====> When, on or about last December 18th, the following
report reached me, I put on a convincing I-gave-at-
the-office look and ignored it. Maybe I just wasn't
in the mood for being scared. About 7 weeks later,
while performing one of my periodic deletion derbies,
I took a peek and was compelled to contact the issuer,
Geri Guidetti. She has found no reason to change
anything in the interim; apparently no one has called
her out on any aspect of what she has to say.
You will probably be hip, already, to this and that
herein, but she has connected the dots. What dots!
I have cleaned up the original to conform with the
tender mercies of pen-l's archiving program, which
also better fits it to receive some back-and-forth
without developing line overlap. Note also my
trademark two-space sentence breaks, however
pointless they may be. Remember to subtract
2 months from the few mentions of lead-time.
Geri is a gracious woman; you can say hello.
But don't say No, No unless you can prove it.
valis
Food Supply Update: December, 1998
Y2K Food Supply Prospects Paint Frightening Picture
copyright � 1998, by Geri Guidetti
This and all Updates may be reprinted and distributed
in any media if done so in their entirety, including byline,
Web address and signature file information. They must be
distributed free of charge unless included as part of
a magazine or journal.
It's crunch time. Here comes 1999, and it promises to be
a dilly. Not since the days when guns replaced sharpened
hunting sticks, and grain mills replaced crude, hand-hewn
mortars and pestles, has a year's rollover meant more to
the question of whether or not there will be enough food
for the future. Simply put, what we do - as nations, states,
businesses, families and individuals - in the next twelve
months, may well determine what, when, and if we will eat
in the year 2000 and beyond.
Over the past three years, I have been sounding an alarm that
our food supply is much less safe and secure than any of us
can imagine, largely due to vulnerabilities wrought by the
same technology that has brought us so much food. We've
created a monster, and the monster's about to get sick.
If you come to the same conclusion, it will raise your anxiety
level. Most of us don't need anymore anxiety in our lives,
yet the flip side of that is that it is better to know, when
you might be able to do something about it, than not to know
and be helpless to change the outcome. It is with some
apprehension that I offer some thoughts about the bigger food
supply picture for 1999 and prospects for Y2K.
We will redefine food in the year 2000. It may take a little
while, but that must-have-super-size-fried-double-whopper-with-
bacon-and-cheese-with-cherries-garcia-and-big-gulp-chasers
will be metamorphosed into a grateful-to-have-bowl-of-vegetable-
soup-with-homemade-bread-with-water-chaser.
And remember, if you are not part of the solution, you are part
of the problem.
Despite the calm reassurances and optimistic projections of
elected leaders, appointed agency heads and corporate CEOs,
the ugly truth about our collective, global impotence to purge
our infrastructure of the so-called Millennium Bug is leaking,
seeping, oozing out. The Millennium Bug is the Ebola of our
technology based existence. There is no cure for Ebola, and it
will infect the computer-dependent food supply monster in the
year 2000. Unless we hear and see proof, in the next few months,
that the complex production, processing, distribution and sales
limbs of the beast are fixed - or that effective contingency
plans are in place - increasing public awareness and the resulting
panic will make it sick well before the close of 1999.
Let's look at some prospects for disease prevention. The U.S.
Department of Agriculture (USDA) now has a web site offering
called, "Facts About the Y2K Problem and the Food Supply Sector."
You can find it at http://www.fsis.usda.gov/OM/y2kfact2.htm.
It is here that you will find Secretary of Agriculture
Dan Glickman's public statement on the problem. He observes that
it takes the work of "tens of thousands of people" to produce
a meal for an American family. He then says:
"I must confess, however, that until recently I hadn't thought very
much about the connection between food on our tables and computers.
But, as a new millennium approaches, that link is becoming all too
clear....We are facing the potential of serious disruption because
of this problem...."
Interesting. In July of 1997 I published an Update citing data in
one of the USDA's own reports on the extent of computers in all
aspects of agriculture and posed the questions, at that time,
concerning potential impacts on our food supply. Had Mr. Glickman
even seen that USDA report? Had he thought about its implications
for our nation's food in Y2K? In his current statement, he goes on
to say,
"That's why USDA, along with the rest of the Administration, is hard
at work to make sure our internal systems are Y2K compliant. We are
also working with our partners in state and local governments who
help deliver federal programs to make sure our computers continue to
talk to each other and perform the work they are programmed to do.
Now, through the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion,
the federal government has undertaken a massive outreach effort to
heighten awareness of the Y2K problem.
"The Council has asked USDA, working with the Departments of Defense,
Health and Human Services, State, and the Commodities Futures Trading
Commission, to lead the government's awareness campaign to the food
supply sector."
Let's get this straight. First, Dan Glickman, the head of the federal
agency that oversees food production for the U.S. and much of the rest
of the world, just recently became aware of the connection between
computers and food? Next, the newly formed President's Council on
Year 2000 Conversion has asked the USDA to work with The Departments
of Defense, Health and Human Services, and State to lead the
government's awareness campaign on Y2K to the food industry.
