BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, APRIL 27, 2000
RELEASED TODAY: The Employment Cost Index for March 2000 was 146.5 (June
1989=100), not seasonally adjusted, an increase of 4.3 percent from March
1999. ... This compares with over-the-year increases of 3.0 percent in
March 1999 and 3.3 percent in March 1998. ... On a seasonally adjusted
basis, the 3-month increase in compensation costs for civilian workers was
1.4 percent during the December 1999-March 2000 period, following a gain of
1.0 percent in September-December 1999. ...
Booming U.S. economic grow has scarcely slowed this year, while American
workers' pay and benefits are rising strongly, according to analysts'
forecasts of government figures to be released today. But neither
development is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to move more
aggressively to brake U.S. economic growth, because there is little evidence
of a takeoff in inflation, and most economists, including many Fed
officials, expect to see some slowing later this year. The Commerce
Department is expected to report today that the economy grew at more than a
6 percent rate -- perhaps even as much as a 7 percent rate -- in the first 3
months of the year. If those analysts' forecasts prove correct, growth
slowed only slightly from the sizzling 7.3 percent pace of the fourth
quarter of 1999. Meanwhile, the Labor Department will release its March
employment cost index, which is expected to show that workers' pay and
benefits have risen faster than consumer prices over the past 12 months.
Many analysts expect the ECI, the nation's most comprehensive measure of
changes in employers' labor costs, to show that workers' compensation rose
3.9 percent over that period, the largest such change in 8 years and
slightly more than the 3.7 percent rise in consumer prices. ... (John Berry
in Washington Post, page E1).
Orders for durable goods rose in March after 2 months of decline, providing
fresh evidence of a hot economy. Orders for durable goods -- items expected
to last at least 3 years -- rose a bigger-than-expected 2.6 percent last
month, led by heavy demands for electronic products. ... (Washington Post,
page E16)_____Orders for big-ticket durable goods bounced back in March.
The number was helped by a substantial rebound in transportation orders
after Boeing reached a contract agreement with 17,000 striking engineers.
Orders for durable goods like appliances, vehicles, and aircraft jumped 2.6
percent in March, compared with a revised decline of 2 percent in February
and a 1.9 percent decline in January, the Commerce Department reported. The
report, showing growing capital spending by businesses, is the latest
indication that the economy continues to enjoy robust growth. ... (New York
Times, page C26)_____The increase was "more than expected, but it's not
inflationary," said an economist at Paine-Webber of New York. Nevertheless,
the new numbers are unlikely to calm fears at the Federal Reserve that the
economy is barely easing from a blistering 7.3 percent growth rate at the
end of 1999. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2).
Children smart enough to get into elite schools may not need to bother,
writes Alan B. Krueger, professor of economics at Princeton and one of four
rotating contributors to "Economic Scene" (New York Times, page C2). ...
The average 1995 earnings of workers who were college freshmen in 1976 were
$22,000 more for those from highly selective schools than for those from
moderately selective schools. But, except for students from low-income
families, those accepted at both types of colleges had similar earnings no
matter which they attended. The data are calculated from the College and
Beyond Survey, collected by the Mellon Foundation. ... The problem is known
as selection bias. More selective schools accept students with greater
earnings potential, and students with greater earnings potential are more
likely to apply to more selective schools. ... A good student can get a
good education almost anywhere. Second, about a third of college graduates
earn higher degrees, whose prestige is often more relevant to professional
or business success than undergraduate degrees. Third, a student who goes
to Penn State instead of the University of Pennsylvania is more likely to
end up near the top of the class. Employers and graduate schools may not
adequately adjust for the competition. ...
DUE OUT TOMORROW: International Comparisons of Manufacturing Productivity
and Unit Labor Cost Trends, Revised Data for 1998
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