Some here have said that if Bush gets
the White House, he'll probably have a recession
to deal with right away.
This isn't the worst thing for Bush. If he
gets a first-year recession, his chance of
being re-elected are improved, compared to
having a recession later in his term.
Especially since about 40% of the electorate
will fanatically believe that the recession is
Clinton's fault, even before they're told to
(In fact, I'd bet on 35% believing that every
recession from the founding of the country
through the year 2100 is Clinton's fault).
There will be some problem with the 2002 election,
since the economy wouldn't yet be recovered. The
Democrats would probably pick up the House (I'm
assuming that Bush has non-negative coat-tails,
so his victory would also bring in at least
a few Republican House members). However, the worst
that would likely happen is that Bush would have
a GOP Senate, and a House with a slim Democratic
majority. In which case he'd just have to be
able to peel off less than 10% of the House
Democrats to get his way. I.e., the first Reagan
administration.
Barry