The Department of Defense? On November 23rd, the Department of
Defense was given a D-minus on the House of Representative's quarterly
report card on its Y2K progress on mission critical systems.
Mission CRITICAL systems only. On November 27th, the Defense
Department's own Inspector General accused the Pentagon of falsifying
Y2K compliance reports released by its Special Weapons Agency,
the agency - are you sitting down? - that manages our nuclear weapons
stockpile. (Falsifying reports. Isn't that the same thing as lying?)
The Special Weapons Agency admits that it did, indeed, certify computer
systems as Y2K compliant without completing testing on them, and the
Pentagon admits to having no explanation for its agency's
misrepresentation. In fact, only 25 percent of systems reported by
the Defense Department as being compliant actually were, according to
a report released by the Inspector General in July.
THIS is the department that has been asked to lead,
with USDA, food supply industry awareness.
USDA's second, assigned leader in this "massive outreach effort to
heighten awareness..." is the Department of Health and Human Services,
November 23rd recipient of an F grade on their Y2K report card.
It seems this department, which is responsible for administering
the nation's Medicare program, has only fixed 7 of their 100 mission
critical systems. Given the potentially catastrophic consequences of
a failed Medicare system in 2000, how much of their staff and budget
do you think they will assign to a food supply awareness campaign?
The Department of State, the third assigned leader, is yet another
rated F agency. (If you still have some question about whether we
are in good hands, overall, with our federal agencies, the U.S.
Agency for International Development (USAID) received an F as well.
It seems their recently purchased computer system is not Y2K
compliant. Rep. Stephen Horn said, "They receive the dunce
of the year award.")
Back to Secretary Glickman's official Y2K statement:
"The best way we can do that (lead the government's awareness campaign
to the food supply sector) is by forming a partnership with industry
groups whose members are involved in food production and distribution.
Our goal: to make sure everyone involved in food supply production,
processing, distribution, and sales is aware of their potential Y2K
problems, understands the importance of acting now to check their
systems, and knows where they can go for help."
I do pray that even a quarter of "everyone involved" in food supply
has not waited until now for this leadership in awareness,
understanding, and "checking their systems." If so, the party's over
because there will be no food served.
A MESSAGE TO EVERYONE INVOLVED IN PRODUCTION, PROCESSING, DISTRIBUTION
AND SALES OF FOOD IN THE U.S.: According to several of the nation's
top, most respected senior programmers - the men and women working in
the belly of this sick Y2K beast - it is already too late for
awareness, understanding and checking. It is too late to write a plan
of action. It is too late to expect to find and keep programmers to
repair all of your systems. It is too late. If you are to remain in
business after 1999, if you are to become part of the solution, if you
are to be there for the rebuilding of our infrastructure in the next
century, it is time for contingency planning..
It's not too late for that.
If Americans and, for that matter, the rest of the technology-dependent
world, are not to panic about year 2000 food supplies in 1999, please
answer honestly - and PUBLISH WIDELY - responses to the following:
How are you working now to ensure us that you can deliver the goods
if your mission critical computers collapse? If your suppliers' and
vendors' computers collapse? Farmers--if your tractors don't work?
If the Global Positioning Satellite system some of you use to farm
doesn't get fixed? If you can't get fuel for your farm equipment?
If your combines can't harvest? What seed will you plant in Y2K if
your spring seed shipments don't arrive in February and March 2000?
How will you produce food and seed for 2001 if you miss the year 2000
planting? If the multinational hybrid seed producers can't produce
seed for you? How will you plant if there's no gas or diesel at your
local supplier for your equipment in 2000? If you can't get
fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides? Are you stocking up now?
CAN you stock up given your current financial condition?
Supermarket chains: How are you planning now to stock your stores so
folks can have food on hand to see them through at least a few months
of 2000, if necessary? Are you increasing your stocks now to ensure
that there will be enough? We read that whole cities only have 72
hours of food in their pipelines. That the U.S. only has 3 months
worth within its borders. Have you communicated that to emergency
services and civil defense organizations in your city? What are your
alternatives to just-in-time inventory management? Can you find/build
space for longer term food product storage? How are you planning to
sell food when your check-out scanners fail--if the power goes out
in Y2K? How will you total cash orders: hand-held solar calculators?
Have you bought them?
Food Processors: How are you working to assure us that those canned
beans will be processed long enough to kill botulism bacteria?
Are there manual overrides for your conveyor belts and heat/pressure
canning operations? Have you talked to your suppliers about
alternative methods of getting the beans to put into those cans?
How will you get the huge amounts of water you need to process
food if the municipal water systems go down? If the water is
insufficiently processed and contaminated? Conversely,
if it contains dangerously high levels of chlorine?
Have you thought this through?
Food distribution centers: How will you know which store needs what
if the scanners and computer calculations go haywire in Y2K?
