Manning Squeeze On Horizon Again
Whatever savings have been made in ship-operating costs will likely be wiped
out in the coming years especially on the crewing front.
A shortage of crews could soon haunt the shipping industry again given the huge
number of newbuildings being delivered, says a new study of vessel-operating
costs.
It will put considerable pressure again on manning expenses, particularly for
senior officers, as a supply-side shortage develops from 2011.
Drewry Shipping Consultants says 673 vessels were delivered into the
international fleet in the first six months of 2010 that need crews.
Soaring wage levels flattened off in late 2008 and 2009 as global economic
growth stalled. But as the world economy picks up a manning supply/demand
imbalance will drive wages up.
Drewry says headline operating costs fell in 2009 by an average of 1.5% but
this year they are up 1.7% to 2%.
According to managing editor Paula Puszet, last year saw a retrenchment in the
costs of running fleets but signs point to an upsurge in 2010/2011.
"The key message [is] that if owners and managers do not have contracts,
particularly for items such as fuel and lubes, and repairs and maintenance,
they could find their budgets blown to the four winds," said Drewry.
The report focusses especially on manning, insurance including
protection-and-indemnity (P&I) cover, repairs and maintenance, stores and
lubes, plus management and administration, with projections of how each area
will perform up to 2014.
Owners have reduced maintenance schedules as far as they dare, says Drewry, but
the rising cost of raw materials, including coatings, which are heavily
dependent on oil-price movements, is forcing up costs.
The report warns owners that minimum maintenance is not a sustainable policy,
including the insurance implications. It says owners are increasingly only
authorising touch-up work.
Business is down and there has been talk of some suppliers getting out of the
sector. Less competition could lead to higher costs, says the report.
Also, more ships in the fleet will increase the demand for repair facilities.
Although new repair-yard capacity should be coming on stream in China,
Singapore and the Middle East Gulf (see pages 2 and 8), some 1,631 vessels
reach their fifth and 10th anniversaries this year.
Lube oils are a major concern because of looming supply problems, adds Drewry.
"The world fleet continues to expand but the production of lubes, particularly
special lubes, has not kept pace," it said.
Also, there are only three major additives producers still active.
The report expects management and administrative costs to rise at a pace not
witnessed for some time once global trade and the shipping markets rebound.
New systems and new technologies are among capital projects that have been put
on hold but they cannot be postponed indefinitely, says Drewry.
Also, increasing compliance and environmental issues carry with them cost
implications.
On the insurance front, shipowners' premiums should have fallen in line with
lower vessel values.
But for the insurers themselves it has exacerbated underlying issues, including
an increase in incidental claims as operators pay more attention to their
insurance costs. Hull rates could rise until 2014/2015.
The report provides extensive tables of total operating costs for ship types
and sizes that indicate, for example, that the daily figure for a VLCC could
rise from $12,777 in 2010 to $14,558 by 2014.
Posted on Friday, August 27, 2010 (Archive on Friday, September 03, 2010) fm
Intermanager
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