David Savage <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> On Dec 31, 2007 10:39 AM, David J Brooks <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > I'm a day early, but, looks like the planet has made another orbit
> > around the sun, and we still have not blown it up, yet.:-)
>
> I sure hope you haven't jinxed the planet Dave. There is still a few
> hours to go.

I'm not worried.  Given the amount of inertia involved, even if 
something big enough to reverse Earth's course or knock it out 
of its orbit (I'm counting knocking us into a perpendicular orbit
as a case of "not completing this orbit", as well as events that
send us hurtling into the sun or out of the solar system -- but
if we just get bumped into a nearer or farther orbit in the
ecliptic then I'll only consider that a change of schedule) ..
given the amount of momentum involved, I have no worries that
the planet could be accelerated quickly enough to prevent 
completion of our current orbit on or close to schedule.  :-)


(But for folks who _like_ to worry, may I suggest Exit Mundi, a
collection of realistic end-of-the-world scenarios?
<http://www.exitmundi.nl/exitmundi.htm>)


Even the known methods for _destroying_ the Earth, rather than just 
redirecting it so that it fails to complete its current orbit, take 
more than 24 hours, so David hasn't jinxed us even if a very resourceful 
arch-villain is working on it.  See:  How To Destroy The Earth 
<http://qntm.org/?destroy>  "The Earth is built to _last_. It is a 
4,550,000,000-year-old, 5,973,600,000,000,000,000,000-tonne ball of iron. 
It has taken more devastating asteroid hits in its lifetime than you've 
had hot dinners, and lo, it still orbits merrily. So my first piece of 
advice to you, dear would-be Earth-destroyer, is: do NOT think this will 
be easy."

(This, of course, is a good time to suggest reading Why Destroy The
Earth <http://qntm.org/?why> as well, which includes arguments for
why _not_ to.)


So my prediction is that despite Mr. Brooks' _admittedly_ premature
congratulations, the completion of the current orbit is still a safe
bet.  

Whether he's jinxed the _next_ orbit remains to be seen, but fortunately
most known methods of blowing it up will take more than a year to set up ...


                                                -- Glenn

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