http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/asia/story/0,4386,153191,00.html? RUN-UP TO 16TH PARTY CONGRESS Qinghua mafia will call the shots But a growing band of lawyers and economists could make a significant impact in the years ahead
By Leslie Fong NEWS ANALYSIS TECHNOCRATS, many belonging to the so-called Qinghua mafia, are certain to continue their dominant leadership position even after the 16th Chinese Communist Party congress this week. But they may well have to contend with an emerging band of economists and lawyers whose presence is already being felt and is likely to increase in the years ahead. According to some China-watchers, since economists and lawyers, by their training, are likely to have a greater awareness of the socio-political impact of policies than technocrats and, therefore, tend to have different policy preferences, their ascendancy could lead to significant changes in China's governance. All the more so if increasing numbers of them in the fifth generation leadership, dubbed the real reform generation, have studied in the United States and Europe. This, indeed, appears to be the trend. Some Chinese press reports say they already make up a quarter of division and bureau chiefs in China. But for now, though, technocrats still rule the roost. Their dominance is the result of a steady build-up over the past two decades. It began when the late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping started from 1982 to induct large numbers of university graduates, especially engineers, into the CCP to replace lowly-educated revolutionary cadres as provincial and central leaders. According to figures compiled by noted China-watchers Ting Wang of Hongkong and the US-based Li Cheng, the percentage of technocrats in the Politburo rose from zero in 1982 to 50 in 1987 and 75 in 1997. They made up 2 per cent of ministers in the State Council in 1982, 45 per cent in 1987 and 66 per cent in 1997. At the level of provincial party secretary, their presence rose from 0 per cent in 1982 to 25 per cent in 1987 and 61 per cent in 1997. Recent research has shown that a significant number of technocrats in top positions had graduated from Qinghua University, China's foremost engineering school. Of the 22 full members of the 15th Politburo, five are Qinghua graduates, including two in the all-powerful Standing Committee, Premier Zhu Rongji and Vice-President Hu Jintao. Mr Hu, heir apparent to top leader Jiang Zemin, is almost certain to be joined at the next Standing Committee by at least one Qinghua alumnus, Mr Wu Bangguo. A level below them and also from Qinghua are rising stars like Messrs Tian Chengping and Xi Jinping who occupy top positions in key provinces like Zhejiang. According to scholar Li Cheng, the network of Qinghua alumni in high places was the result of a concerted effort to groom national leaders by the late Jiang Nanxiang, who headed the university from 1952 to 1966. He pioneered a system of political counsellors - picking students who excelled academically and were reliable politically for an extra year of training in political skills. >From a total of 682 political counsellors at Qinghua from 1953 to 1966, two-thirds later became governors, ministers, corporate chiefs or university presidents. In contrast, the rise of economists, lawyers and those trained in finance, accounting and statistics is hardly as organised. And it is a more recent phenomenon. For example, of the 189 full members of the 14th Central Committee elected in 1992, only five, or 2.6 per cent, were trained in finance, accounting, economics or related disciplines. Now, there are at least 27 of them, or 9 per cent, among an elite group of 298 fourth-generation leaders selected for an in-depth study of political succession by scholar Li Cheng. How an economist would approach policy-making, compared with an engineer, is perhaps best illustrated by the case of the past and present head of the People's Bank of China, the country's de facto central bank. When Mr Li Guixian, a Soviet-trained chemical engineer, was running it, the bulk of the loans and fixed asset investments went into propping up inefficient state-owned enterprises, the least productive sector of China's economy. The present incumbent, Mr Dai Xianglong, an economist who enjoys the support of Premier Zhu Rongji, has turned things around and helped manage macro-economic policies better. It would be interesting to see how many more Dai Xianglongs will move into key positions after this week.
