Rob,
I don't think you can be sure what will happen when the D645 emerges. There are all sorts of reasons, generally to do with cost and convenience, why people don't use MF as much as 35mm (and now, D-APS).
I had a Bronica ETRS for a while, but the problems of getting film developed and printed (slides being too big for normal projectors) meant I didn't use it much.
But these problems don't apply with digital. If the 645 does come out with a price tag of �6,000, then many people might be tempted to buy one in addition to (and possibly even instead of) a D-APS.
I'm not holding my breath for this camera, but if it does appear within say 18 months, and if the price is lowish, then it might be a much bigger success than its film predecessor. Only time will tell.
John
On Fri, 25 Mar 2005 14:06:16 +1000, Rob Studdert <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
On 24 Mar 2005 at 21:23, Paul Stenquist wrote:
In truth, I had the same thought as John. some of the 645 lenses are relatively inexpensive right now. I expect there will be some price rise. Twenty percent isn't at all unrealistic. And if you can make twenty percent on your money in a year or so, you're doing quite well.
I don't think anyone can realistically expect anything like what appears to
have happened in the 35mm market due to a not yet realized camera which will
have a far far smaller market penetration than the 645 film cameras ever did.
My expectation is that even if the 645 DSLR does eventually appear there will
remain an abundance of used lenses and at best you may see prices rise a
little. However even a 50% rise wouldn't offset the sales fees, shipping costs
or time and effort expended to purchase and then re-sell the items at these
prices.
I can confidently say that two years ago I sold my last 645 kit for least 300%
more cash than I could achieve for the same gear today. Plus as a bonus the $US
to $AU exchange rate was in my favour as a seller.
Rob Studdert HURSTVILLE AUSTRALIA Tel +61-2-9554-4110 UTC(GMT) +10 Hours [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://members.ozemail.com.au/~distudio/publications/ Pentax user since 1986, PDMLer since 1998
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