How will you get product to ship if railway shipments are delayed
or non-existent. If some/many/most of your truckers are not able to
deliver product for you? Is there a basic list of products that you
will ship to each and every store if there is no computer
communication between you? Can you do it by telephone?
What if there are no telephones?
Food industry leaders: Have you done the "big picture thinking"
about your industry if a worst case scenario is realized in Y2K?
Are you aware of what a worst case scenario would be like? Have you
done the "dominoes thinking?" What proportion of the industry is
now devoted to production of highly-processed, energy and computer
dependent foods? Have you talked among yourselves about rethinking
food product needs in a national emergency? With rolling blackouts
and intermittent refrigeration? Can a portion of your factories be
retooled to produce foods with high, concentrated nutrition and
a long shelf-life -- no refrigeration needed? Now ?
Enough questions. I encourage readers to share them and your own
food supply questions with anyone involved in food production or
supply in your area; your supermarket manager; your mom and pop
grocer; with emergency preparedness groups; with clergy; your city
council president; your mayor; your state representatives; your boss;
your mother-in-law; whomever. Remember: if we're not part of the
solution, we're part of the problem. The first part of doing
contingency planning will be to raise the volume on the questions we
have and to persistently insist on answers. When we have answers we
think we can trust, we can then make the personal and community
decisions necessary for survival. REAL leadership is obviously not
going to come from the top on this. It's going to come from the
bottom -- grass roots. From you -- all of you.
If the senior programmers are right - if it's too late to fix even
the mission critical systems - then food and water will prove to be
our most critical national concern in mid- to late 1999. Electrical
failures and fuel supply interruptions will make them obsessions
in 2000.
Our entire human food supply is based on plants and plant seeds.
Seed for farmers may be in short supply in 2000. New, hybrid and
non-hybrid seeds produced in 1999 for the year 2000 crop may not reach
all who need it due to transportation and distribution breakdowns.
Those commercial farmers who didn't stock two years worth of
fertilizers, herbicides and pesticides in 1999 may be out of
luck in 2000. Most of these inputs are petrochemical based,
and the refineries and chemical companies may be plagued by their
embedded chip problems. (A horrifying post by a refinery worker
recently claimed that refineries will NOT be functional when the
clock strikes twelve on January 1, 2000. He claims they can't
even find all of the embedded chips to test unless they break down
and rebuild all of the refineries. There's no time for that.
Guess we won't know if refineries and fuels will make it until
January 1st.)
If international and national oil, gas and electricity are not in good
shape, several of the multinational seed and chemical giants will run
into serious Y2K difficulties. This scenario WOULD affect the food
supply for the year 2000 and 2001. Distribution of diesel fuel and
gasoline supplies to run farm machinery may be undependable. Seasonal
planting deadlines would be missed. Seeds or no seeds, many crops
would not get planted, and that would prove deadly for 2001. That year
would be worse than 2000. Those with a cache of non-hybrid seeds and
some land to grow it on should at least be able to eat come summer and
fall. Those who learn how to multiply and save that seed for 2001 and
beyond would no longer be part of the problem, but part of the solution.
They'd be less likely to go hungry.
Unless we get some fast, honest, complete answers, AND encouraging ones
as well, 1999 will be a year of food panic. Like your withdrawals from
your bank account, what you take out of the store will be limited.
Rice: $7.29 for a 10 pound bag, reads the ad. Limit, one.
Coming to a store near you. Soon.
You have to be part of the solution. We have a year to reach more
people, to push for serious contingency planning, to help one another.
Think village. Think community. Grow a non-hybrid seed garden THIS
summer. Multiply the seed. Give some away. Learn to can and dry food.
Teach others to do the same. Teach your family members, too, in case
anything happens to you. Be part of the solution.
Ebola kills its host by infecting host cells with its "bad code",
corrupting and commandeering host DNA, forcing it to spew out bad,
instead of normal data, replicating the virus, over and over again,
until the whole host body is one seething bag of bad virus. Though
there have been a couple of reports of successful treatment with
antibodies against this monster, aggressive support of progressively
failing host systems is the only treatment available to date.
There is, at this time, no hope of going into every cell in every
host and excising or fixing the bad code. There is no magic bullet.
By a combination of arrogance, ignorance, greed and denial, we have
infected the global "host" with a technological Ebola. It is now
systemic. If the senior programmers are right, in 1999, we will begin
to bleed. In 2000, we will hemorrhage. Our focus must now shift from
expecting to cure it to contingency planning for critical, life systems
support. Electricity. Food. Water. Telecommunications. Fuel.
Medicine. From these, with newly found humility, we will rebuild.....
Geri Guidetti, The Ark Institute
**************************************************************************
The Ark Institute, PO Box 142, Oxford, OH 45056. Non-hybrid seeds,
educational materials, and support for sustainable food
self-sufficiency and self-reliance.
You CAN do this! http://www.arkinstitute.com
Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] The Institute's web site also
includes archived back issues of the Grain and Food Supply Updates.
