Daniel Ellsberg is also author of the 1961 article, "Risk, ambiguity and the
Savage axioms" published in the _Quarterly Journal of Economics_. That
article makes it quite clear why and when it doesn't make sense to treat
*uncertainty* as if it was probabilistic risk, something that economic
modelers persist on doing anyway.
June 29, 2001
Lying About Vietnam
By DANIEL ELLSBERG
The Pentagon Papers, published 30 years ago this month, proved that the
government had long lied to the country. Indeed, the papers revealed a
policy of concealment and quite deliberate deception from the Truman
administration onward.
A generation of presidents, believing that the course they were following
was in the best interests of the country, nevertheless chose to conceal from
Congress and the public what the real policy was, what alternatives were
being pressed on them from within the government, and the pessimistic
predictions they were receiving about the prospects of their chosen course.
Why the lies and concealment? And why, starting in 1969, did I risk prison
to reveal the documentary record? I can give a definite answer to the second
question: I believed that the pattern of secret threats and escalation
needed to be exposed because it was being repeated under a new president. . .
http://partners.nytimes.com/2001/06/29/opinion/29ELLS.html?todaysheadlines
Tom Walker
Bowen Island, BC
604 947 2213
