Sabri sent us this short report According to most polls, the "reformist" Islamic fundamentalist Justice and Development Party (AKP)will come out as the first party but most likely they will not win the majority. Hence, some coalition led by the AKP seems most likely after the coming election on the 3rd of November, approved by the National Assembly yesterday. It is also possible but less likely that the other parties will win enough seats to form a coalition without the AKP. No matter what, Kemal Dervis, the current Economy Minister, will be in that coalition and continue the current neoliberal policies as dictated by the IMF. On top of that, all parties except the fascist nationalist Nationalist Movement Party support Turkey's entry into the EU and meeting the EU entry requirements on the economic front means further neoliberalization. Turkey promissed to the EU a blanced budget by the year 2005 and I don't see how they can do that without further neoliberalization.
One other possibility I can think of, however low its likelihood maybe, is the AKP's winning the majority but if that happens, then we are looking at a very difficult to imagine state of the future that includes the possibility of a military intervention. A few columnists associated with the newspapers of media mogul Aydin Dogan, a prominent member of the Turkish Industrialists and Businessmen Association, the main driving force behind the civilian overthrow of the Ecevit Government concluded yesterday, are trying to hedge against this possibility by arguing that the AKP and Kemal Dervis should join forces to form the government together if the AKP comes to the power. The main reason for them to be able to make such an absurd suggestion is that the Military backs Dervis, so even when the AKP gets the majority, Dervis (IMF, USA and partly EU), wins in one way or another. To sum up, the American press is right: The Turkish election result will be neoliberal. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University [EMAIL PROTECTED] Chico, CA 95929 530-898-5321 fax 530-898-5901
