Michael Perelman wrote:

>I have not read Schmidt's report, but it does not surprise me.  During
>the 60's, when unemployment was low, workers often took a cavalier
>attitude toward their work.  As unemployment became a more serious
>threat, workers became more "grateful" for their job.  What is the
>relationship between muted hostility and insecurity?

Well I have read Schmidt's paper. It's labeled "very preliminary," with the
usual warnings not to quote or cite, so I'll hold back on quoting the
analysis and conclusions. But the public opinion data - from the General
Social Survey and Gallup - does indeed show no rise in reported worker
anxiety about job loss. The shares of employed workers who said their jobs
were at risk in 1996 and 1997 were pretty much the same as in other
late-expansion years, like 1979 and 1989. There are some changes within
demographic groups and relative to the unemployment rate, but nothing like
what you read in the press (or in Alan Greenspan's public testimony).

What's going on? I've written, at no doubt excessive length, that the
cliches about spreading contingency and disappearing employment have no
basis in fact; and now with Schmidt's work, we learn that even reports of
perceptions look to be wrong. Is it that U.S. labor markets have always
been turbulent, and perception has just caught up to that fact? That that
turbulence has spread to previously insulated segments of the labor force
(white male managers/professionals), who are too small a group to affect
the macro numbers much, but who are nonetheless extremely important to
framing public discourse? Inquiring minds want to know!


Doug

--

Doug Henwood
Left Business Observer
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