Well, when I issued my forecast last week on
how to read the results from the Kentucky, first state
to report (at least in the past), I had forgotten how
unpopular Gore is in that state because of his tobacco
and coal positions. Yesterday's Washington Post has
Bush leading Gore there by 15 points.
So, the revised Kentucky call is that if Bush wins
Kentucky by more than 18 points he is a clear winner
and if he wins it by less than 10 points (or loses it),
then Gore will win. Anything in between, well, wait for
those well known battleground states.
The call on control of the House remains the same,
a victory by Jordan over Northrup in the Louisville 3rd
means a Dem victory in the House of Reps. Otherwise,
if Northrup wins by more than 5 points, a definite Repug
victory.
However, a close reading of stories about races across
the country reveals how many are close, including senate ones.
Early reports suggest higher than usual turnout. Could be an
outcome that nobody expects in quite a few races.
Also, the Post had forecasts by 14 different analysts. Four
of them had the Dems winning the House by one seat, but then
James Trafficant of Ohio defecting and giving the Repugs control,
as he has promised to do.
Two of those forecasters had Gore winning the electoral
college while losing the popular vote. I now see that as about
one in six, with Bush overall have a 2 to 1 edge.
Nader has a better chance than Strom Thurmond, but not
as good a chance as Dennis Hastert (or even maybe Gephardt).
One of them gets it if the electoral college and the House of Reps
both split evenly, not all that out of the question.
BTW, have already done my Nader trade.... :-).
Barkley Rosser
