Perhaps add to this list a new book out called "The Great Wave: Price
Revolutions and the Thythm of History" by David Hackett Fischer,
Oxford, 1996.
Jim Craven
> Date sent: Sun, 12 Jan 1997 14:55:14 -0800 (PST)
> Send reply to: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> From: "Rosser Jr, John Barkley" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Subject: [PEN-L:8194] long waves references
> [long]
> It occurs to me that we had this discussion of long
> waves on this list before, but what the heck. Anyway, let
> me put this in broader perspective with some history of the
> debate and some references. I shall leave it to Paul
> Phillips to provide good ones from David Gordon on the SSA
> approach and from Robert Boyer (or whomever) on the French
> regulationist approach.
> I note that the original literature was in Dutch and
> German and that the theory remains most popular in those
> countries, along with Russia, where there has been a
> revival of interest since the Kondratiev centennial in 1991
> with a lot of new literature in Russian coming out over
> there (a few in English: Leonid Abalkin, "Scientific
> Heritage of N. Kondratiev and contemporaneity: The Report
> to the International Scientific Conference devoted to the
> 100th birth anniversary of N. Kondratiev," Institute of
> Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 1992, and Yuri V
> Yakovets, "Civilization cycles and the model of
> reproduction structure dynamics," The Academy of National
> Economy under the Government of the Russian Federation,
> 1992). Kondratiev's original paper in 1926 was in German,
> but a shorter version was published in English a number of
> years later, thereby giving him "credit" in English
> language sources and discussions as their discoverer.
> However, the first paper on long waves, which used
> much of the data later used by Kondratiev and many of his
> arguments as well, was in Dutch by J. van Gelderen,
> "Springvloed: Beschouwingen over industrieele ontwikkeling
> en prijsbeweging," _De Neuwe Tijd_, 1913, 18, nos. 4-6.
> This paper, which focused more on price data, as did
> Kondratiev's (which as Jim Devine has noted shows long wave
> effects more clearly than does output data), has just been
> translated into English by Bart Varspagen as "Springflood,"
> and appears as the first paper in the newly released Edward
> Elgar volume of readings on Long Waves, edited by Alfred
> Steinherr. Neither van Gelderen nor Kondratiev was
> definitive about the mechanism, and both threw out elements
> of what show up in several later theories as possibilities.
> The Dutch have continued to be the biggest fans,
> including with papers regularly appearing in _De
> Economist_, (Jay Forrester, "Growth Cycles," _De
> Economist_, 1977, 125, 525-543 and K.B.T. Thio, "On
> Simultaneous Explanation of Long and Medium-Term Employment
> Cycles," _De Economist_, 1991, 139, 331-357) as well as the
> book by J.J. van Duijn, _De Lange Golf in de Economie_,
> 1979, Assen: Van Gorcum (translated into English several
> years later as _The Long Wave in Economic Life_).
> After falling out of favor for some time, the theory
> picked up adherents in the 1970s with the apparently long
> wave slowdown occurring then, which still looks like a very
> serious explanation, with the previous "Golden Age" being
> the upswing after the Great Depression downswing. In
> German this was symbolized by Gerhard Mensch's _Das
> Techologishe Patt_, Frankfurt am Main: Umschau Verlag,
> which was translated several years later into English as
> _The Stalemate in Technology_.
> As has been already mentioned, probably the most
> widely discussed theory has been the technological
> clustering/wave theory, which had a strong early statement
> by Schumpeter in his 1939 _Business Cycles_. Others
> supporting variations on this include Mensch, Richard M.
> Goodwin, "The Economy as an Evolutionary Pulsator,"
> _Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization_, 1986, 7,
> 341-349, and Andrew Tylecote, ""History as a Forecasting
> Tool: The Future of the European Economy in a
> Long-Wave/Long-Cycle Perspective," _Review of Political
> Economy_, 1992, 4, 226-248. A technical way of analyzing
> "technique clusters" can be found in Chapter 8 of my 1991
> _From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economic
> Discontinuities_, Boston: Kluwer, which draws heavily on
> Richard H. Day and Jean-Luc Walter, "Economic Growth in the
> Very Long Run: The Multiple Phase Interaction of
> Population, Technology, and Social Infrastructure," in
> William A. Barnett, John Geweke, and Karl Shell, eds.,
> _Economic Complexity: Chaos, Sunspots, Bubbles, and
> Nonlinearity_, 1989, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,
> 253-290, although it must be noted that Day and Walter are
> more concerned with the much longer wave (300 years) theory
> of "la duree" due to Fernand Braudel, which if I get into
> further here, Doug Henwood will decide that I have been
> trying to recall in contemplation altogether too many
> Wordsworth poems, :-).
> Other theories of long waves include a "capital
> self-ordering" model due to Frisch (1933) but first put in
> a long wave context in the 1977 paper above by Forrester
> and more recently in work by John D. Sterman, e.g. "A
> Behavioral Model of the Economic Long Wave," _Journal of
> Economic Behavior and Organization_, 1985, 6, 17-53 and
> more recently, Sterman and Erik Mosekilde, "Business Cycles
> and Long Waves: A Behavioral Disequilibrium Perspective,"
> in Willi Semmler, ed., _Business Cycles: Theory and
> Empirical Methods_, 1994, Boston: Kluwer, 13-52.
> Another is a class struggle theory, Leon Trotsky, "The
> Curve of Capitalist Development," originally 1923, in
> _Problems of Everyday Life_, 1973, New York: Monad Press,
> 273-280, and Ernest Mandel, _Long Waves of Capitalist
> Development_, 1980, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
> Another, not unrelated to the above, is a "labor
> shortage" theory, which is also tied to the
> technological wave theory, see Thio above, 1991, and C.
> Freeman, J. Clarke, and L. Soete, _Unemployment and
> Innovation: A Study of Long Waves and Economic
> Development_, London: Frances Pinter. Freeman is also the
> editor of the useful and broad, _Long Waves in the World
> Economy_, 1984, London: Frances Pinter.
> Another theory emphasizes raw materials shortages
> cycles, with Walt W. Rostow, "Kondratieff, Schumpeter, and
> Kuznets: Trend Periods Revisited," _Journal of Economic
> History_, 1975, 25, 719-753, and George F. Ray, "Energy and
> the Long Cycles," _Energy Economics_, 1983, 5, 3-8.
> There are also works that emphasize political and
> cultural factors, such as Yakovets above and Joshua S.
> Goldstein, _Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern
> Age_, 1988, New Haven: Yale University Press, and J. Zvi
> Namenwirth, "Wheels of Time and the interdependence of
> value change in America," _Journal of Interdisciplinary
> History_, 1973, 3, 649-683.
> Yet another good general review can be found in J.
> Reinders, _Long Waves in Economic Development_, 1990,
> Aldershot: Edward Elgar. Oh yes, the latest Edward Elgar
> volume on long waves is fresh out. Happy hunting everybody!
> Barkley Rosser
> --
> Rosser Jr, John Barkley
> [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
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