August 28, 1998 NEWS ANALYSIS Bedfellows In Russia: Old Guard and Moguls By MICHAEL R. GORDON MOSCOW -- In his drive to consolidate his power, Viktor Chernomyrdin has embarked on the first attempt since the fall of the Soviet Union to negotiate a sharing of power between the remains of the Communist Party and the tycoons who arose from the ashes of socialism. Chernomyrdin has sent unmistakable signals that he wants to form a coalition government that embraces tycoons and Communists alike. But the final outcome of that effort to reconcile such opposing forces is by no means clear, and the politics of Chernomyrdin's coalition-building is at odds with the economic crisis in which Russia finds itself. For instance, how can Chernomyrdin be all things to all men and still make the tough decisions that will enable Russia to extract itself from the rapidly escalating economic crisis? "This is one of the most difficult questions for him," observed Boris Nemtsov, a reform-minded former Kremlin aide who was part of the government that was dismissed this week. "One the one hand he has to organize a strong and professional government to avoid big failures and big mistakes," Nemtsov added. "On the other hand, he has to compromise with the Communists." There is no disputing the short-term political logic behind Chernomyrdin's hints about a coalition government -- or as he puts it a "government of accord." Chernomyrdin's appointment as prime minister needs the approval of the Communist-dominated Parliament. To establish himself as a figure of national reconciliation -- and advance his longer-term presidential ambitions -- Chernomyrdin would like to be approved overwhelming by Parliament and on the first vote. That suggests that he is ready to trade government posts for parliamentary votes. President Boris Yeltsin has given Chernomyrdin enormous latitude in forming his government. As the newspaper Izvestia put in a headline early this week, "Yeltsin Yields Power." But it is not just a matter of jobs or confirmation votes. The Communist opposition has made it plain that they are also looking for more left-leaning economic policies. As Gennady Seleznyov, a Communist who is the speaker of Parliament, put it, "if Chernomyrdin recognizes our anti-crisis program and decides to implement it, his appointment will be approved." This is not the first time that Chernomyrdin's allies have flirted with the idea of coalition rule. During the 1996 presidential election campaign, some of Yeltsin's leading financial backers became so fearful that the Communists might win that they issued an open letter calling for an accommodation between the Yeltsin and Gennady Zyuganov, the Communist challenger. Boris Berezovsky, the tycoon who helped mastermind Chernomyrdin's return to power, was among the group. But extricating Russia from its current crisis -- or at least limiting the damage -- will also require decisions that irritate the Communist opposition. Under Chernomyrdin, Russia must control the money supply to fight inflation, husband the government's dwindling resources by limiting subsidies to failing banks, and reassure foreign investors. So far, Chernomyrdin has straddled the fence. He has talked about continuing the march toward a free market. But he has also echoed some of the Communists' favorite slogans. He said, for instance, that he would change "industrial policy, because by purely monetarist measures, we will not pull Russia out of the crisis." That was a sop toward the Communist demands that the Kremlin print more money and use government credits to prop up ailing enterprises. But even as Chernomyrdin was trying to stroke the Communists, he rushed off to the Crimea for a meeting with Michel Camdessus, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund. The IMF has given Russia a small part of the $17 billion rescue bailout that was negotiated in July, and Chernomyrdin wants to make sure that the money keeps flowing. Chernomyrdin was not accompanied by a Communist deputy. He was joined by Boris Fyodorov, the blunt-spoken economic aide who also serves as the nation's chief tax collector. Fyodorov is a staunch advocate of the free market and has told associates that if he were a U.S. citizen, he would be a Republican. Neither the IMF nor average Russians will know exactly where Chernomyrdin stands until he begins to make tough decisions on collecting taxes, cutting the budget deficit and saving the banking system. In the meantime, the appointments to the Chernomyrdin team will give some indication where he is headed. Seeking to take advantage of Chernomyrdin's willingness to compromise, the Communists have demanded at least 10 of the top posts, including those involved in overseeing finance and industry. But the industrial barons who backed Chernomyrdin have their eye on these jobs as well. Pyotr Aven, the head of Alpha Bank, is said to be interested in running the Finance Ministry. And this equation does not take into account Chernomyrdin's own party, Our Home is Russia, which believes that it should dominate the upper rungs of power and is the second biggest party in Parliament after the Communists. There is also a cadre of experienced government aides like Fyodorov. Some of them are close to Chernomyrdin, who has stressed the value of continuity. Before Sergei Kiriyenko was dismissed as prime minister this week, the Yeltsin government was on a collision course with the Communists in Parliament. Forming an alliance might seem a safer course to Chernomyrdin, but coalition politics also has its risks. Summing up Russia's addled political scene, Izvestia noted that Chernomyrdin's attempts to negotiate were encouraging some members of the leftist opposition to harden their demands. "The game between the leftist opposition with the prime minister has become dangerous for the country," it said. Copyright 1998 The New York Times Company Louis Proyect (http://www.panix.com/~lnp3/marxism.html)
