> BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, MARCH 15, 2001:
>
> Released Today: The U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.1 percent in
> February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The rise
> followed a 0.1 percent decrease in January and was led by an increase in
> imported petroleum prices. The Export Price Index declined 0.2 percent in
> February, after gaining 0.3 percent in January.
>
> The probability of losing a job in a downturn is close to converging for
> men and women, yet women still take longer to find work again, according
> to the latest data from the U.S. Labor Department. In the years 1997
> through 1999, 8.9 percent of men reported having lost at least one job
> compared to 8.3 percent of women. From 1991 to 1993, more than 3
> percentage points separated the sexes, with 12.5 percent for men and 9.2
> percent for women. Historically, women have been less likely to suffer
> layoffs because they worked primarily in sectors such as health care and
> services, industries more impervious to business cycle swings than
> male-dominated manufacturing and construction. But that's changing as
> more women work outside traditionally female jobs. "Women are more
> dispersed throughout the economy and are more likely to have moved into
> jobs with a cyclical component," Labor Department economist Deborah Klein
> said. And that means they are more likely to be threatened by corporate
> cost cutting. "They moved out of the pink-collar ghetto into jobs with
> higher visibility and higher earnings, but those are the jobs that are
> more subject to job loss," said Lori Kletzer, a visiting fellow at the
> Institute for International Economics. Some of it has to do with sheer
> numbers. Women now account for 46 percent of the American workforce, up
> from 38 percent in 1970. The growth has occurred both in private business
> and government. Women in 2000 made up 57 percent of public sector
> workers, up from 52 percent in 1980; in the private sector, the fraction
> was 48 percent last year compared to 42 percent in 1980.... "What we don't
> know is if women in duel-income families are somehow more constrained in
> their job search than if the man had lost the job," says Kletzer (Kristen
> Gerencher, CBS MarketWatch.com, in an article datelined San Francisco).
>
> Stockpiles of unsold goods rose more than expected in January, as sales
> stalled, a government report showed today, signaling that manufacturing
> may be slow to pick up in coming months. Inventories rose 0.4 percent,
> the largest increase since October, after no change a month earlier,
> according to the Commerce Department. Sales were unchanged in January,
> after rising 0.1 percent the previous month. Stockpiles were sitting at
> businesses longer in January after rising 0.1 percent the previous month.
> Stockpiles were sitting at businesses longer in January than at any time
> since March 1999, suggesting consumer demand is not picking up enough to
> encourage companies to increase production and help lift the economy
> (Bloomberg News in The New York Times, page C7).
>
> Inventories at U.S. companies increased in January, as businesses failed
> to unload excess stocks. But the figures are unlikely to have much impact
> on Wall Street because they were roughly in line with analysts'
> expectations. On the sales side, sales were unchanged in January, after
> rising 0.1 percent in December (The Wall Street Journal, page A2).
>
> "Forget computer programming," says USA Today, page 3B). "The jobs and
> money are in dispensing drugs." Salaries and perks are driven by one
> thing: The demand for pharmacists exceeds the supply. The demand for
> pharmacists comes as the number of prescriptions written has soared from
> 1.9 billion in 1992 to 3.1 billion last year -- and is expected to reach 4
> billion in 2004. At the same time, the number of graduates from pharmacy
> schools has leveled off and applications are up only slightly. A federal
> report on the pharmacist shortage says that dealing with insurers takes up
> an estimated 10 to 20 percent of a pharmacist's time. Hassles such as this
> affect hiring. As a selling point, hospitals try to lure new grads
> pointing out that their pharmacists don't have to deal with insurers.
> They also have more opportunity to work with patients and doctors. But
> hospitals are competing for pharmacists against retail pharmacies and
> mail-order houses, both of which generally pay more and offer perks to new
> workers. In retail, salaries start at about $75,000 for new graduates.
> Cars, signing bonuses, and tuition reimbursements are also offered, says a
> recruitment firm that helped place 252 pharmacists last year. Starting
> salaries at hospitals generally range from $67,000 to $72,000.
> Pharmacists spend 4 years earning their degree, plus 2 or more years in
> college-level studies before pharmacy school. There are 82 colleges of
> pharmacy in the USA, which last year enrolled 34,481 students and
> graduated 7,260 says a senior vice president of the American Association
> of Colleges of Pharmacy. Female graduates outnumber men almost 2 to 1
> (USA Today, page 3B).
>
> The Wage Trend Indicator remained below its readings for most of last
> year, hinting that wage pressures may ease later this year, according to
> revised figures for the first quarter released by the Bureau of National
> Affairs (Daily Labor Report, page D-1).
>
> "There's no question that the Consumer Confidence Index, as measured by
> the Conference Board, is a reliable gauge of how consumers feel. It tracks
> their moods with a questionnaire mailed to 5,000 households each month
> that asks about business conditions, employment, and family income as they
> exist now and as they are expected to be 6 months ahead. Results of this
> index, which is down 26 percent from May 2000, closely match those of the
> other main indicator of consumer thinking, the University of Michigan's
> Consumer Sentiment Index, which uses a phone survey and a sample size of
> 500. But a fall in confidence isn't even a sure sign that consumers will
> cut back on spending. Spending is much more responsive to the tangible
> influence of jobs and incomes than to the ups and downs of confidence and
> expectations, which are affected by a slew of often temporary factors.
> Instead of the confidence index, some economists prefer to focus more
> narrowly on consumer expectations about the economy's future performance.
> Indeed, the Conference Board's Expectations Index, a component of their
> broader confidence measure, does yield slightly better economic forecasts,
> according to research by two Federal Reserve Bank economists. But that
> measure also comes up short: Consumer expectations are unreliable in
> forecasting recessions. The recent solid showing of retail sales, autos,
> and housing also indicates that spending can stay buoyant as expectations
> drop. As long as unemployment stays tame, consumers are unlikely to throw
> in the towel (Charles J. Whalen in Business Week, March 19, page 65).
>
> Producer prices of finished goods likely rose 0.1 percent in February.
> Core prices, which exclude food and energy, likely grew by a similar 0.1
> percent (Business Week, March 19, page 114).
>
> DUE OUT TOMORROW: Producer Price Indexes, February 2001
>
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