Thanks to Louis for posting the uplifting passage from Harry Shutt. It's embarrassing to agree with Shutt's conclusions based on (seemingly) diametrically opposite premises. But I'll try. Shutt says: "According to such theories economic growth is governed by very long cycles (of fifty years or more), which their advocates claim can explain the ups and downs of the world economy at least since the Industrial Revolution, and that these unfold more or less independently of any 'man-made' events or influences such as world wars, political changes or innovations in technology." Not having read the book, I don't know what precedes Shutt's comment on long cycles but the literature I'm familiar with on long cycles (e.g. Mandel, Schumpeter, Gunder Frank) has sought to explain the apparent phenomenon of long cycles by reference to 'man-made' events. There are propagandists like Rostow who invoke metaphysical long cycles as the ground for expecting a renewed era of high growth. But Rostow's earlier hobby horse was the laughable 'take off' whereby mature economies would be propelled into perpetual growth through the miracle of compound interest. It may well be impossible to give definitive explanations for why past surges in economic growth have occured but it is possible to give plausible explanations (or at least plausible interpretations). It looks to me like there _have been_ long cycles in the past and I think those can be systematically explained by events. I am convinced that a systematic explanation of those past long cycles strongly suggests that there _will not_ be another one. The epistemological problem with long cycles is that the instruments we have to "detect" long cycles have actually been designed to *construct* long cycles by isolating and otherwise massaging the (haphazardly collected) statistical data. Given time series data of infinite variety an investigator could perhaps isolate just about any pattern desired, undoubtedly including a cartload of fractals. Perhaps it would be more revealing to rethink what have been labeled as "cycles" (not just long ones) in terms of fractals. Mandel meets Mandelbrot. Do you know the way to Santa Fe? Regards, Tom Walker ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ #408 1035 Pacific St. Vancouver, B.C. V6E 4G7 [EMAIL PROTECTED] (604) 669-3286 ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ The TimeWork Web: http://www.vcn.bc.ca/timework/
