Hello Lou,
To me, the interesting point about the snippet from The Independent
regarding sanctions was that up until the coup, and even afterwards, up
until Kostunica was sworn in, the US was announcing that it would lift
sanctions immediately (as a way of encouraging people to support the
opposition). The moment Kostunica was sworn in, the US suddenly says, oh
no, we are not going to lift sanctions, here is another condition. So the
public pronouncement about lifting sanctions was a deliberate lie -
intended to aid the opposition. Even if Kostunica were to meet this new
condition, I have little doubt that new conditions would pop up. It would
be a very effective lever to move the Kostunica government - much of his
support came from people who were weary of sanctions. Adding new conditions
puts Kostunica in the awkward position of either kowtowing to US demands
(economic demands, at least, he would likely be happy to do), or seeing a
continuation of sanctions during his administration - causing him to lose a
major element of his public support.
When I was in Yugoslavia, it was clear to me that the left had great
support. There were certainly plenty of supporters of the right as well,
but their strength did not appear to match that of the left. Many of the
supporters of the right said their support was based on the belief, "Just
give the Americans what they want, and maybe they'll leave us alone." A
naive belief, of course, but one I am sure explains much of Kostunica's
support. It will be interesting to see how his supporters react when they
realize they've been had.
Louis Proyect
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