BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 1, 2000
RELEASED TODAY: Total nonfarm employment fell by 105,000 in August, while
the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged. A further decline in the
number of temporary census workers (down 158,000 in August) and a strike in
the communications industry contributed to the over-the-month employment
drop, but manufacturing employment also declined. Private-sector employment
edged up by 17,000, although the gain would have been 102,000 had it not
been for strike effects. Job gains were strong in the services industry.
...
The best places in the nation to be a job seeker these days are state
capitals and university towns, which almost without exception have jobless
rates among the best in their states and way below the national average.
The city with the lowest unemployment rate in the country in July was
Columbia, Mo., home to the University of Missouri and an unemployment rate
of 1.1 percent, far below the unadjusted national average of 4.2 percent,
according to BLS. The seasonally adjusted national average, the number more
commonly used, is 4.0 percent. Economists expect it to hold there when the
government releases August's national figures today. Of the 41 state
capitals big enough to qualify as metropolitan areas in the BLS monthly
survey, 35 had unemployment rates better than their respective state
average. College towns did even better, commonly registering unemployment
rates more than twice as low as the national average. ... BLS economists
have been aware of the trend for at least a decade, but there's never been a
study to determine why it's so. One apparent reason for the trend in state
capitals is that state governments are generally immune to the ups and downs
that cause unemployment in private business, says BLS economist Ken
LeVasseur. ... (George Hager in USA Today, page 1B).
Letter carriers and mail handlers are no more likely to "go postal" than
other workers, according to a report released Thursday after two years of
study. ... Of 6,719 workplace homicides from 1992 to 1998, 16 were postal
employees, and nine of those were killed by current or former co-workers.
Postal Service workers are only one-third as likely as those in the national
work force to be victims of homicide while at work, the USPS commission on a
Safe and Secure Workplace reported. The data showed that retail employees
were eight times more likely than postal workers to be killed at work and
taxi drivers are 150 times likelier than letter carriers to be homicide
victims at work. ... The 249-page study, which cost almost $4 million, was
prepared by the National Center on Addiction and Substance Abuse at Columbia
University. ... In what it claims was the most comprehensive study of
violence in the American workplace, the commission surveyed nearly 12,000
postal workers and 3,000 employees in the national work force. ...
(Washington Post, page A25)_____The study examined known cases of current or
former postal workers committing a workplace homicide and found that motives
included robbery, actual and desired intimate relationships, and workplace
disputes. ... When the survey of homicides is extended back to 1986 --
before BLS began gathering comprehensive workplace fatality -- the USPS
numbers are higher. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-8).
The nation's labor unions, borrowing a page from corporate America, are
increasingly turning to mergers as a way to grow, following a decades-long
slide in membership and prestige. At least 39 union mergers have taken
place since 1990, up from 35 in the 1980s, 27 in the 1970s, and 24 in the
1960s. The pace of merger activity has slowed slightly recently, but that
largely reflects the fact that there are simply fewer unions left. ... For
small unions, whose viability and, indeed, survival are threatened by
continuing membership losses, mergers provide access to much-needed
financial and organizational resources. For larger unions, absorbing their
smaller counterparts offers a way to add tens of thousands of new
dues-paying members without having to mount an expensive and time-consuming
organizing drive. ... On paper, 1999 was a great year for the nation's
unions. Membership jumped by 265,000, the largest annual numerical gain in
more than 20 years, to nearly 16.5 million. Organized labor was also able
to stop a long decline in the percentage of the total work force that
belongs to a union, which was unchanged last year at 13.9 percent after
sliding steadily throughout the decade. At the bargaining table, unions
benefited from a jobless rate of just 4 percent, one of the lowest levels on
record. With employers well aware of how hard it would be to find skilled
replacement workers in the case of a protracted labor dispute, unions won
significant concessions during recent strikes against companies such as
Boeing Corp. and Verizon Communications Inc. ... Charts on union membership
are credited to BLS (Yochi J. Dreazen in Wall Street Journal, page A2).
Economic growth finally seems to be slowing to the pace the Federal Reserve
has been shooting for, but it could take a year or more for activity to slow
enough to relax taut labor markets, economists contacted by BNA said. And,
if the economy does not cool to a growth rate well below the nation's trend
pace of about 4 percent -- and for longer than a quarter or two -- tight job
markets could bring the record-long U.S. expansion to an end, either through
accelerating inflation or jittery financial markets, they warned. ...
(Daily Labor Report, page D-1).
New claims filed with state agencies for unemployment insurance benefits
declined by about 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted total of 318,000 during the
week ended Aug. 26, according to the Labor Department's Employment and
Training Administration. Despite the small decline over the most recent
week, the level of initial UI claims remained somewhat higher than in recent
months, adding to what appears to be mounting evidence that job growth is
slowing. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-3).
The Conference Board's help-wanted advertising index rose by 2 percentage
points to 82 percent in July, but the longer-term trend remained downward
compared with earlier this year. Over the last year, the index has moved in
a narrow range. In July, 1999 it stood at 86 percent. During the last
three months, help-wanted advertising fell in all regions except New
England, where it rose 4.2 percent between May and July. The steepest
declines during that period were in the central region, parts of the
Midwest, and the Mid-Atlantic states. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-6).
U.S. factory orders posted their largest decline on record in July, but a
buildup of inventories suggests continued strength in the manufacturing
sector. The Commerce Department said factory orders fell 7.5 percent,
following a 5.2 percent gain in June. The sharp fall wasn't unexpected,
however, given last week's durable-goods report, which showed a 12.4 percent
drop. Durable goods regularly account for more than half of all factory
orders. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2).
After watching business slow for six months, the nation's merchants reported
only slight gains in sales of back-to-school merchandise -- news that may
not bode well for the rest of the year and the coming holiday season.
Retail sales for August in stores open at least a year, a crucial industry
measurement, rose just 3 percent, according to the Goldman Sachs retail
composite index. The numbers were hardly disastrous, but they were lower
than analysts had expected and the weakest August results in three years.
... (New York Times, page C1).
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