Been giving the "who won" question a little thought, and I think "North
America" has to be the net winner. Not so much for who won or lost which
battles, but for the ultimate outcome; what happened in the 200 years
that followed.
Canada doesn't really figure into it. There was no Canada, just a bunch
of individual British North American territories that would someday
become Canada. At the time the war was fought, Canada was still 55 years
into the future.
Had the British "won" in 1812, I think it unlikely Canada would have
ever come into being.
In terms of combat along the future U.S.-Canadian border, it was
essentially a draw. The British North American invasion of the United
States was eventually repulsed. The U.S. invasion of British North
America was repulsed.
The signal U.S. victory on this front that shapes the future development
of "America" is the Battle of Lake Erie. The U.S. secured for itself
free access to navigation on the Great Lakes, and eventually to and from
the Great Lakes along the St. Lawrence.
The War of 1812 marked the failure of British schemes to limit expansion
of the U.S. beyond the Appalachian mountains. Even 9 years after the
Louisiana Purchase the British still believed they could thwart the
expansion of the nation that grew from their former colonies along the
Atlantic Coast of North America.
As a result of the War of 1812, Britain was forced to withdraw from
territories south of the Great Lakes, leaving the U.S. with unimpeded
access to the lands of the Louisiana Purchase ... and beyond.
Had the British "won" the War of 1812, the western boundaries of the
U.S. would likely be truncated at the Mississippi & Ohio rivers.
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