India is the new Pakistan America's proposed missile defence system is causing a frantic realignment of alliances in south Asia Luke Harding Wednesday May 16, 2001 The Guardian For students of south Asian politics, the diplomatic choreography of the past week has been intriguing. Over in New Delhi, the bullet-shaped US deputy secretary of state, Richard Armitage, was busy convincing India of the virtues of the Bush administration's national missile defence programme (NMD). In Islamabad, meanwhile, China's prime minister, Zhu Rongji, has been expressing his country's eternal friendship with Pakistan, its nuclear neighbour. Already, it seems, the White House's contentious "star wars" scheme is provoking a new realignment of forces in the region. China and Pakistan are bitterly opposed to NMD. They are in one camp. In the other are the US and its new strategic ally, India. Most of the countries visited by George Bush's frantic envoys over the past few days have given the NMD a lukewarm response. India, by contrast, has enthusiastically welcomed the idea. India's prime minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, has publicly lauded the president's bold vision of an anti-missile defence shield capable of protecting the world from rogue nuclear states. The Indian government's stand is, of course, motivated largely by self-interest. Most observers believe that, following New Delhi's zealous endorsement of NMD, the Bush administration will lift the sanctions that were imposed on India three years ago in the wake of its nuclear tests. The sanctions are expected to be removed in the next three to six months. Mr Vajpayee, meanwhile, has invited President Bush to visit the subcontinent - an offer which has reportedly been accepted by the White House. The president's envoys, who have been busy selling NMD to Moscow, London, Istanbul, Tokyo and Seoul, have so far not bothered to visit Pakistan. According to a report in the New York Times, Mr Armitage has singled out Pakistan as one of several "irresponsible" rogue states from which NMD is supposed to offer protection. The others include North Korea, Libya, Iran and Iraq. Against this backdrop, then, prime minister Zhu Rongji's visit to Pakistan has a tantalising piquancy. China and Pakistan have been allies for a long time. According to US intelligence sources, China has substantially assisted Pakistan to develop its nuclear missile programme, which most defence analysts believe is now far superior to India's. Last weekend a Chinese journalist asked Pakistan's military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, what he thought of NMD. His reply was guarded. But it was clear that he is not exactly a fan. "We are against any action that reinitiates the nuclear and missile race," he declared. And so, in the face of a new and perplexing hostility from the US, China and Pakistan have pledged to deepen their friendship. As each day passes, the contours of this pragmatic anti-American alliance become more defined. Zhu Rongji, quoting an ancient Chinese proverb, put it like this: "It takes high winds to know the strength of grass and it takes time to know the heart of man." The "precious" friendship between the two countries had withstood the test of history, he told a banquet in Lahore. All this, of course, illustrates just how far we have come from the 1970s and 1980s, when America indulged Pakistan as its favoured ally in the region. The US regarded Mrs Gandhi's India as being pro-Moscow. And it was deeply suspicious - with good reason, as it turned out - of the Soviet Union's ambitions in central Asia and Afghanistan. When the Soviets invaded Kabul, it was an earlier Republican administration that showered Pakistan with economic and military assistance. But times have changed. The mojahedin groups that enjoyed American largesse in their brave guerrilla war against Russia went on to declare jihad against the US. And the Taliban, aided by Pakistan, seized Afghanistan. The Taliban continue to harbour the US's arch-foe, Osama bin Laden. As far as the Bush administration is concerned, India is now the new Pakistan. This biblical casting off of an old friend by the Bush regime has caused great upset in Islamabad - not least because of the military's natural antipathy towards the previous White House incumbent, Bill Clinton. Last year, Clinton made a triumphant five-day pilgrim age to India - and dropped in to Islamabad for only five hours in order to give General Musharraf a ticking off for having seized power in a coup. As one very senior Pakistani general told me, every single ordinary Pakistani rejoiced when George W was elected - and this, he asked rhetorically, is how he repays us? NMD, he added, is a bad idea. It could set off a new nuclear arms race in a region not exactly noted for its restraint. Despite an impending visit by Pakistan's foreign minister Abdul Sattar to Washington next month, it could be a long time before these one-time allies rediscover their special relationship. And Kashmir, where the possibility of war is never far away, looks a more dangerous place than ever.
