT-FM > > "Consumers will just walk into a room in their house and download > movies, songs, albums and entire artists' catalogs and add them immediately > to their personal digital libraries, all of which will fit into their > pocket," said the veteran program director at WXRT-FM (93.1). But he > believes there will still be a place for radio as we know it now in the > high-tech future. > > "I don't think people will just be limited to radio for their listening > choices; there will be more specialized choices for every genre, for every > vintage of music. But good radio will survive in places where there is > respect for, and responsiveness to the audience, where there is a > relationship to the community, where there is sufficient talent and > relevance and artistry, so the station is providing a unique service. If it > is generic, I don't think people want it -- they can get that from > satellite. Localization is the main advantage of good radio." > > Patty Martin The Drive > > The program director of WDRV-FM (97.1) believes the FCC crackdown on > commercial radio will be a boon to satellite broadcasters. "Terrestrial > radio is going to have to adjust," she said. "But stations like ours have > nothing to worry about, and the attraction is still the localism. You can't > find [DJ] Bob Stroud, who you've been listening to and loving for years, on > satellite radio. And that is going to make DJs more important. > > "Anyone can throw these records together, but you don't have the > particular personalities on satellite, or things like traffic and weather > -- just being in tune with what is going on locally is going to give us the > edge. I don't think terrestrial radio is ever going to go away, just like > local television stations aren't going to go away, and it faced the same > thing with cable." > > Elroy Smith WGCI-FM > > The music industry needs to reprioritize, insists the program director > of WGCI-FM (107.5). "I really would like to see the music industry get back > to pure music -- artists like Alicia Keys," Smith said. "And radio as we > know it will continue as long as it remembers to serve the community. > > "We need to learn more than just radio. The corporate consolidation > will probably continue, and new kids are not coming into radio, but I think > it will continue to be strong. You have more competition, so your product > needs to be good -- there's more competition from satellite and the Net, > and anybody can play a 'Slow Jamz' by Kanye [West], so the personalities > make a difference in terms of branding a radio station. We have to stay out > there -- sponsoring concerts and being a part of the community -- because > if we're just a jukebox, you know we're going to die." > > Pop music critic Jim DeRogatis co-hosts "Sound Opinions," the world's > only rock 'n' roll talk show, from 10 p.m. to midnight Tuesdays on WXRT-FM > (93.1). E-mail him at [EMAIL PROTECTED] or visit him on the Web at > www.jimdero.com. > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > PC-Audio List Help, Guidelines, Archives and more... > http://www.pc-audio.org > > To unsubscribe from this list, send a blank email to: > [EMAIL PROTECTED] _______________________________________________ PC-Audio List Help, Guidelines, Archives and more... http://www.pc-audio.org To unsubscribe from this list, send a blank email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
