Doug Henwood wrote,
> remember, the U.S. economy has expanded for about 75% of
> the time since the end of WW II
That sounds like an underestimate to me. All I've got handy is annual GDP
figures for Canada, 1962-99. They show 3 years out of 38 contracting.
Assuming those 3 minus years contracted for 4 consecutive quarters and
throwing in another 12 quarters of contraction for good measure, leaves
about 85% expansion. This crude reckoning corroborates the guess I made
before cranking up my spreadsheet. I wouldn't expect the U.S. record for the
entire post wwII period to be worse.
But I should point out that if you walk out in the rain, you are probably
not getting hit by raindrops on more than 15% of your body surface at any
one time. That 15% can get you awful wet. Numbers that are least accurate at
turning points are like brakes that work most of the time except for sudden
stops or on steep hills.
Tom Walker
Bowen Island, BC
604 947 2213
