Mandel and Trotsky were both pretty clear that 'waves' is a misleading term, because it implies some kind of frequency and amplitude that there is no reason to believe in. (This is why Trotsky says he refers to curves, not waves.) At the same time, it does seem evident there are long periods of relatively rapid growth and others of relative stagnation. It seems to me Mandels' argument is a more orthodox version of what the regulation school tried to do - identify more historically concrete explanations for these periods and the factors involved in the shifts from one general period to the other. Regulation theory has become a complete mish-mash but I don't think that is a reason to give up on the general task, which is where the value of 'long waves' explanations come in. Technology is one of a number of factors that combined can lead to an upturn, but to his credit I think Mandel emphasized the 'external' factor of politics, especially the physical destruction of independent working class organizations in Europe by fascism, and the impact of WW2. If this historical example is anything to go by, it seems likely the 'big battles' are ahead of us, not behind. We get another chance! The labour movement in the U.S., Canada, Europe, etc. has been eating take-backs for awhile, but there is no country where capitalists believe they have inflicted the kind of defeat **they** think is necessary. We've discussed big strikes like in France and the UPS strike in the U.S. over the past year or two - isn't it obvious there is even an upturn in labour militancy compared to the days when many workers had been convinced that concessions were necessary and justified? Of course, we can all give up, or get so pre-occupied by side-issues like 'globalization' that capitalism as a system does find its way clear. There is some truth in the claim that "Marxists have correctly predicted seventeen of the last two great depressions", but it seems to me that Shaikh's argument that the offensive against labour has gone far enough to spark a new long wave takes fatalism much too far in the other direction. Bill Burgess
