Tom Walker wrote: >". . . sales aside from cars >posted their biggest surge since March >2000, aided by higher prices at the gas >pump . . ." > >I guess I'm just thick. I can't figure out how anyone figures a "surge" in >retail sales if the uptick is entirely due to higher gas prices and >excluding slumping car sales from the total. As Max pointed out, the recent >"surge" in 4th quarter GDP was in real terms, after adjusting for price >deflation. That number included car sales bloated by 0% interest rates. > >Lies, damned lies and audited financial statements.
Sorry to disappoint, Tom, but taking out gas station sales as well as autos, retail sales were still up 0.8% month-to-month. Surge is jounrnalistic hyperbole, for sure, but consumption is holding up in the U.S. And with the initial unemployment claims falling and consumer confidence rising, it's looking very much like a trough. It could all fall apart, but it ain't yet. And the Redbook retail sales survey for the first week of Feb was up 4.2% year-on-year, bringing the three-month moving average to +1.9%. Since auto sales are much stronger than anyone expected after the fading of 0% financing, retail is looking pretty strong. Sorry again. Doug
