BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, DECEMBER 4, 2000
The Wall Street Journal's "Tracking the Economy" (A15) says that the BLS
productivity figure for the third quarter, to be released Wednesday, is
likely to be 3.5 percent, according to the Thomson Global Forecast, in
comparison to the previous preliminary figure of 3.8 percent. BLS' November
unemployment rate, to be released Friday, is expected to be 4.0 percent,
compared with the actual figure of 3.9 percent for October. Nonfarm
payrolls are projected to have risen 148,000 in November, compared with
137,000 in October. November average hourly earnings, also to be released
Friday, are expected to move up 0.3 percent, slightly less than the 0.4
percent increase for October.
Business activity in the manufacturing sector contracted at a faster rate in
November, falling for the fourth consecutive month and reaching its lowest
level of the year, according to a survey by the National Association of
Purchasing Managers. NAPM's purchasing manager's index of manufacturing
activity slid 0.6 percentage point to 47.7 percent in November, down from
the 12-month high of 57.1 percent posted in November 1999. NAPM said a
purchasing manager's index below 50 generally shows that the manufacturing
economy is contracting, while a number above 50 would show that it is
expanding. Analysts said the slowdown in manufacturing activity still is
consistent with a "soft landing," and the NAPM index historically has not
signaled a recession until it has fallen below 45 percent. ...
Manufacturing employment contracted in November, falling 1.9 percentage
points to 46 percent as companies that indicated they were maintaining
employment levels in October decided to cut jobs in November. The five
industries that reported growth in employment during November were
instruments and photographic equipment, wood and wood products, electronic
components and equipment, food, and chemicals (Daily Labor Report, page A-2;
New York Times, Dec. 2, page B1).
These are rough times for the nation's old-line manufacturers, who are
feeling the sting of higher interest rates, falling domestic demand, and a
global economic slowdown. For many construction companies, by contrast,
business is better than it has been in months, as developers pour hundreds
of millions of dollars into apartment buildings and business construction.
The two industries' differing fortunes are complicating efforts to gauge the
duration and intensity of the economic slowdown. The National Association
of Purchasing Management said its manufacturing index declined for the
fourth consecutive month in November, indicating the sector continues to
slow significantly. If extended over a year, the data would be consistent
with an economy inching up an anemic 1.9 percent. The Commerce Department,
by contrast, said that construction spending jumped 0.9 percent in October,
to its second highest level on record, suggesting that the sector will offer
a sizable boost to overall economic growth. ... (Wall Street Journal, page
A2).
The combined sales of Detroit-based automakers fell 3.5 percent last month,
compared with November of last year. While sales are still at a level that
would have been considered very strong until the last 2 years, they have now
lagged last year's pace in 6 of the last 7 months -- and much more
production capacity is becoming available. General Motors, Ford Motor, and
DaimlerChrysler have already responded by eliminating overtime and briefly
closing a few factories. Ford and the Chrysler unit of DaimlerChrysler both
announced further temporary closings. ... (New York Times, Dec. 2, page B1)
Liberal arts graduates can expect to be more sought after this year and to
be offered better salaries, according to the 30th annual recruiting trends
survey conducted by the Collegiate Employment Research Institute at Michigan
State University. Among the reasons: the earlier-than-predicted
retirements of the oldest baby boomers. Also, with the high tech industry
booming, employers have changed their attitudes about liberal arts majors.
A total of 380 employers primarily in the manufacturing and professional
services sectors responded to the survey(USA Today, page 8D).
Expressing their growing concerns about the economic outlook, the National
Association of Manufacturers officials say they will urge Congress and the
new administration to promptly turn their attention to policy initiatives --
including tax cuts -- to keep the economy growing. ... The Federal Reserve
should start reducing short-term interest rates to spur growth, the
president of the NAM says. The central bank's Federal Open Market Committee
generally is expected to remain on the sidelines when it next meets Dec. 19.
... Factory employment losses have totaled 121,000 over the year ended in
October, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
... Higher energy prices and rising interest rates have hit manufacturing
harder than some other sectors, the NAM officials say. However, they
stopped short of saying industries represented by the organization's 14,000
members are in a recession. ... Looking ahead to 2001, the NAM president
says the organization's economists are divided, with some putting real GDP
growth at close to 3 percent for next year and others expecting closer to 2
percent. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-12)
DUE OUT TOMORROW: Mass Layoffs in October 2000
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