----- Original Message -----
From: "Louis Proyect" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>If and when objective conditions foment a Buchanan candidacy, I
>would expect the Democrats to run somebody who has an abysmal position on
>immigration and all the rest of it.
New immigrants becoming citizens are voting Democrats in overwhelming
numbers. Why would Democrats, even as craven opportunists, do anything to
stop a massive expansion of their supporters? Given that Dems have added
millions of new voters in the last four years - a big reason for the total
destruction of the GOP as a viable political force in California - the
"Buchanan leakage" of nativist voters would have to get incredibly large to
make such a move rational.
In the midst of the nativist, anti-immigrant, anti-Catholic hysteria of the
1920s, the Dems moved the other way in 1928 in electing Al Smith, thereby
locking in white Catholics and many other white ethnics for the next
generation. 1994 in California is a good example of this dynamic- the GOP
lunged to the Right on immigration issues - remember Pete Wilson had once
supported immigration - while the Dems solidified a pro-immigrant position.
Whether based on principle or opportunism, the results for the Dems have
been fantastic with a massive increase in latino voters as a percentage of
the population and a massive partisan increase of latinos voting Democratic.
Nationally, Dems have learned from that result. They recognize that the
demographic shift that has hit California is hitting the whole country over
the next decades, so they have strengthened their pro-immigration positions
on amnesty et al. The shift of the labor unions towards a stronger
pro-immigrant position - partly from recognizing the same demographic shifts
for organizing - are just reinforcing that shift by the Dems. I'm sure
there will be backtracking by some Dems when the recession hits, but it will
not be wholesale and the basic pattern of pro-immigrant positions will
remain, from NLRB protection to restoration of welfare benefits for legal
immigrants.
-- Nathan Newman
