> BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, APRIL 19, 2001:
>
> RELEASED TODAY: In 2000, 83.2 percent of U.S. families had at least one
> employed member, about unchanged from 1999, the U.S. Department of Labor
> Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Of the nation's 71.7 million
> families, 5.7 percent reported having an unemployed member, a decline of
> 0.3 percentage point from the previous year.
>
> The median weekly earnings of the full-time labor force of the United
> States rose to $592 during the first quarter of 2001, a 3.0 percent
> increase from the comparable period of 2000, the Bureau of Labor
> Statistics reports. BLS said the data shows that the increase in "usual
> weekly earnings" of respondents trailed the 4.0 percent compounded annual
> rate of inflation for the first quarter of 2001, and the 3.4 percent
> annual rate of inflation for 2000 (Daily Labor Report, page D-9).
>
> The Conference Board reports that its index of leading economic indicators
> dropped 0.3 percent in March, which it says adds to a string of declines
> that project sluggish growth rather than a recession. The March decline
> in the index followed a 0.2 percent decrease in February, and marked the
> fifth time the measure has fallen in the last 6 months. The index of
> leading indicators stood at 108.5 percent in March, down 1.2 percent from
> its peak of last September (Daily Labor Report, page D-8; USA Today, page
> B1).
>
> Indexes disagree over the odds for a recession, says The Wall Street
> Journal (page A2). The Conference Board in New York reported the latest
> results of its Index of Leading Indicators, which is designed to forecast
> where the economy is headed in the next 3 to 6 months. "No recession is
> on the horizon," the group said. Meanwhile, the New York-based Economic
> Cycle Research Institute says its monthly and weekly leading indexes show
> a recession is :no longer avoidable". The last time the group made such a
> call for February 6, 1990 -- just before the economy last plunged into
> recession (The Wall Street Journal, page A2).
>
> Data compiled by the Bureau of National Affairs in the first 16 weeks of
> 2001 show that the weighted average first-year wage increase in newly
> negotiated contracts is 5.1 percent, compared with 3.7 percent in 2000.
> The manufacturing industry weighted average increase is 3.7 percent,
> compared with 3.3 percent in 2000, while nonmanufacturing (excluding
> construction) agreements show a weighted average increase of 4.2 percent
> (Daily Labor Report, page D-15).
>
> The United States trade deficit shrank to its narrowest level in more than
> a year in February, as imports declined, the Commerce Department reported
> today, indicating that the cooling economy had reduced demand for consumer
> products, oil and goods from abroad. The trade deficit declined to $27
> billion from $33.3 billion in January, the largest drop since monthly
> record-keeping started in 1992, the department said. Analysts had
> expected a February deficit of $33 billion (Bloomberg News in The New York
> Times, page C6).
>
> The U.S. trade deficit narrowed a whopping $6.26 billion in February, as
> U.S. consumers finally curbed their appetite for imports. But economists
> were quick to point out that a big drop in oil prices was one of the main
> reasons behind the plunge in imports, and they predicted it wouldn't last.
> Exports continued their anemic growth, rising to $90.46 billion from
> January's $89.59 billion. February exports were helped by jumps in sales
> of civilian aircraft, jewelry and telecommunications gear; they were hurt
> by declining sales of semiconductors, industrial machines, computer
> accessories and industrial diamonds (The Wall Street Journal, page A2).
>
> Thirty-eight percent of economists interviewed by Blue Chip Economic
> Indicators, a newsletter based in Alexandria, Va., said they expected a
> recession this coming year. But with interest rates falling, most
> economists say consumers will buy houses, cars and other goods at a
> healthy pace as they have continued to do for most of the year.
> Economists agree, either confidence will begin to recover, or spending
> will start falling. The pessimists think the adjustment has already
> begun. In March, as the unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent and the
> economy lost the highest number of jobs in a single month since 1991,
> retail sales fell slightly. During the early weeks of this month, initial
> unemployment claims increased to their highest level in 5 years. Few
> analysts expect the unemployment rate to fall soon. Behind some of the
> concern is the technology boom of the late 1990's. Eager investors
> encouraged companies to spend billions of dollars on new computer and
> telecommunications equipment. Largely as a result, productivity -- what
> one worker can produce in one hour -- surged. But many companies now find
> themselves with more equipment than they can profitably use (The New York
> Times, News Analysis by David Leonhardt, page 1).
>
> DUE OUT TOMORROW: "Regional and State Employment and Unemployment, March
> 2001."
>
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