Security Forecast
As 2013 rumbles along what are seen as being the key maritime security threats
for the year? While the frequency of pirate attacks off Somalia has dropped, if
they learn to adapt there will be surprises ahead and given that they are
billed as being some of the most wily, cunning foes around, the chances are
high that they will be breaking through the thin blue line of private security
soon.
According to the latest analysis to emerge, the likely threats to maritime
security are issues in the following problem areas:
Nigeria: An increase in Gulf of Guinea piracy is understood to be likely in the
next three months. With an increase in the capabilities of pirate groups off
the Gulf of Guinea and limited security in the West African seas, piracy risks
are likely to grow. Due to the very limited capabilities of regional navies
including the major player, the Nigerian Navy, and, unlike the seas off
Somalia, the lack of an international maritime presence, tankers are vulnerable
to oil theft.
Somali piracy in 2013: The multi-million dollar question is what will happen
next. Some want to believe the threat of Somali pirates has subsided, but the
root causes remain. While some high profile pirates may have decided to
renounce piracy, there are many more waiting to step into their Swarovski
encrusted flip flops. The money is still good, and Somalia is still a place
where alternatives are hard to find. The rise of Somali piracy 2.0 looks
distinctly possible.
South East Asia: There has been a steady rise in the number of attacks around
South East Asia. Piracy in the region is a serious problem, and while it was
eclipsed for a while by the new Somali iteration, it is firmly back on the
maritime security radar and is likely to pose further problems into 2013.
New potential problem areas are emerging as North Africa and Syria throw up
potentially serious threats to maritime trade. Lawlessness, desperation and
instability are the key drivers of maritime crime, and so it will be
interesting to see how these threats eventually manifest themselves.
Modern maritime piracy has always been considered a "tropical disease", as it
is 99.9% confined between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. The potential
shift northwards, however, could see a fascinating new tide of maritime
criminality
be careful out there, wherever "there" may be.
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