Uri Avnery
9.2.02
The Great Game
Some weeks ago, something curious happened: Israel discovered that Iran is the
Great Satan.
It happened quite suddenly. There was no prior sensational news, no new
discovery. As if by the order of a drill-sergeant, the whole Israeli phalanx changed
direction. All the politicians, all the generals, all the enlisted media, with the
usual complement of professors-for-hire, - all of them discovered overnight that Iran
is the immediate, real and terrible danger.
By wondrous coincidence, at exactly the same moment a ship was captured that,
allegedly, carried Iranian arms to Arafat. And in Washington Shimon Peres, a man for
all seasons and the servant of all masters, accosted every passing diplomat and told
him stories about thousands of Iranian missiles that have been given to the Hizbullah.
Yes, yes, Hizbullah (included by President Bush in the list of "terrorist
organizations") is receiving horrible arms from Iran (included by President Bush in
the "Axis of Evil") in order to threaten Israel, the darling of the Congress.
Does this sound mad? Not at all. There is method in this madness.
On the face of it, the matter is easy to explain. America is still in a state of
fury after the Twin-Towers outrage. It has won a amazing victory in Afghanistan,
hardly sacrificing a single American soldier. Now it stands, furious and drunk with
victory, and does not know who to attack next. Iraq? North Korea? Somalia? The Sudan?
President Bush cannot stop now, because such an immense concentration of might
cannot be laid off. The more so, as Bin-Laden has not been killed. The economic
situation has deteriorated, a giant scandal (Enron) is rocking Washington. The
American public should not be left to ponder on this.
So here comes the Israeli leadership and shouts from the roof-tops: Iran is the
enemy! Iran must be attacked!
Who has made that decision? When? How? And most importantly - Where? Clearly not
in Jerusalem, but in Washington DC. An important component of the US administration
has given Israel a sign: Start a massive political offensive in order to pressure the
Congress, the media and American public opinion.
Who are these people? And what is their interest? A wider explanation is needed.
The most coveted resource on earth is the giant oil-field in the Caspian Sea
region, that competes in scale with the riches of Saudi Arabia. In 2010 it is expected
to yield 3.2 billion barrels of crude oil per day, in addition to 4850 billion cubic
feet of natural gas per year.
The United States is determined (a) to take possession of it, (b) to eliminate
all potential competitors, (c) to safeguard the area politically and militarily, and
(d) to clear a way from the oil-fields to the open sea.
This campaign is being led by a group of oil people, to which the Bush family
belongs. Together with the arms industry, this group got both George Bush senior and
George Bush junior elected. The President is a simple person, his mental world is
shallow and his pronouncements are primitive, bordering on caricature, like a
second-rate Western. That is good for the masses. But his handlers are very
sophisticated people indeed. It's they who guide the administration.
The Twin Towers outrage made their job much easier. Osama Bin Laden did not
comprehend that his actions serve American interests. If I were a believer in
Conspiracy Theory, I would think that Bin Laden is an American agent. Not being one, I
can only wonder at the coincidence.
Bush's "War on Terrorism" constitutes a perfect pretext for the campaign planned
by his handlers. Under the cover of this war, America has taken total control over the
three small Muslim nations near the oil reserves: Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and
Kyrgyzstan. The whole region is now completely under American political-military
domination. All potential competitors - including Russia and China - have been pushed
out.
For a long time, the Americans have been arguing among themselves about the best
route for piping this oil to the open sea. Routes that may be under Russian influence
have been eliminated. The 19th century, deadly British-Russian competition, then
called the "Great Game", is still going on between America and Russia.
Until recently, the western route, leading to the Black Sea and Turkey, seemed
most feasible, but the Americans did not like it very much, to say the least. Russia
is much too near.
The best route leads south, to the Indian Ocean. Iran was not even considered,
since it is governed by Islamic fanatics. So there remained the alternative route:
from the Caspian Sea, through Afghanistan and the western part of Pakistan (called
Beluchistan), to the Indian Ocean. To this end, the Americans conducted, ever so
quietly, negotiations with the Taliban regime. They bore no fruit. Then the "War on
Terrorism" was started, the US conquered all of Afghanistan and installed their agents
as the new government. The Pakistani dictator, too, was bent to the American will.
If one looks at the map of the big American bases created for the war, one is
struck by the fact that they are completely identical to the route of the projected
oil pipeline to the Indian Ocean.
That would have been the end of the story, but the appetite grows with the
eating. The Americans drew two lessons from the Afghani experience: (a) that every
country can be subdued by sophisticated bombs, without putting any soldiers in harm's
way, and (b) that by military might and money America can install client governments
anywhere.
And so a new idea came up in Washington: Why lay a long pipeline around Iran
(through Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan) if one can lay a much shorter
pipeline through Iran itself? One has only to topple the Ayatullah regime and install
a new pro-American government. In the past, that seemed impossible. Now, after the
Afghani episode, it looks eminently practicable. One has only to prepare American
public opinion and to acquire the support of the congress for an attack on Iran.
For this, Israel's good services are needed. It has an enormous influence in the
Congress and the media. It works like this: Israeli generals declare every day that
Iran is producing weapons of mass-destruction and threatens the Jewish State with a
second Holocaust. Sharon announces that the capture of the Iranian arms-ship proves
Arafat is a part of the Iranian conspiracy. Peres tells everybody that Iranian
missiles threaten the whole world. Every day some newspaper tells its readers that Bin
Laden is in Iran or with the Hizbullah in Lebanon.
President Bush knows how to reward those who serve him well. Sharon got a free
hand to oppress the Palestinians, imprison Arafat, assassinate militants and enlarge
the settlements. It's a simple deal: You deliver the support of the Congress and the
media, I deliver the Palestinians on a platter.
This could not happen if America was still in need of allies in Europe and the
Arab world. But in Afghanistan, the Americans learned that they don't need anybody
anymore. They can spit in the eyes of the pitiful Arab regimes, that are always
begging for money, and disregard Europe altogether. Who needs the negligible armies of
Britain and Germany, when America alone is mightier then all the armies of the world
combined?
The idea of American-Israeli cooperation against Iran is not new for Sharon. On
the contrary, in 1981, when he was just appointed Minister of Defense, he offered the
Pentagon a daring plan: in the event of Khomeini's demise, the Israeli army would
immediately occupy Iran, in order to forestall the Soviet Union. The IDF would turn
the country over to the slow-moving Americans, once they arrived. For this purpose,
the Pentagon would stockpile in advance the most sophisticated arms in Israel, under
American control, to be used in this operation.
The Pentagon did not accept the idea at that time. Now, the cooperation is being
established against a different background.
What conclusions should we draw from all this?
First of all, that we shall be located on the frontline of this coming war.
Beyond the exchange of curses between the "two Persian Chiefs-of-Staff" (as the joke
goes in Israeli command circles, alluding to the fact that Shaul Mofaz was born in
Iran), an Iranian reaction to an American assault may hurt us grievously. There are
missiles. There are chemical and biological weapons.
Second, that those of us who desire an Israeli-Palestinian peace cannot rely on
America. Now everything depends on us alone, the Israelis and the Palestinians.
Our blood is more precious than Caspian Sea oil. At least to us.
