[EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
>The only 100% successful ebay bidding strategy requires deep, deep pockets,
>deeper than anyone else's, and submission of a bid far beyond the likely
>price. And only one person can play this game at a time.
Absolutely true. Of course, most people aren't interested in a
100% successful eBay bidding strategy except in very rare cases.
Personally, I'm much more interested in a 50-90% successful
strategy that delivers lower prices.
In a perfect world, everyone would simply decide the absolute
maximum they're willing to pay and bid that amount right from
the start. But that's not the way it works in real life. Some
people bid early and when they get outbid think "Well, I guess
I'm willing to go a *little* higher than that". If you're
bidding in an auction against one of these people (let's call
them "auction geeks"), you need to wait until the last minute to
bid or else he/she will just increment the maximum bid in steps
and raise the final price you end up paying.
For example; There's a lens which Auction Geek is winning at
$50.00 with his proxy bid at $51.00. You bid $70.00 and you're
in front (at $52.00). Then Auction Geek sees this, reconsiders
and enters a proxy bid of $75.00, getting in front (with a price
of $71.00).
At this point you have two options: You can become an Auction
Geek yourself and up your bid to at least $76.00 (although you
don't know the *precise* amount) or you can pass on this item.
If you'd waited until the last 30 seconds to bid, you'd have won
the auction with no fuss and got the lens for $52.00. (Unless
someone else entered a last-minute bid higher than yours: this
isn't a "100% successful" strategy, remember? Your proxy bid
should be high enough that you don't *mind* someone winning it
for a little bit more).
Yes, in cases in which one bidder *really* wants an item, that
bidder *is* going to get it, but the majority of auctions don't
have *any* bidder who's that fully committed (ever get
passionate about an SMC-M 50/f2.0?). And they often have one or
more Auction Geeks edging the price up.
So for most auctions, the best strategy (ie., the best
*compromise* between maximum chances of winning and minimum
price) is to decide up front what's really, really, really the
most you're willing to pay for an item and then bid that amount
at the very last moment.
If you think you'll never see this item for sale again and don't
want to miss it, you need to go back to the "100% successful
bidding strategy".
If you can't bear the thought of a lost Internet connection
costing you the win, you need to go back to the "100% successful
bidding strategy".
Someday, when I'm rich, I'm going to use the "100% successful
bidding strategy" on one of those mint black MXs that appear
every once in a while. But in the meantime, for the "K1000 for
parts or repair" kind of thing that I buy, I'll do the last
minute snipe, getting a bargain when I win and not worrying when
I lose.
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